Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/17/2018
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 12/18/18

After a crazy night of Kings’ minute's debauchery, multiple blowouts, Thibs late injury news and more let’s hope things settle down some on Tuesday. We’ve got some high-pace matchups and plenty of fantasy upside from such a small slate. Let’s break down some of the DFS considerations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

Point Guard

John WallJohn Wall FD - $10400 DK - $9800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 50.29 DK - 51.96
The new-look Wizards are coming off a shorthanded beatdown of the Lakers on Sunday (128-110) and did sacrifice some depth when they traded away Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers for Trevor Ariza. Wall played 42 minutes against LA and had his best fantasy game of the season with 40 points, 14 assists and six rebounds. The robust minutes and usage should continue for the foreseeable future considering that even though Washington is getting Ariza into the lineup, they are still without Otto Porter. Atlanta is the best-case scenario DFS matchup considering they are the 26th-ranked defense playing at the fastest pace in the league. It’s a dream spot for Wall who will likely be one of the highest owned players on the shorter slate.

Lonzo BallLonzo Ball FD - $6800 DK - $6500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.74 DK - 35.02
With both Ingram and Rondo out of the lineup, Ball has seen a steady uptick in minutes over the last week. In his last four games, Lonzo is averaging 35 minutes, 11 points, 6.5 assists, 6.3 rebounds and three steals. The defensive stats are really raising his floor and he’s shown a bounce in his step we didn’t see early in the season. Lon’s game (and especially from a fantasy perspective) is born on energy more than anything. He’s a fantastic passer, willing defender and if he scores (the shooting is awful) then all the better. I’m still willing to run him our that at these prices considering the Nets won’t likely take the minutes off the table.

Consider Spencer Dinwiddie if the Nets are still thin on personnel. Also, I wouldn’t totally mind Jalen Brunson again if Dennis Smith was out again.

Shooting Guard

Bradley BealBradley Beal FD - $8300 DK - $8500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 41.63 DK - 42.4
Beal played 39 minutes in the blowout against Los Angeles, putting up 24 shots and finishing with 25 points and 10 rebounds. He’s the other Washington candidate to see sustained minutes in and around 40 any time the game is close. The usage should also maintain considering the offense is now centered completely around the two guards. Beal is a little more scoring dependent to reach upper tier fantasy success, but he does pitch in enough rebounds and assists (about 4-5 per game in each stat) to not totally dust you if the shot isn’t falling.

Luka DoncicLuka Doncic FD - $7600 DK - $7700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 38.04 DK - 39.43
Dennis Smith is doubtful, J.J. Barea is questionable and we could see another night of Luka taking the reins on the Dallas offense. He’s coming off a 35 minutes game that saw him put up 28 points, nine assists and six rebounds against the Kings. This isn’t the exactly the same kind of matchup considering the Nuggets are much slower and better on defense, but are also very thin right now and the game should stay close. I don’t see Doncic as an overwhelming value play, but the opportunity is definitely there considering the Mavs’ injury issues in the backcourt. He’s clearly the point guard in that offense with DSJ off the court and has a higher floor in that role.

Torrey CraigTorrey Craig FD - $4200 DK - $3600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 21.06 DK - 20.99
Juancho Hernangomez is now questionable to play and the Nuggets are living through a true injury nightmare scenario this season. They are already without Gary Harris and Paul Millsap, Will Barton isn’t back yet and they don’t have many bodies left. Craig is coming off a 39 minute game against Toronto in which he put up 25 FanDuel points. He needs every minute for fantasy value but that is much more in play if Juancho sits this one as well.

 

Small Forward

Jeff GreenJeff Green FD - $5300 DK - $4800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.1 DK - 28.3
Trevor ArizaTrevor Ariza FD - $5800 DK - $4600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.53 DK - 27.31
We are going to be staring down the barrel of a Wizards’ cash-game onslaught on this slate. It’s tough to avoid when you consider the matchup against the Hawks and this is a team that is jettisoning two role players (Rivers and Oubre) and replacing them with Ariza. Plus Porter remains out so the team is dreadfully thin at the wing. I suspect we see both of these guys start (Green at the 4, Ariza at the 3) and there’s a chance they both play a ton as long as the game stays close. It’s a little unclear how Ariza will fit in the offense. I suspect he sees most of what Otto put out there, corner threes and some rebounds while Green has carved out some usage in the offense in his own right. I feel like we can get quite bullish on the run for both of these guys considering Washington needs to basically win out following the trade. There’s a lot of cash game safety in that narrative.

