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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/10/2019
James Davis

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Divisional Round - Sunday

With the Eagles, Saints, Patriots, and Chargers playing we actually have some decent players to pick from. But do we have enough cheap value to wind up with lineups that don't include throwaway players that barely touch the ball? Ugh. Let's see what we can do.

Looking for Saturday's article? Doug wrote up that two game slate here!

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“Chargers” Los Angeles Chargers (4) vs. “Patriots” New England Patriots (-4)

As we get deeper into the playoffs we usually wind up with more good players, which is nice, but we also wind up with worse match-ups, which isn't as nice. The Pats and Chargers were both in the "sneaky good" defensive category this season. Neither of them is necessarily known for their defensive reputation, but each has things they do well. The Chargers were the 12th toughest team in the NFL against the run, and the 9th toughest against the pass. The Patriots allowed the 5th fewest yards per pass to opposing QBs this season, but were pretty bad against the run, allowing the 3rd highest yards per carry in the NFL. This is all relative on a two game slate, of course, but I wanted to get the context out of the way before we got into the specific picks.

Melvin GordonMelvin Gordon FD 7400 DK 6200
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 15.19 DK - 16.88
If New England was one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs this season, we should probably think long and hard about running Gordon out there on a two game slate. The case against Gordon is a pretty good one, though. He was bottled up against the Ravens last week, turning his 18 touches into just 43 yards. He split time with Ekeler, and missed a few series with an injury. He's a 4 point dog, so there is some chance that the Chargers are playing from behind here. He also came up with a sore knee after last week, and has been missing practice this week. I still believe that all of that is just precautionary, though. Gordon punched in the Chargers' goal line carry last week, and the Chargers as a whole ran pretty bad in terms of turning scoring attempts into touchdowns vs. field goals. And really, playing Gordon comes down to comparing him against the other options on this slate. You could grab one side of the New England running back by committee, and there is an argument for playing Michel on FanDuel (or even James White on DK). You could play Alvin Kamara, which gets you halfway there. You aren't going to play the Eagles guys, though, which leaves you with precious few options. For my money, Gordon is one of the top two for this slate.

Keenan AllenKeenan Allen FD 7100 DK 6400
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 12.76 DK - 15.85
What's the correct number of targets for Keenan Allen? With everything on the line he only saw 6 targets against Baltimore, but that still led the team, and the Chargers looked so dominant against the Ravens offense that I think they just didn't want to take any chances. It should look a lot different against New England, who should be both stronger offensively but weaker defensively. The big feather in Allen's hat for this weekend, though, is his price. At the low $7000s on FanDuel and the mid-$6000s on DraftKings you can play him and still not break the bank. You're getting a %12-%15 discount on his peak prices, and while we haven't seen his peak performance recently I am not overly concerned. He's either the second or third best receiver on this slate, and getting him on the lower end of mid-range prices is probably too good a value to ignore.

I'm also looking at Hunter Henry for the "tight end I am praying does something" position. He's incredibly cheap, and when he was healthy he was seeing 5-8 targets per game. He's also a reasonable red zone option, having hauled in 4 touchdowns this season as well. He's not a guy you'd want to play on a regular season main slate, but on a tiny slate like this you've got to consider him.

Tom BradyTom Brady FD 8200 DK 5600
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 19.04 DK - 20.21
Julian EdelmanJulian Edelman FD 7600 DK 6300
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 14.88 DK - 18.66
We have Brady projected for the most total fantasy points of any quarterback on this slate, and like Gordon, you're still getting him at a discount from his peak prices. Brady's performance has come and gone this season, but he looked very much the picture of the old Brady in a must win week 17 performance against the Jets. He dropped 250 yards and 4 touchdowns on 33 passing attempts, and ran the Jets off the field before they knew what was happening. When push comes to shove the Pats tend to rely upon the pass, and it's hard to imagine them not going back what's worked for them here. As for Edelman, we've been on him since October. In normal games he gets 10+ targets, and Gordon's unexpected disappearance alongside Gronk's decline have him as the centerpiece of the Pats' offense. He has touchdowns in three of his last four games, and only the total blowout of the Jets stopped his double digit target streak. He and Brady should get on track early here, and Edelman is cheap enough that he'd be hard to ignore.

