FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - 1/28/19

 

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Point Guard

Shabazz Napier FD - $4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.33 DK - 25.64
Napier was epic chalk on Friday night with the news that Spencer Dinwiddie would miss the game. Thought the former wouldn’t draw the start, the Nets do allocate a fair amount of minutes to that position off the bench. He played 28 minutes against the Knicks on Friday and finished with 18 points despite shooting only 3-13 from the field. He won’t draw a fantastic matchup against the Celtics on Monday, but the price is still in the lower middle tier for a guy who should, once again, see plenty of minutes and usage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $3800 DK - $3800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 22 DK - 21.56
Patrick Beverley FD - $4600 DK - $4500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.55 DK - 28
The two guys are coming off another run of major minutes on Sunday that saw them both easily hit value. Beverley put up a monster line with 16 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists against the Kings. That’s an outlier game of course, but the minutes are safe for now. He’s 35 or more in each of the last five games. The stats can come and go at times because of how the Clippers roll, but I think the floor is plenty high enough against this Hawks’ team.

Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander’s minutes are a little more variable than Beverley’s. That will make the latter a bit more of a GPP play. He can run 22 as easy as he can see mid 30’s minutes. The game against the Kings was also a bit of an outlier seeing as how he got to the line seven times, but the Hawks offer such a great matchup that I don’t mind stacking these two guys together in cash games.

Strongly consider Stephen Curry, but this does seem like a spot to save money

Shooting Guard

Monte Morris FD - $4100 DK - $4600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.32 DK - 28.46
Jamal Murray has already been ruled for Monday’s game and we could see another solid set of minutes for Morris off the bench. He played 27 against the Sixers on Saturday night and finished with 10 points and three assists on 5-11 shooting. Morris can score in bunches in the right situation and is still coming very cheap on FanDuel where he’d sure help to fit some of the other big money plays on this slate.

We are going to run into a similar issue at power forward, but shooting guard is problematic on Monday. We have some options, but they all have a little caveat attached to them. Let’s go through some of the list.

Justin Holiday is playing a lot of minutes with Kyle Anderson out of the lineup and the Grizzlies just generally sucking. He’s put together a few decent fantasy performances as well. But the nature of his fantasy relevance is mostly around the shot falling and that’s going to become increasingly problematic as the price climbs. He’s still a value, but he can burn you as well.

Our system doesn’t mind Marcus Smart but understand that he isn’t going to play more than 30 minutes in this matchup and his fantasy profile dictates that everything come together (assists, steals, etc) in order to hit value.

The Knicks could be without Frank Ntilikina in this game, meaning more guard minutes open up for a team obviously in the tank. Tim Hardaway Jr. could play enough to hit value here.

 

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Small Forward

Kevin Durant FD - $9800 DK - $9400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 48.02 DK - 48.76
Look, I get it, the Warriors have a total embarrassment of riches in terms of talent right now. They are starting an all-star team, and should really take it to the Pacers on Monday. But with some other value plays at the various positions, we are left having to pay up somewhere and Durant offers one possible big money pay off. He’s coming off a 33 points, nine rebound game against the Celtics on Saturday, but the production has been down a little in the short term with Boogie Cousins now fully in the fold and the Warriors all the way healthy. But like I said, we are in something of a numbers game on where to spend salary and I think Durant has a high enough floor in this matchup.

Will Barton FD - $6300 DK - $6900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 41.15 DK - 43.25
With Jamal Murray ruled out, Barton should draw the start again at point guard for the Nuggets. He was in this spot against the Sixers on Saturday, but the blowout led to him only seeing 26 minutes. He had 16 points and four rebounds on 6-11 shooting. In a closer game, I think we’d see him play closer to 33 minutes and the price is still well low enough to consider as a cash play on both sites. The guy is a pure scorer and Nikola Jokic is so adept at finding the open man that Barton should continue seeing high-quality looks. This isn’t an ideal matchup because of the pace, but Barton is still coming too cheap if he’s running with the starters.

Tobias Harris FD - $7800 DK - $8000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 40.58 DK - 41.5
Harris has something of an underwhelming game on Sunday against the Kings, shooting 6-17 from the field for 18 points. The rest of the Clippers put it together in the win and Harris wasn’t asked to do all that much. But he’s still seen a usage bump with Danilo Gallinari off the court. Oh, and did I mention that the Hawks are about as good a DFS matchup as you could ask for? They have the 26th ranked defense and play at the league’s fastest pace.

 

Power Forward

Marvin Williams FD - $5400 DK - $5300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.95 DK - 26.97
Power forward on FanDuel is close to a mess and I’m not liking much of anything I’m seeing here early on. Williams has played fairly consistent minutes over the short term, with 29+ in each of the last three games. That’s led to an average line of 11 points and five rebounds per game in that stretch. He’ll also throw in the occassional assist and steal in there to not leave you totally out in the cold on the fantasy performance. He’ll face a great compromised Knicks’ defense that doesn’t defend opposing bigs at all.

Okay, here’s the thing: after Marvin (and even he’s not that great), the pickings get so slim so quick especially on FanDuel were we don’t get the multi-position piece. If you think Jaren Jackson Jr. keeps up the minutes then he’s something of a *value* against the Nuggets. But this is a very bad matchup and it’s hard to trust.

If John Collins crests over 33 minutes then he’s got solid upside. But he plays for Hawks and with that comes all the trappings of a team in the tank.

Montrezl Harrell has a great matchup against the Hawks but is still coming off the bench and that always comes with a lot of variance.

I almost want to trust Paul Millsap but you’ve seen the minutes lately.

 

Center

Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $10800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 46.91 DK - 49.05
Jokic is very expensive and unlike some of the other big money plays on this slate, is more at risk of losing his minutes. But man, it’s tough to ignore what this guy is able to do when the run is there. In his last two games he’s averaging 36 minutes per and a cool 30 point, 20 rebound, eight assist line. Um, ok. The guy is, of course, a legit superstar at this point. He draws a slower matchup against the Grizzlies, but considering the amount of savings we get at nearly every other position, I think it’s fine to slightly overpay for Jokic here. The Nuggets have the eye on the prize right now considering they have the second-best record in the Western Conference despite dealing with injuries all season long.

Al Horford FD - $6900 DK - $6400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 35.29 DK - 34.87I
If we can trust Horford to play 32-33 minutes then this is an A+ matchup for the Celtics’ *center*. The reason I couch that statement is Boston doesn’t play Horford like your traditional big, ranging him out along the perimeter to stretch the defense and hit outside shots. But this is still such a great matchup against the Nets who allow 5% more rebounding and 7% more scoring than league average to opposing bigs. Big Al has double-doubled in the last two games and missed a third by just a rebound against the Hawks. This one is a clear matchup play at his price point.