featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/03/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Wildcard Round

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“Colts” Indianapolis Colts (2) vs. “Texans” Houston Texans (-2)

 

Key DFS plays

Deshaun WatsonDeshaun Watson FD 8400 DK 6700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 20.73 DK - 21.15
Watson is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and for good reason. He finished the season as the fourth-highest fantasy scoring quarterback and the Texans come in with the most projected points (25) of the four-game slate. Watson was a competent passer this season (69% completion percentage) with over 4,000 yards despite playing much of the season with a WR group decimated by injuries (outside of Hopkins). His ability to run gives him the ideal cash game floor and he had the third-most quarterback rushing yards on the season (551). The debate will probably about which quarterback is *worth* paying up for on this slate between Watson and Luck. I'll take Watson for the aforementioned running threat and slight edge in team points.

DeAndre HopkinsDeAndre Hopkins FD 8800 DK 8700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 20.78 DK - 23.93
Hopkins is the clear big-money wide receiver to target on this slate and I suspect he’ll have overwhelming cash ownership. He’s had five-straight double-digit target games, capped by a 16 target Week 17 in which he finished with 12 catches for 147 yards against Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars. He has 115 (2nd in the league) catches on the season without a single drop. He also finished with the second-most receiving yards (1572). No other receiver on this slate is even close to Hopkins in terms of fantasy floor. You have to pay top dollar on both sites, but it’s worth the salary cap hit.

Lamar MillerLamar Miller FD 6400 DK 4900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.61 DK - 13.38
After sitting out Week 16 with an injury, Miller was back to carrying the workload for the Texans in the final game of the season. He ran the ball 17 times for 56 yards against the Jaguars and saw a couple of targets in the passing game. He finished the season 15th in running back usage (17.5 touches per game) and finished with his best yards per attempt (4.6) since 2014 when he was with the Dolphins. The Colts were good against the rush this season (4th in DVOA) so it isn’t like Miller is getting a cake walk here. But stacking him with Watson makes a lot of sense in cash this week as a slight home favorite and Miller does represent some savings at the position, especially on DraftKings.

T.Y. HiltonT.Y. Hilton FD 7700 DK 7800
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 14.84 DK - 17.87
Houston was much worse against the pass this season (18th in DVOA) than the run and Hilton should see plenty of targets in this one. After a string of double-digit target weeks, he’s *only* seen 8, 8 and 6 over the last three games, though some of that had to do with script issues. The Colts move him around a lot and it will be interesting to see if they can get him away from Johnathan Joseph on the left side and Kareem Jackson in the slot. Per Pro Football Focus, Shareece Wright is the Texans’ lowest-rated CB and I suspect we see Hilton moved into that matchup as much as possible. Among the big money receivers on this slate, I much prefer Hopkins to the rest of the group, but Hilton has tremendous upside especially if the Colts trail early.

Other considerations

Marlon Mack looks to be in line for the bulk of the Indy running back carries on Saturday. I prefer Miller for cheaper and in a better matchup. The Texans ranked number one in DVOA against the rush this season, putting Mack in a tough spot.

Eric Ebron was mostly a disappointment over the last four weeks of the season after his 16 target game in Week 12. The price didn’t come all the way back to Earth so we are still paying a premium on him at a tough position. But because there are so few options at tight end you probably need to consider him, especially on DraftKings.

I think you can take a shot on a cheap Deandre Carter if Keke Coutee is out again.

 

“Colts” Seattle Seahawks (1) vs. “Cowboys” Dallas Cowboys (-1)

 

Key DFS plays

Ezekiel ElliottEzekiel Elliott FD 8800 DK 9000
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 20.04 DK - 22.77
Elliott sat out Week 17 with the team managing some vague injury issues. It doesn’t sound like they are anything to warrant real concern going into Saturday and Elliott should be ready to go against the Seahawks. Considering it’s the playoffs, Zeke draws a somewhat favorable matchup against Seattle who ranks 17th against the rush this season. Elliott should be the highest-owned running back in cash considering the sheer amount of touches he’s likely to see this week. His 26.6 touches per game (carries + targets) were easily the most in the league this season, 10% more than the next closest running back (Todd Gurley, 24 per game). Elliott’s use in the passing game makes him a game script independent back and it sure looks like locking both he and Hopkins into cash makes a lot of sense on this short slate.

Doug BaldwinDoug Baldwin FD 7200 DK 6200
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 12.51 DK - 15.38
He’s a little pricey on FanDuel, but I do like the DraftKings salary for Baldwin here. The Seahawks barely threw the ball this season (relative to the rest of the league) so Baldwin’s numbers aren’t eye-popping. But he still led the team in targets (73) despite missing three games and taking a zero in Week 1 when it looked like he was likely playing hurt against the Broncos (he sat out the next three weeks). He had six or more targets in half his games from that point on including a 7/126/1 line on 12 targets in Week 16 against the Chiefs. Baldwin lines up primarily in the slot where he’ll draw Jourdan Lewis most of the time. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Baldwin should be the Seahawks’ target leader in this game regardless.

Blake JarwinBlake Jarwin FD 5800 DK 3300
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 8.43 DK - 10.9
Jarwin came on strong over the last four weeks of the season. He had seven or more targets in three of the four games after taking over TE1 reins in Dallas and capped it with a 7/119/3 performance against the Giants in Week 17. The yards and (definitely) the touchdowns are outliers, but you have to like the rather consistent production out of a terrible tight end position. He’s still coming very cheap on DraftKings and could end up the highest-owned TE play on that site.

Other considerations

Chris Carson could be in for a lot of carries if the Seahawks can jump out to an early lead. He’s carried the ball 19+ times in each of the last four weeks with three of those games cresting over 100 yards.

I don't mind Tyler Lockett and Michael Gallup as cheaper flyers.

And finally, Amari Cooper came back down to Earth after the 10/217/3 line in Week 14. He failed to top 32 yards in a game since. But he did see 11 targets in Week 17 against the Giants and will likely be heavily involved on Saturday. For the money, I much prefer Hopkins and Hilton, but Cooper has as much upsdie as any WR going.
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image sources

  • Titans Texans Football: (AP Photo/George Bridges)

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