LeBron JamesLeBron James FD - $11500 DK - $10600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 50.99 DK - 52.25
There could potentially be a decent amount of cheap value coming in on this slate, possibly necessitating a pay up for Lebron against the Nets. Brooklyn doesn’t have anything in the way of interior defense, leaving plenty of opportunity for Lebron to get to the lane over and over. It hasn’t been all great shakes, from a fantasy perspective for Lebron in short term. He’s had his share of rough games and is anything but safe at these prices, especially the FanDuel salary which is really asking a lot. But this is a good matchup on a short slate and I could see ownership trending his direction if there are enough cheap options and fewer spots to pay them off.

 

Power Forward

Rondae Hollis-JeffersonRondae Hollis-Jefferson FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.76 DK - 29.45
Rodions KurucsRodions Kurucs FD - $4400 DK - $4000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.92 DK - 24.37
In the short term, in close game, the run has been there for Hollis-Jefferson who’s averaging close to 30 minutes per game over the last five and a 13 point, 5.4 rebound line. His minutes appear as safe as you can get for a Brooklyn player and should stick in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Since the minutes’ increase, he’s averaging 14 points, six rebounds and two steals per game. His length should help against the Lakers who run out a lot of wings and I suspect RHJ is able to stay on the floor for a lot of minutes in a closer game. His price hasn’t fully caught up to the opportunity and he’s an especially attractive play on FanDuel where the power forward position is always tough to fill.

Kurucs’ fate is tied directly to whether or not Allen Crabbe plays. The former has started the last two games with the latter out and averaged 29 minutes a contest. He’s been solid enough with 13 points and six rebounds per contest. He’ll never have a big-time usage in this offense, but the minutes could win out if he’s in the starting lineup again.

Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris FD - $5500 DK - $5100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.98 DK - 27.25
As we’ve said for all of the other positions, the Wizards are in the best DFS matchup around and should really concentrate their minutes around the starters and Morris off the bench. Markieff left last game early with an injury and never had to press back into the game because the Wiz had it firmly in hand. Expect to see him out there plenty on Tuesday against a Lakers’ team that will go small for long stretches. Morris’s salary often stays in check because his run is so variable. This is a smash spot for the Wiz power forward because of the matchup.

Strongly consider John Collins

 

Center

Dewayne DedmonDewayne Dedmon FD - $6600 DK - $5600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.63 DK - 34.26
Dedmon has played 28 or more minutes in five of the Hawks’ last six games and he’s averaging just about a double-double in that stretch (11 points, 9.3 rebounds) and putting up defensive stats along the way (2.2 steals, 0.7 blocks). Without Dwight Howard (and they weren’t all that good with him) the Wizards are allowing about 5% more rebounding and 4% more scoring that league average to opposing centers. Dedmon’s minutes appear *safe* at this point (though he plays for the Hawks, so take that with a grain of salt) and he isn’t priced out of consideration. The upside is for sure there if he can pile on some defensive stats, especially on FanDuel.

Jarrett AllenJarrett Allen FD - $6000 DK - $5500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.16 DK - 28.37
Allen isn’t a traditional center, but he is in a fine spot here on Tuesday. The Lakers don’t start centers who are particularly adept on offense (McGee or Chandler) which should help Allen stay out of foul trouble. And LA allows 4% more scoring and 5% more rebounding than league average to the position. Allen is athletic and has double-double potential in him with the right situation. This could be the case against the Lakers.

image sources

  • John Wall, Jordan Clarkson: (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

2 Visitor Comments

  1. I don’t see Ariza on FD

  2. Pretty sure Kief won’t get stuck on LeBron for long stretches tonight.

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.



DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!