Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Waste Management Phoenix Open

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    Waste Management Phoenix Open

    This week the PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale, Arizona for the Waste Management Phoneix Open. After back to back weeks with multi-course rotations we get just one course this week, TPC Scottsdale, which is most famously known for the iconic Par 3, 16th hole which is completely surrounded by seating and setup with a stadium atmosphere. The event also draws a strong field again this year as three of the Top 10(Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele), seven of the Top 20, and 23 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

    Overall, the course is fairly generous off the tee but the longer hitters will also have to be accurate to avoid the bunkers in key landing areas. Looking at some of the quotes from players over the years(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac), the rough can be played from so bombers really just need to avoid those bunkers and the rough is not very penal which also leads to a bomb and wedge gameplan. Where players separate themselves comes down to the approach shots to the receptive greens which, as you can see below, will come heavily from the 150-175 yard range and with a winning score average of -16 over the last five years I will also be heavily weighing Birdie or Better %. While there are only three Par 5's on the course, they do produce around 33% of the overall birdies on a yearly basis and with the eagle rate I will also be using Par 5 Birdie or Better %. There is one Par 4 under 400 yards(driveable 17th) and then five that fall between 400 and 450 yards and five between 450 and 500 yards so I will be looking at overall Par 4 Scoring.

    The weather this week is intriguing in that the first two days before the cut look excellent with low winds and temps in the mid 60's to low 70's. Saturday as is where it gets interesting as the current forecast shows winds ranging from 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 32 mph and then throw in the chance of rain and tempuratures in the high 50's to low 60's. Yikes! Stay tuned for an updated forecast(click link at bottom of article)as lineup lock approaches. Let's get into the picks.

    The Course

    TPC Scottsdale - Scottsdale, AZ
    Par 71 - 7,266 Yards

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Hole Composition

    Approach Shot Distribution

    Previous Five Winners

    • 2018 - Gary Woodland(-18)
    • 2017 - Hideki Matsuyama(-17)
    • 2016 - Hideki Matsuyama(-14)
    • 2015 - Brooks Koepka(-15)
    • 2014 - Kevin Stadler(-16)

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(25%-15% Approach vs. Off the Tee)
    • Birdie or Better %
    • Par 5 Birdie or Better
    • Par 4 Scoring

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet, the tools over at FantasyNational.com, and the Future of Fantasy Golfanac.

    Top Tier Targets

    Rickie Fowler
    World Golf Ranking (#14)
    Vegas Odds (22/1)
    Draftkings ($9,400)
    FanDuel ($11,000)

    It appears to be a stars and scrubs week with each of the Top 3 in salary in great spots but for cash games, I will be taking the savings and rolling with Rickie Fowler. He started the season out red hot with finishes of T4, T16, and T5 before struggling once again at the Farmers Insurance Open but that hasn't stopped him here at Phoenix. After missing the cut in each of the last three Farmers Insurance Open's he turned around the next week with finishes of T11, T4, and 2nd here at the WMPO. He is 14th in my stats model and looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National Golf Club), he is Top 25 in all Strokes Gained metrics except Around the Green(43rd), Top 25 in Par 4 Scoring, and 27th in DraftKings scoring. At 8th and 7th in pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel, Rickie is a great play in all formats.

    Jon Rahm
    World Golf Ranking (#6)
    Vegas Odds (6/1)
    Draftkings ($11,500)
    FanDuel ($12,500)

    It was a struggle coming up with just one more name in this top tier as the love Matsuyama and Kuchar in all formats but decided to go with Rahm for a couple reasons. First of all, he checks all the boxes on my sheet(6th or better in all four categories) starting with some excellent form as he is coming off three straight Top 10's to start the 2019 campaign. Then comes the stats model where he ranks 5th in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 5 BoB% and 7th in overall BoB%. This is also a bit of a home game for Rahm who attended Arizona State University and he has always done well here with a T11, T16, and T5 in his three trips. With the heavy chalk falling on Matsuyama and his history+form+discount, I love Rahm as a GPP pivot this week.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Austin Cook
    World Golf Ranking (#124)
    Vegas Odds (80/1)
    Draftkings ($7,900)
    FanDuel ($9,700)

    Like I did in the top tier, I will start with a player who offers value at a discounted price. Cook had an up and down fall season with a T41 at the CJ Cup and missed cut at the Shriners but bookended that with a T13 at the CIMB Classic and T11 at the RSM Classic. We already know he is a consistent option week in and week out as he is coming off a rookie season where he made 24 cuts in 29 events(83%) with a win and three Top 10 finishes. What jumps out this season from an upside standpoint is that despite those two bad weeks, he ranks 11th in SG: Approach after ending up in the negatives(-.045 or 127th) and outside the Top 125 in that stat a year ago. He finished T31 here last year in his first trip to TPC Scottsdale and this time around, I feel that is his floor and the sky is the limit. At these prices, I will have exposure to Cook in all formats.

    Talor Gooch
    World Golf Ranking (#153)
    Vegas Odds (100/1)
    Draftkings ($7,500)
    FanDuel ($8,700)

    In no way do I trust what Gooch is doing right now but I do love the upside for the price. Unlike Cook, Gooch was not consistent in his rookie season a year ago missing 11 of his final 14 cuts, making just 14 in 27 events all season with no Top 10's. He flipped a switch to start the 2018-19 season where he started with a T14 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and while he missed two straight cuts at the RSM Classic and Sony Open, he bounced back in the biggest of ways with back to back Top 5's at the Desert Classic and Farmers Insurance Open. The biggest difference has been the approach shots as he has gained three or more strokes to the field in that category in five straight and seven of his last eight events(that track it) overall. I won't have exposure in cash games, but at his price on both sites, he makes an excellent GPP play with big upside.

    Value Targets

    Joel Dahmen
    World Golf Ranking (#165)
    Vegas Odds (160/1)
    Draftkings ($6,800)
    FanDuel ($9,000)

    This play is more for DraftKings where Dahmen is 72nd in pricing(47th on FanDuel) in the sub $7K range this week. Despite the low price tag, Dahmen has been very consistent so far this season making all eight cuts and coming off a season-high T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. While he wasn't quite this consistent last year(made 19 of 28 cuts) he did finish Top 25 in 11 of those made cuts with three Top 10 finishes. Statistically, he doesn't jump off the page but lands inside the Top 50 in all my key stats highlighted by a 15th rank in Par 5 BoB% and 22nd in Bogey Avoidance. All things considered, I will be using him in all formats on DraftKings and for GPP formats on FanDuel.

    Lucas Glover
    World Golf Ranking (#127)
    Vegas Odds (110/1)
    Draftkings ($7,200)
    FanDuel ($9,700)

    Stars and scrubs in cash games is much easier to stomach this week, at least on DraftKings, with values like Dahmen and Glover. For Glover, he has been tremendous to start the 2018-19 season not only making all five cuts but finishing inside the Top 20 in each event while also shooting in the 60's in eight straight rounds and in 15 of 20 on the season. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National Golf Club), Glover is 32nd or better in every Strokes Gained category except putting. He now returns to TPC Scottsdale where he has made the cut in three straight trips(T43, T36, T53). With his price, I will be using Glover in all formats on DraftKings this week.


    Tournament Update Thread

    **Weather Update**

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

    image sources

    • Rickie Fowler: (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

    1 Visitor Comment

    1. I’m not sure Hideki will be as chalky as you think. I do think Rickie will be though.

    Post a Reply




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