Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Desert Classic

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

 

Desert Classic

This week the PGA Tour travels to La Quinta, California for the Desert Classic, formerly known as the CareerBuilder Challenge, Humana Challenge, and most famously the Bob Hope Classic. On the surface, the field is not one of the strongest with an average OWGR of 324 but does include the #1 player in the world, Justin Rose and #7 player in the world and defending champion of this event, Jon Rahm.

It is one of the most popular Pro-Am events of the season and with that comes a multi-course rotation. For the fourth straight year, the Pete Dye PGA West Stadium Course will play host with the PGA West Nicklaus Course and LA Quinta Country Club also used. Each player will get one round on each course the first three days which will be followed by a cut and a final round on Sunday that will be played at the Stadium Course. All three courses are shorter Par 72 setups with La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course both playing easier than the Stadium Course. Looking at past leaderboards a small trend appears that the preferred draw would be to play one of the two easier courses on day one and two followed by a third round at the Stadium Course. Not only does it give you a chance to get off to a hot start on the easier courses but it also gives those golfers a chance to play the more difficult Stadium Course on back to back days which would be an advantage no doubt.

While the Stadium Course is the more difficult test, all three courses are set up more on the easy side to accommodate the vast number of amateurs playing in the first three days. This makes the event turn into a shootout as we have seen the winning score reach -20 or better every single year. The low scoring and use of three courses has me going with a simple stats model this week that includes Strokes Gained: Approach, Par 4 Scoring(emphasis on 400-450 yards), Birdie or Better %, and Bogey Avoidance.

Let's now take a look at each course, previous winners, and then dive into the picks. After that, makes sure to grab a copy of my DFS PGA Cheatsheet where I list all my top plays, top bets and have a ton of advanced stats and a customizable model.

The Course

PGA West TPC Stadium Course
Par 72 - 7,113 Tards
Greens - Bermuda

PGA West Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par 72 - 7,159 Yards
Greens - Bermuda

La Quinta Country Club
Par 72 - 7,060
Greens - Bermuda

Previous Five Winners

• 2018 - Jon Rahm(-22)
• 2017 - Hudson Swafford(-20)
• 2016 - Jason Dufner(-25)
• 2015 - Bill Haas(-22)
• 2014 - Patrick Reed(-28)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring with emphasis on the 400-450 yards range
• Bogey Avoidance

When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet, the tools over at FantasyNational.com, and the Future of Fantasy Golfanac.

Top Tier Targets

Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#19)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($11,300)

Cantlay only shows up at #25 on my overall rankings this week but take away the course history weight, as he has never played here, and he jumps into a tie for #1 with Justin Rose. He is coming off a terrific 2017-18 season where he broke through for his first career win(Shriners Open) and made the cut in 21 of 23 events(91.3%) with seven Top 10's and 15 Top 25 finishes. He has, so far, carried that momentum over into this season as he started out with a T17 at the Farmers Insurance Open, a T7 at the WGC HSBC Champions, and a runner up finish at the Shriners Open. Looking at the last 24 rounds stats trends(via FNGC), Cantlay ranks 5th in SG: Approach, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in SG: Par 4 Scoring and only 50th in Birdie or Better Gained but 9th in Opportunities Gained. With his slight discount off Rose and Rahm combined with his high floor and ceiling, Cantlay is my top overall play and safe in all formats.

Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#54)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($9,800)

The second slot was a tough choice for me between Charles Howell III and Chez Reavie but the discount on both sites was more than enough to sway me in Reavie's direction this week. His price has hit a season-high but don't be too alarmed as the field is weaker and he also checks off all the boxes. He missed the cut here in 2015 but has since made three straight cuts here with two Top 20 finishes and has terrific form coming into this year's event. He is coming off a T3 last week at the Sony Open and a T26 at the Mayakoba Classic and has now shot in the 60's in eight straight rounds. He stands out statistically as well ranking 3rd on my sheet in SG: Approach, 7th in Proximity, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in BoB% and 29th in Bogey Avoidance. If you want to go balanced in your cash games this week, Reavie is a great place to start and he also comes with upside in this field as he ranks 1st overall in DraftKings scoring over the last 12 rounds.

Mid Tier Targets

Richy Werenski
World Golf Ranking (#164)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,600)

The first thing I look at on my sheet when analyzing who to write up is a combination of course history and current form. There were two players who stood out in the mid-range and I will be starting with the cheaper of the two, Richy Werenski. He has made just 57% of his cuts since his rookie season two years ago but returns to the Desert Classic with some nice course history having not only made the cut in those two seasons but finishing T29 last year and T9 in 2017. He also comes in with some form this time around having made all five cuts to start the season with three straight Top 25's including a T3 at the Mayakoba Classic. His stats don't stand out on my sheet(combo of last year and this year) but looking at the trends over the last 12 rounds(via FNGC) he ranks 7th in SG: Approach, 14th in SG: Par 4 scoring, 13th in Birdie or Better Gained, and 5th in DraftKigns scoring. All things considered, Werenski is a target in all formats this week.

Si Woo Kim
World Golf Ranking (#64)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,200)

Si Woo is coming off a missed cut at the Sony Open last week but stands out this week for many reasons. It starts with the Pete Dye narrative as Si Woo has absolutely destroyed his courses over the years and the Stadium Course is another of his designs. Looking at the last 24 rounds data at Pete Dye courses, Si Woo ranks 1st in SG: Total, 6th in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in SG: Around the Green, 4th in SG: Par 4 scoring and 16th in Birdie or Better Gained. He finished T9 here in his only other appearance at the Desert Classic and outside that missed cut, comes in with some form with four finishes of T26 or better so far this season. He is a target in all formats this week.

Value Targets

Anders Albertson
World Golf Ranking (#230)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,400)

After a successful season on the Web.com Tour where he won once and finished 3rd in the money earnings, Anders Albertson enters his rookie season on the PGATour with high hopes. Things got off to a rocky start as he missed the cut at the Safeway Open but has only gotten better since with four straight made cuts including a T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a T15 at his last event, the RSM Classic. Looking at the last 24 rounds data, his short game and putting have been downright atrocious but does rank 6th in this field in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in SG: Approach and 28th in DraftKings scoring. I need to see more before I roster him in cash games but he most definitely has upside for GPP formats, especially at these prices.

Harris English
World Golf Ranking (#308)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($7,500)

English finished the 2017-18 season in a big slump missing eight of his final nine cuts but has started to turn it around in the new season. While the upside hasn't been there, he has made all six cuts going back to the Safeway Open including a T22 last week at the Sony Open. More good news as he returns to the Desert Classic with some nice course history having made all five cuts here in his career with two Top 20 finishes including a T11 a year ago. He doesn't really stand out statistically but over the last 24 rounds, he does rank 29th in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Par 4 Scoring, and 39th in Bogey Avoidance. I love the value he offers for GPP's in the mid $7K range on both sites and if you are playing a more stars and scrubs strategy for cash games, he is an option there as well.

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.