Like I wrote above, both Sony Michel and James White could see some DFS play this weekend if people elect not to pay more for the premium options in Gordon and Kamara. White in particular is an interesting budget option on DraftKings where the point per reception gives him a solid floor. I won't be playing Gronk though.

 

 

“Eagles” Philadelphia Eagles (8) vs. “Saints” New Orleans Saints (-8)

The Eagles are fresh off of a ridiculous victory against the Bears, where they went from looking utterly hopeless to completely inevitable in a matter of moments, and there is certainly some growing mystique around what they are capable of with Nick Foles under center. Vegas doesn't seem to care, though, and the Saints are the biggest favorites of the weekend. This game also has the highest total, so there is certainly something to sink our teeth into.

So this game is a rematch of one of the most lopsided games of the season, where the Saints beat Philly 48-7. That's all well and good, except that it basically means that game is worthless as a comparison point. We have no clue what either team would have done if the game had stayed closer, and we learn precious little about what each team had planned given how quickly the game got out of hand.

Alvin KamaraAlvin Kamara FD 8400 DK 7300
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 19.23 DK - 21.26
It's hard to picture Kamara not being the chalk option at running back for the Sunday slate, and I think he'll make headway into people's weekend long lineups as well. As 8 point favorites, the Saints are very likely to lean on their dynamic running back. He exploded on the Eagles for 108 total yards on 14 touches before the game got out of hand, and the birds looked totally lost in trying to deal with him. Any thoughts about conserving his legs for the playoffs will now be gone, and he should be fully unleashed here. And let's be real, Kamara was already awesome while he was partially leashed. He's incredible on a per-play basis, and is involved regardless of the game script. He can touch 20 carries when the Saints are ahead, and even touched 20 targets this season at one point. The Eagles are a bottom 10 running defense this season, and I can't imagine them containing him here.

Ted GinnTed Ginn FD 4500 DK 4400
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 8.06 DK - 9.65
As good as the Saints are at passing the ball, I'm actually not over the moon for their passing game from a DFS perspective for this weekend. Pairing Brees with Kamara or Michael Thomas can be a winning big tournament strategy, but the floor is low enough that I'd rather not spend up for the pleasure of trying it in cash games. I am pretty interested in Ginn as a budget option, though. Ginn was very effective early in the season before missing an incredible amount of time with his knee injury. He was active during week 16 against the Steelers, and was very solid - hauling in 5 of his 8 targets for 74 yards. I actually view it as a great sign that they shut him down for week 17, as it indicates that he is a part of their playoff plan. He's super cheap, and enables a lot of spending elsewhere. He's my favorite punt receiver of the weekend.

Nick FolesNick Foles FD 7400 DK 5400
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 17.9 DK - 18.87
We'll swing it over to Nick Foles and skip the preamble. By now you're aware of his sports movie story, as the career back-up has now established himself as a quarterback to be fear in games that matter. He had a hard time getting going against the Bears last week, but ultimately still orchestrated the game winning drive and a solid if unspectacular 16.54 fantasy points against one of the league's toughest defenses. This weekend he'll get the Saints, who have been a bottom 4 team against opposing passers all season long. Given how ineffective the three headed monster of Sproles/Smallwood/Johnson were last week, plans A, B, and C almost certainly have to involve Foles throwing the ball all over the place. The Eagles should be trailing here, and it's hard to imagine Foles losing his opportunity. He's cheap enough that you have to consider him, even if you are paying all time high prices.

The rest of the Eagles passing game gives me pause, though. Foles threw 40 times last week and didn't target any individual receiver 10+ times. He had been relying on Zach Ertz to move the chains, but Golden Tate took a lot of those looks last week. I'd only really want to play Ertz in my cash games, but if you can get Foles and the right +1 I could see pairing him with either Tate, Jeffery, or Ertz as being a winning big tournament strategy this weekend.

Alright - that's it! Thank the football Gods for some reasonable options here. See you in our members' only chat this weekend!

 

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