FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/1/18

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Point guard

Kemba Walker FD - $9300 DK - $8200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.47 DK - 47.95
We'll kick it off with an easy one. We were part of the 9% of people that played Kemba in cash games against Houston, and he promptly dropped 54.8 FanDuel points on 34 points from the field and 5 steals. Kemba is playing truly absurd minutes at the moment, with Charlotte clearly taking this playoff race with Orlando seriously. He's shot more than 20 times in 10 straight games, and yet his salary looks more like a 17-18 shot player. Brooklyn, meanwhile, is just a terrific match-up. They've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards on account of their terrible defensive back court. I love Kemba as a pay-up option in any format tonight.

Kris Dunn FD - $6000 DK - $5500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.74 DK - 31.5
Tyler Johnson FD - $5700 DK - $5000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.77 DK - 27.76
Two similarly priced options in somewhat similar situations by my estimation. Both have a lot of upside, and neither is without risk. Johnson is playing a 33 minute rotation in close games, and has paid 5x points per dollar in three straight games, including a 50 fantasy point monster against the Hawks. New Orleans is just a hair worse than Brooklyn in terms of match-ups, and the lack of Anthony Davis' full run has Vegas projecting this as a 4.5 point game.

And then there's Dunn. He's had the questionable tag far too often to call him safe, but when he does play he tends to be out there for 30 minute rotations. Chicago is seemingly always at risk to get blown out, but they've struck gold in this match-up with the Hawks. While TJ and Kemba have great match-ups, Dunn has the very best match-ups for opposing point guards in the league. And like Johnson, Dunn is playing against a terrible enough team that his own lousy Bulls are just two point underdogs.

I have to say, I love both of these plays, and don't envy having to leave one of the three guys above off my cash game lineups tonight.

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine FD - $8300 DK - $7700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 41.38 DK - 42.57
LaVine is a natural follow-up for my Dunn-love tonight. Yes, LaVine is now $8,300, but he sure is playing like an $8,300 player. It's obvious now that the inflated assist numbers were only on account of Dunn's absence, but even with his season average of 4.5 assists per game LaVine is still a reasonable bet for 40 fantasy points on any given night thanks to his usage. LaVine is honestly probably a little bit overpriced with Dunn back going forward, but a league best match-up with the Hawks is enough for me to want to float him here.

Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $6400 DK - $5400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.59 DK - 32.21
Perhaps one of the surprise beneficiaries of Bagley's unfortunate injury was Bogdan, son of Bogdan. The Kings left their feisty Serbian on the court for a staggering 43 minutes against the Bucks, and it's clear that they feel like they need his offense to replace some of what Bagley was bringing off the bench. I doubt that the plan going forward will be to play him for that many minutes, but adding even 5 minutes to his previous 30 minute rotation would make him an easy cash game play. Throw in a solid match-up with a sloppy Clippers defense and I think he brings you plenty of floor in a game with the highest total on the slate.

Also considered: There are a few other cheap options, but they feel risky for their own reason. Caris Levert is getting cheaper, but it sure looks like it could be "cheaper for a reason" with both his minutes and opportunity suffering recently. Danny Green should be a fairly high floor option, and represents a decent way to get away from a bad position cheaply.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $12400 DK - $11400
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 62.31 DK - 65.29
We were in the position to decide between LeBron and Giannis on Wednesday, and we leaned into LeBron on account of Giannis' unknown injury status. We'll do the same here. Giannis missing minutes helps LeBron coming and going. It helps the Lakers stay in the game, it helps LeBron play against weaker defenders, and means Giannis himself is a worse play. LeBron himself is in full on force of nature mode right now. With their backs against the wall after their trade deadline debacle, LeBron has played 37+ minutes in four straight games and averaged more than 20+ shots in that stretch as well. Milwaukee has had the league's best defensive efficiency this season, but they also play the league's 5th fastest PACE, and the extra possessions should make LeBron's floor acceptably high here. If Giannis gets a clean bill of health and we hear that he has no minutes limit, though, I'd give him the nod.

Harrison Barnes FD - $5600 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.48 DK - 31.82

Barnes sees a significant bump in our system on account of Bagley's upcoming absence. Bagley is an interesting guy to go missing, because we tend to be a little bit conservative when re-apportioning back-up minutes. Still, Bagley is such a huge part of this Sacramento team that his absence can't be ignored. Barnes played 41 minutes after Bagley went down against Milwaukee, and put together a more than solid 15 points and 14 rebounds. He just looks like a nice solid high floor option and should be favorably positioned against Gallinari here.

Also considered: Corey Brewer and Harry Giles. I want to get a little bit of news before I commit on one or the other of these guys, but both should be considered to be firmly in play on FanDuel where you can drop your lowest score.

Power Forward

Julius Randle FD - $8800 DK - $8000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.56 DK - 50.11
I'm ashamed to admit that I chickened out of playing Randle against the Lakers, but I'm not likely to make the same mistake against the Suns here. With Davis in his completely bizarre role, Randle has filled in beautifully. He's averaged 51 FanDuel points on 37 minutes in his last two games, and gets a phenomenal match-up with the hapless Suns here. Phoenix has played the 2nd worst defensive efficiency this season, and when you pair that with a league average pace you get a tremendous DFS match-up. This play becomes even better if Davis doesn't play at all, but even if he does Randle just looks like a player coming into his own right now.

John Collins FD - $7700 DK - $7000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.17 DK - 42
Have I mentioned how much I like it when these terrible teams play one another? Collins, like a lot of good players on bad teams, is quite simply underpriced relative to his average production when he plays his full rotation. He plays 34 minute rotations when things are not going horrendously, and the Hawks' status as two point favorites means we should see at least that from him here tonight. Chicago has been a top eight match-up for opposing power forwards this season, and you could easily argue that their current front court line is worse defensively than they've run when Markkanen was hurt. Collins has paid 5x points per dollar on these prices in three straight games, and I expect that he'll make it a fourth tonight.

Also considered: The Boston boys - Jayson Tatum and Marcus Morris. Both have huge upside here tonight, but the Celtics are justifiably the biggest favorites on the slate by far. Still, if you don't think they lose minutes to the blowout you could be looking at two of the best power forward options on the slate.

Center

Robin Lopez FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.93 DK - 29.05
We've recommended a lot of fairly expensive options so far, so we might be looking at a night where we're paying down at center. If that's where you find yourself, you could do a heck of a lot worse than Robin Lopez. RoLo has played 34 and 40(!) minutes in his last two games, and paid plenty of value in the meantime. The risk with Lopez is that he can disappear from the offense, but the 6 blocks he's given you in the past two games likely will make up for any offensive deficiencies. Any time you can get someone with a natural 35+ minute rotation for less than $5,000 you have to pay attention, and that's what we're probably looking at for cash games tonight.

Dewayne Dedmon FD - $5600 DK - $5500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.17 DK - 30.73
After RoLo, you actually have a ton of guys you can pick from tonight, especially for big tournaments. Dewayne Dedmon fouled out in 18 minutes against Towns and the Timberwolves, but he still paid value on his paltry $5,600 price tag in that game. The Bulls have also been the 2nd best match-up in the league, so you can do the math there. Dedmon will always be a foul trouble risk, but one has to think that going up against Robin Lopez will make that as unlikely as it can be for a foul box like Dewayne. I might just wind up trusting him in cash games, but for big tournaments Dedmon is a great option.

Other playables at center: Al Horford and Willie Cauley-Stein.

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