Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

02/27/2019
Joel Bartilotta

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 2/27/18

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Point guard

Kemba WalkerKemba Walker FD - $8800 DK - $8500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 45.9 DK - 47.44

Walker was in the $10,000-range not long ago and it's hard to understand why it has dropped so much. In fact, Walker is averaging 47 DK points across his last nine outings, as he's recaptured his early-season form. That's pretty much where our projections are at, as his usage alone makes him hard to overlook. Not only does Walker lead the team with a 30 percent usage rate, but Walker is also leading the team with 35 minutes and 20.3 shots per game. That sort of huge role should be beneficial against a Rockets defense who allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

Goran DragicGoran Dragic FD - $4100 DK - $4700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 21.4 DK - 22.37

It's weird to see Dragic's price below $5,000 on both sites but he continues to play limited minutes in his return from knee surgery. Dragic played 16 minutes in his first game back and played 23 minutes in his most recent outing. That means we should be looking at 25-30 minutes here, which is all you can ask for from someone of Dragic's ilk. In fact, Dragic averaged 28 fantasy points per game across his first 13 outings before injury while playing 30 minutes per game. If he can reach that 28-point total here, Dragic would be hitting 6-7X value. The uptick in pace can't be harmful either, with Golden State ranking 10th in total pace.

There are a ton of injuries to focus on at point guard on this slate. Eric Bledsoe becomes one of the best plays if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits out, as he posts a 27 percent usage rate when he's off the floor. (Update: Giannis is probable to play now).

Tyus Jones is also worth considering if Teague misses out for the T'Wolves.

Don't forget about Patty Mills either, as he could play big minutes if Rudy Gay and Derrick White are out. Ryan Arcidiacono is also worth considering if Kris Dunn ends up sitting.

Shooting Guard

Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins FD - $6700 DK - $6200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 36.71 DK - 36.71

Wiggins is not necessarily my favorite recommendation but he has a ton of upside at this sort of price. What really makes him intriguing is his matchup, as he faces an Atlanta defense who ranks dead-last in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the league. That sort of matchup is a beautiful sight for Wiggins, as he's one of the best athletes in the NBA. Not to mention, the Hawks allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Wiggins recent form backs up this matchup, as he's averaging 35.2 fantasy points per game across his last 12 fixtures. Any player averaging 36 minutes and 19 shots a game is worth a shot at this sort of price tag, especially in a matchup like this.

Caris LevertCaris Levert FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.08 DK - 31.57

LeVert has been slow in his recovery from a serious ankle injury but he appears to be finding his early-season form. In fact, LeVert has at least 30 fantasy points in three of his six games since returning. The fact that he's played at least 27 minutes in three of his last four games is what's most encouraging though, as he's getting extremely close to that full workload. This is a guy who averaged 35 DK points in his first 12 games of the season, as he did that damage in fewer than 32 minutes per game. The matchup makes me believe he can continue to find his game, as he faces a Wizards defense who ranks 29th in points allowed, 27th in defensive efficiency and eighth in total pace.

If Antetokounmpo sits out, Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon become two of the best plays on the board. In fact, Middleton leads the team with a 33 percent usage rate with Antetokounmpo off the floor while Brogdon posts a 27 percent usage rate in these circumstances.

 

Small Forward

LeBron JamesLeBron James FD - $12000 DK - $11100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 59.66 DK - 61.29

James is in full takeover mode right now, as he knows every game from here on out is a playoff outing. Since returning from injury, James is averaging 24.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 10.5 assists and 2.0 steals per game. That's a 56-point average, as he's playing at a Russell Westbrook/James Harden-like level. The matchup might be the best part about this play though, as he faces a Pelicans defense who sits 27th in total defense while ranking sixth in pace. That's evident by the fact that James has scored at least 65 fantasy points in both his fixtures against New Orleans this season.

Nicolas BatumNicolas Batum FD - $5300 DK - $4700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.26 DK - 27.75

Batum's early-season struggles have kept his price in the $5,000-range, as he should be closer to $6,000 with his recent form. Since December 26, Batum is averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game. His floor has been incredible too, as he's scored at least 17 fantasy points in all 28 of those outings. That sort of consistency is hard to find from a player in the $5,000-range, as his 27 projected fantasy points should give us 6X value. Houston is not a matchup to fear either, as they rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays (and you think he plays max-ish minutes) then he actually enters the discussion for cash games.

 

Power Forward

Thaddeus YoungThaddeus Young FD - $6200 DK - $5900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.3 DK - 32.35

With Domantas Sabonis expected to miss this game, Young should continue his recent stellar form. What's truly incredible about Young is his floor, as he's scored at least 20 DK points in 37-straight outings. That floor is amazing in itself but Young is also providing 33 fantasy points per game in that span. With Sabonis off the floor this season, Young is posting a 21 percent usage rate while averaging a fantasy point-per-minute. That comes from a guy who's playing 34 minutes a game across his last six fixtures, as he could play even more without Sabonis.

Bobby PortisBobby Portis FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.75 DK - 35.75

Portis actually got a start at center in the most recent game but was limited due to foul trouble. He still did provide 15 DK points in 17 minutes, as he's easily one of the best per-minute producers in the league. Prior to that game, Portis averaged 31 DK points across his previous 14 outings. That's close to our projections, as he should have no problem abusing this tasty matchup. Not only does Washington rank 29th in total defense, but they also allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Ersan Ilyasova could start and play close to 25 minutes if Giannis sits out, which makes him extremely valuable at his price tag.

 

Center

Clint CapelaClint Capela FD - $7700 DK - $7300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.5 DK - 41.92

While Capela has been struggling a bit since his return from injury, that has lowered his price to these attractive numbers. In fact, Capela was approaching $9,000 on both sites, as he was averaging 41 fantasy points per game prior to his injury. That sort of production is hard to overlook considering that Capela played 34 minutes in the most recent game. That means his early-season form will be obtained before you know it, as we need to capitalize on this price before it inevitably rises. Charlotte is a fantastic matchup too, as they allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Myles TurnerMyles Turner FD - $7300 DK - $6300
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 38 DK - 35.81

With Sabonis expected to miss this game, Turner could play even more than usual. That's particularly enticing from a player who averages just 28 minutes a game, as he's one of the best per-minute producers in the league. Across his last 14 games, Turner is averaging 36 DK points per outing. Facing the Mavericks is a treat for any center at this point too, as they simply have no traditional centers on the roster since trading DeAndre Jordan. It's the price that makes Turner an elite play though, as he's projected to reach 6X value on DraftKings with his cheap $6,300 price tag.

DeWayne Dedmon is worth a shot too, as he's one of the best bets to reach 5X value on this slate with his recent form and spectacular matchup.

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