FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 2/23/18

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Point guard

Ben Simmons FD - $8800 DK - $10000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 44.83 DK - 45.54

With Joel Embiid out of the lineup, we want to get as many Sixers as possible into our fantasy lineup. Simmons is the start of our stack, as he should run the show. With Embiid off the floor, Simmons is posting a 25.2 percent usage rate. Embiid being out of the lineup opens up things for everyone, as that's 34 minutes, 19 shots and a 31 percent usage rate that needs to be made up somewhere. That's a lot of production to make up, as Simmons should carry the load in his absence. A recent slide has lowered Simmons' price to $8,800 on FanDuel, as that's one of the best values on the slate with his projected 45 fantasy points. The fact that he has at least 33 fantasy points in three straight games would indicate he's getting out of his slide, as this 230-point total and two-point spread indicates a barnburner where Simmons could play 40 minutes. I get that you can only play these Philly guys on the all-day slates, but they are such good options that it's a slate worth showing up to to play these guys alone.

Tyler Johnson FD - $4700 DK - $4100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.71 DK - 25.62

Johnson is easily one of the best values on the slate, as he's seeing a much bigger role since being traded to Phoenix. Over his last 10 games, Johnson is averaging 29 minutes a game and has started in nine of those outings. While he's averaging just 19 fantasy points per game in that span, he's still doing that despite shooting just 31 percent from the field. His last three games indicate that he's climbing out of it, as Johnson is averaging 24 DK points while playing 31 minutes a game. That's all you can ask for from a player in the $4,000-range, as he is one of few players who has 10X upside on this slate. Those sort of numbers should continue against a Hawks team who ranks last in points allowed and first in pace while allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler FD - $8600 DK - $9600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.64 DK - 41.62

Butler is obviously a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings but he should go off no matter what. Those aforementioned usage numbers from Embiid is why, as Butler is posting a 26.2 percent usage rate with Embiid off the floor. The fantasy production backs that up, with Butler averaging 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Embiid sidelined. That number would indicate that Butler could reach 52 DK points, which actually surpasses our already gaudy projection. It also doesn't hurt that Portland allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

Devin Booker FD - $8200 DK - $8300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 42.16 DK - 44.26

Booker is obviously the star of the show for the Suns, as he becomes particularly intriguing in a matchup like this. Not only does Atlanta rank first in pace, but they also allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. That should benefit a usage hound like Booker, as he's averaging 35 minutes and 19 shots a game while leading the team with a 31 percent usage rate. That sort of usage should be beneficial for a player in such a tasty matchup, as Booker is averaging 38 fantasy points across his last 13 games. Booker also collected 32 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists in his one meeting with the Hawks earlier this season.

Also considered: Tim Hardaway Jr. With Doncic currently listed as questionable, we could see another game where THJ is dramatically under-priced. He lost a lot of minutes after Denver exploded in the 3rd quarter, but that should be less of a problem against a Utah team that should be completely gassed after their double overtime loss last night.

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12300 DK - $11000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 66.4 DK - 67.4

Using Antetokounmpo is always a good idea, as he's become the second-best player in fantasy basketball. What's really amazing is Giannis' floor, as he's scored at least 49 fantasy points in all but six games this season. He's been even better recently, averaging 56 DK points per game across his last 20 outings. That floor should allow him to be successful against Minnesota, as they allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. His 42.5 fantasy points in his one game against the Timberwolves may worry some fantasy owners but he did that damage in just 23 minutes with Milwaukee winning in blowout fashion, 125-95. The blowout may be a risk here as well with Towns' uncertain status, but Giannis looks like a good play nonetheless.

Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $5200 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.67 DK - 36.87

Oubre is actually one of the best values according to our system, as he's projected to reach 7X value on FanDuel. That sort of upside is hard to overlook, as FanDuel is clearly slow to adjust to his expanded role. Not only did he start in the Suns most recent game, Oubre also matched his 41 minutes with 41 fantasy points. That extends a rather impressive stretch from Oubre, in which he averaged 34.2 fantasy points per game across his last 19 games. That shows why he has such a lofty projection here, as he should exploit a Hawks defense who allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

Also considered: Paul George, but man, it'll be tough to go that route given that he played 50 minutes last night. I also want to keep an eye on George's status in general here - if the Thunder do the sensible thing and give him a night off that would open up a ton of usage and minutes.

Power Forward

Dario Saric FD - $5400 DK - $4600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.1 DK - 30.55
Taj Gibson FD - $3900 DK - $3800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.83 DK - 27.33

Saric has started the last three games for Minnesota, as it's clear he's becoming a much bigger part of the offense. In that three game-span, Saric is averaging 30 fantasy points per game. That's right around what our projections predict, as he could see even more usage with Karl-Anthony Towns (concussion) potentially sidelined. It's the price that really adds to his value though, as he should be closer to $6,000 on both sites with his recent role increase. Utah is actually a tough matchup on the surface but that should make Saric a guarantee for 30 minutes of action. The reason for that is because the T'Wolves will need Saric's size, as Utah runs out numerous bigs that Minnesota simply can't match up with.

As for Gibson, he will be the highest owned player on the slate if Towns sits. He played 31 minutes and dropped 40.5 fantasy points against the Knicks as a starter last night, and would be a clear cash game inclusion here if he were to start again.

Ivan Rabb FD - $3800 DK - $5900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.93 DK - 22.02

Rabb is really only worth a shot on FanDuel, as DraftKings has been quick to adjust to his new role. While he did disappear for a few games, Friday night indicates he's back. With Jackson and Valanciunas missing, Rabb started and collected 36 fantasy points in 24 minutes of action. He's actually scored at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last nine games, which shows the sort of upside he presents. That's pretty much the per-minute player he's been throughout the year, as Rabb is averaging 1.1 DK points per minute this season. That becomes really valuable here, with Marc Gasol in Toronto and Jaren Jackson Jr. sidelined. Not to mention, Cleveland currently ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency. Valanciunas may be back for this game, but he'll be returning from an overseas flight and it's not clear that he'd play much even if he is available.

Center

Boban Marjanovic FD - $5000 DK - $4400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.84 DK - 33.26

This is the moment that fantasy owners have been waiting for all season long, as Boban has finally been released. The Embiid injury is what's opened things up for him, as Marjanovic collected 19 points and 12 rebounds across 27 minutes in his first start. The per-minute numbers are really hard to overlook, as Marjanovic is averaging 14.6 fantasy points in 11 minutes per game this season. That's an absurd rate, as he should play at least 25 minutes here. It's clear they want to use the stud center too, as Marjanovic is posting a 25.3 percent usage rate with Embiid off the floor. The price has risen on Boban, but that shouldn't bother you here if you are playing the all day slate.

Brook Lopez FD - $5300 DK - $4300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 30.28 DK - 29.58

Lopez is not the sort of guy who's going to win you a tournament but he's one of the best bets to reach 5X value. That's notably evident on DraftKings, as Lopez is a heck of a bargain at $4,300. To reach 5X value, Lopez would need just 21.5 DK points and that appears to be the floor for Lopez. In fact, Lopez has at least 22 fantasy points in 11-straight games while averaging 29.2 fantasy points per game in that span. That's all you can ask for from a player in this range, as his 5X floor is impossible to fade. This matchup against Minnesota is extremely tasty too, as he could see a Timberwolves team without Towns.

Keep an eye on the Myles Turner situation. Kyle O'Quinn started for him last night and was an excellent value, putting up 29.5 FanDuel points on just 20 minutes of action, and Sabonis was an excellent play at his price range as well. If Turner were to sit again, both of those guys would be excellent cash game options.

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