Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday 1/30/19
After a night in which the Lakers' starters played almost no minutes, the Wizards signaled they are in the tank and the should-be tanking Pelicans somehow beat the Rockets on the road let's hope things settle down on Wednesday. Let's break down the FanDuel and DraftKings picks for an eight-game slate.
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De'Aaron Fox FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.65 DK - 38.31
Fox, and the Kings, in general, have had an up and down season which at times has hit some serious peaks while also trending towards incredibly frustrating valleys. Minutes gets jacked around and their coaching leaves a lot to be desired. But on Wednesday they draw the best DFS matchup around against the Hawks who run the league’s fastest pace and play a bottom third defense. They allow about 7% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards and Fox should be looking at mid-teens shot attempts at least. He has upside if the shot is falling and the assist numbers can pile on in a high volume game.
Terry Rozier FD - $6500 DK - $6100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.81 DK - 32.2
Kyrie Irving has been ruled out for Wednesday and Rozier will draw another start in his place for the Celtics. The latter played 35 minutes last game against the Nets with Irving on the bench and scored 14 points while handing out seven assists and pulling down seven boards. The usage was there with 15 shots, but he ran bad from three (2-8). The price took a game-over-game climb because his ownership was, of course, through the roof last time around. I actually think he’s still a good play on both sites, but is a slightly better DraftKings pick because of the $400 savings.
If Elfrid Payton sits again on Wednesday, Frank Jackson looks like a very good FanDuel and DraftKings play again. He drew the start on Tuesday against the Rockets and played well. Keep an ear out for this news.
Additionally, Jerryd Bayless could make another good play if Derrick Rose is ruled out again. Jeff Teague is already out for the Timberwolves.
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Buddy Hield FD - $6500 DK - $7200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.99 DK - 38.12
Much of the same logic in the De'Aaron Fox play applies here as well for Buddy Hield. What the latter has in his favor as well is that he’s one of the few Kings whose minutes are actually *reliable*. He’s played 35 or more in four of the last five games (when plenty of his teammates have been buzzed off their run) and is averaging 21 points, six rebounds and three assists in that timeframe. With the lack of many big money payoffs on this slate, it could make sense taking a more middling approach with guys like Hield and Fox considering the matchup.
Justin Holiday FD - $4600 DK - $4300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.43 DK - 28.39
Few other players in the game are playing as many minutes as Justin Holiday right now. He’s 38 or more in four of his last five games and let me tell you, dude needs every single one of them to remain fantasy relevant. But that’s built into his price considering he’s still coming cheap on both sites. He’s averaging 19.75 FanDuel points per game in that stretch, though he’s also running bad from three, shooting 30% from beyond the arc. For a guy taking almost 5.5 threes per game, this extra three pointer does matter for his fantasy viability. I like that he draws the Timberwolves here too. He’s more cash play than anything else because I don’t think he has tremendous upside, but the position is rather weak on Wednesday.
Will Barton FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 37.16 DK - 38.85
Gary Harris FD - $5200 DK - $5500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.97 DK - 29.24
Jamal Murray has already been ruled out for this game, meaning Barton will once again move into the starting point guard role for the Nuggets. He played 36 minutes in a close one against the Grizzlies, a comeback win for Denver and finished with 20 points and five rebounds. While technically the point guard, the offense runs so much through Jokic that you can’t expect big assist numbers out of Barton, but you can expect better shooting going forward. He’s a 38% three-point shooter over the last three seasons but has struggled some from beyond the arc in the short term. He’ll also draw a Pelicans’ team that’s completely compromised right now because of the Anthony Davis debacle and a bunch of injuries.
Meanwhile, I think we will continue to see the minutes tick up for Gary Harris who is still working his way back from injury. 31 against the Grizzlies was his most since returning and that number could climb to 33-34 in this game. He’s also really struggling from the field over the short term, only hitting three of his last 18 threes. That’s kept the price low and I like him in this matchup.
Justise Winslow FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.03 DK - 33.54
I would like Winslow a lot more if Tyler Johnson (and even Dwyane Wade) were to sit for the Heat on Wednesday. Regardless, Winslow is in a good spot against the Bulls who have serious issues defending wings this season with Kris Dunn really the only competent defender in their starting unit. Winslow can, at times, find enough usage in the offense as evidenced by his 18 shots two games ago and will usually tack on enough periphery stats to keep the floor high. I expected a few more defensive stats, but those haven’t always been in the cards this year.
Domantas Sabonis FD - $6400 DK - $6300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.74 DK - 36.76
Sabonis has had some weirdness in his recent game logs between blowouts, foul trouble (and sometimes both) he’s been underwhelming for the last couple of weeks. But I do believe the plan in close games (where he’s not hacking away at his opponents) that the plan is to play him 26-28 minutes at least. If that’s the case then we are buying low on his fantasy production even working under the assumption that he’s coming off the bench. He’s easily a double-double candidate when given enough run and the Wizards A: seem like they are tank mode and B: have issues defending on the interior. At a weaker PF position, he makes for an interesting FanDuel pick.
Paul Millsap FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.46 DK - 29.82
Gulp. Look, power forward on FanDuel is something of an issue most days and not much is different about this Wednesday slate. The options are thin and Millsap is coming cheap enough to take the risk. And it’s for sure a risk. He played 29 minutes last game, sure. But the three before that were 17, 22 and 18. Two of the three were blowouts, but these are very disturbing minutes’ totals for a guy in his talent tier. It’s lead to his lowest prices since coming back from injury and I’m willing to run him against a Pelicans’ team that just got blitzed by Kenneth Faried on Tuesday.
Consider James Johnson on FanDuel because of how bad the position is on Wednesday.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11200 DK - $10900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 52.02 DK - 54.17
Jokic started very slow last game, but was able to bounce back some against Memphis and finished with a meager 24 points, three assists and five rebounds. It was, for sure, an off game for the young superstar. Expect things to bounce back this game against the Pelicans. They have very little in the way of interior defense (no Jahlil Okafor isn’t the answer) and Joker should feast in this matchup. He’s averaged 25 points, eight assists and 11 rebounds over the last month and has the triple-double upside that you simply don’t see out of modern day centers.
Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $6400 DK - $6200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.55 DK - 32.28
Cauley-Stein’s scoring is down in the short term and he’s seen the usage drop. He hasn’t taken double-digit shots in six consecutvie games despite the minutes mostly being there. And while the Hawks do place a fast pace with poor defense, opposing centers don’t murder them this season. That leaves us with an interesting decision on WCS. I think the price has fallen enough to really consider in cash games, especially if you think he plays around 31 minutes, but the short-term shot opportunity does have me a little concerned.