Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Wednesday 1/2/19
How’s 2019 treating you so far? So far, so good over here and we've got a big Wednesday in the NBA on tap to keep the good feels of the New Year going.
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Tomas Satoransky FD - $6200 DK - $4600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.8 DK - 28.66
With John Wall out for the remainder of the season, the Wiz should continue to deploy very tight rotations with the starters running (nearly) crazy amounts of minutes. Even if Otto Porter came back for this game, we should still see heavy run out of Satoransky, Beal and others. Satoransky put up 20 points, six assists and four rebounds in 33 minutes against the Hornets and sees almost nothing in the way of a price increase. I suspect the minutes’ floor is more than there even with Chesson Randle and Ron Baker behind him on the bench. The price is much better on DraftKings and he’ll likely be a popular play on that site. The FanDuel price has really corrected in the short term.
Lonzo Ball FD - $6500 DK - $7200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 32.33
Lonzo got buzzed off his minutes last game, running only 31 and finishing with a disappointing 13 points and six assists. Even without Lebron James and to a lesser extent Rajon Rondo, the Lakers don’t *need* to play Lonzo major minutes because they can run sets through Ingram and even use Josh Hart as a point of attack. That being said, it does seem like Lonzo has close to 40-minute upside. I’m still bullish on the FanDuel price because Lonzo has so many ways to pitch in alone the fantasy line.
Luka Doncic FD - $7800 DK - $7800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 42.8 DK - 44.59
Doncic and the rest of the Mavs lost minutes last game when they got blown out by the Thunder. But they’ll have a chance for a bounce-back game against an injury-riddled Hornets’ team. Before that game, Doncic was averaging more than 17 shots per game in the short term and Dallas has clearly turned over the reins to him to run the offense even with Dennis Smith Jr. back in the mix. The usage is way up since the beginning of the season (as is the price) with the only real concern on Doncic being that he never goes crazy with the minutes. Rick Carlisle and crew are managing that run and it will always cap his upside because he’s not going switch up rotations in order to chase a win. That being said, Doncic is clearly a cash game play on this slate and won’t face much resistance from the
Hornets’ perimeter defense.
Bradley Beal FD - $9800 DK - $8600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 42.94 DK - 43.59
With Wall out, Beal sees a big projected (and actual) bump in usage rate going forward. In the last three games without Wall, Beal has taken 19, 27 and 33 (3 OTs) shots. He’s also playing minutes around 38+ per night with the Wiz still (I suppose) hanging on to playoff hopes with their current roster. The gift here is the dream matchup against the Hawks who run the fastest pace (107.4) with the fifth-worst defense in the league. Stacking the Wizards will once again be a popular cash game option and we haven’t even gotten to some of the value coming out of their team on Wednesday. If anything, Beal could be the odd-man out in cash games considering the price and some other viable big-money options going here. But he has such a high floor with the potential scoring opportunity.
Keep an eye out for the Hornets’ starting lineup. Jeremy Lamb is out which means they could really mix things up. We could see Michael Kidd-Gilchrist start with Nic Batum moving to the two. Or maybe Malik Monk jumps into the starting lineup. There are a lot of minutes (and some usage) to go around in this situation.
Paul George FD - $10000 DK - $9200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.78 DK - 51.07
PG seems more than able to coexist with Westbrook in this offense and has been awesome of late. Over his last five games, George is putting up 29 points, nine rebounds, and 2.5 steals in 37 minutes. He's been a fantasy superstar even sharing the court with Russ which has always been the issue with George. In a game against the Lakers without Lebron, George offers a lot of upside with plenty of floor because of the crazy minutes. As long as the Lakers can hang in this game, George should be able to maintain cash game value at these prices. His DraftKings' tag looks especially advantageous.
Jeff Green FD - $5600 DK - $4400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 28.66
Even with Otto Porter back, I still think Jeff Green has a solid floor of minutes expectation in this game. He’s versatile enough to play multiple positions and has played 33 and 38 in the last two games. He piled on the defensive stats against the Hornets, which we really can’t bank on, but I do think they minutes will more than make up for it. Green's ability to play between the two and the four means he can stay on the court for longer stretches and that makes the DraftKings' price especially enticing. It's a tougher pull on FanDuel considering he might dip down to just 30-32 minutes.
There are quite a few other small forward considerations here on Wednesday. Justise Winslow is a fine price considering his new role as the Miami point guard.
Anthony Davis FD - $12700 DK - $11800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 68.11 DK - 67.18
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. The guy crushed souls (again) on New Year’s Eve when he was randomly and unceremoniously scratched right after lineup lock with an illness that no one (besides him presumably) had any idea about. So if you are (once again) gun shy on playing this guy in cash I totally get it. And he’s still walking into one of the best matchups for an opposing big that you’ll find in the NBA. The Nets allow about 5% more scoring and 6% more rebounds to opposing bigs on the season (they are particularly susceptible to opposing centers). If he’s cleared to play then I’m fine running him back out there in cash games with the hope that the ownership will be a little lower because folks are still pissed about Monday night.
Ed Davis FD - $4200 DK - $3400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 20.92 DK - 20.79
Rodions Kurucs FD - $4800 DK - $5200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.41 DK - 23.53
With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out for the foreseeable future, the Nets are going to have to fill even more of their power forward minutes. Allen Crabbe remains out as well, meaning Kurucs should stay in the starting lineup. It’s unclear if they will end up with someone like Jared Dudley or DeMarre Carroll starting but there should be more than enough minutes to go around and I do see Davis getting more run in the short term. He can fill it up on a per minute basis, scoring 1.03 FanDuel points per minute on the back of a crazy awesome rebound rate. Even a slight uptick in minutes to the low 20’s would make him a cash play on both sites. Keep an eye out for the starting lineup in this game, but I feel comfortable playing both of these guys in cash.
Strongly consider Jerami Grant
Julius Randle FD - $8500 DK - $8000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 53.58 DK - 56.32
Even with Anthony Davis (likely) returning to the fold for Wednesday, I still think we are in a great spot here with Randle. In fact, stacking the two Pelicans’ bigs in this spot would appear to have an incredibly high floor in cash games. Like I said with Davis, the Nets get blitzed by opposing bigs and are even thinner in the frontcourt without RHJ in the mix. Randle is averaging 37 minutes per game over the last five with a 24 point, nine rebound line. From a fantasy perspective, he can coexist playing with Davis and even at elevated price points, I think this is where you want to allocate your top tier salary on Wednesday.
Thomas Bryant FD - $6600 DK - $4700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.77 DK - 36.55
Bryant appears firmly cemented as the team’s starting center in terms of real minutes (and not just a ceremonial starting role). He’s beasted over the last two games, playing 30 and 36 minutes respectively and averaging 16 points and nine rebounds. That’s more than enough to get the job done considering the price hasn’t moved all that much with the new opportunity. Considering he won’t be challenged all that much at the defensive end against the Hawks, it stands to reason we see another night of big minutes out of Bryant.