Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/10/2019
Doug Norrie

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 3/11/19

Sunday brought us all kind of NBA nonsense with the Suns beating the Warriors (on the road!), the Pelicans and Timberwolves screwing around with injury reports and James Harden getting into foul trouble of all things. Here's to hoping Monday brings with it the start of the week and some normalcy in the association.

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Point Guard

De'Aaron FoxDe'Aaron Fox FD - $8000 DK - $7300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 38.41 DK - 38.75
It’s not looking great for the Kings, but technically they still have something of a fighting chance of the playoffs even if those chances are just 4% right now. We’ve still seen a willingness to run their core starters major minutes in the short term and Fox is coming off one of his best games of the season on Saturday. He torched the Knicks for 30 points on 11-17 shooting from the field. While we can’t expect that kind of shot volume, we can pencil him in for 36-37 minutes against a Wizards team that’s allowed an average of 123 points per game over its last four (one was an OT game). As long as the Kings are in the playoff hunt, they make for strong DFS plays and this isn’t the last Sacramento guy you’ll see in this writeup.

Tomas SatoranskyTomas Satoransky FD - $6300 DK - $5800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.43 DK - 29.52
Satoransky has played major minutes for the Wiz over the last week, running 37 or more minutes in four of their last five games. He’s been able to contribute a steady fantasy line with 13 points, eight assists and six rebounds in that stretch. It won’t overwhelm you, but his ability to contribute across the fantasy line does keep the floor on the higher side even though his price has come up in the short term. And though he isn’t a volume shooter, there has been some run bad from three, hitting only 21% from beyond the arc (he’s 41% on the season. In the game with easily the highest total (241) having exposure to a big minutes guy in Satoransky makes a lot of sense.

With Ricky Rubio out, Dante Exum (FD $3600 DK $3200) could make for an interesting punt if A: he was in the starting lineup AND B: didn’t have a minutes restriction. Here’s to hoping we get news on both prior to lineup lock. He’s missed extended time so it’s rather unlikely they throw him in at full run, but let’s wait on some news for that.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $12400 DK - $11400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 64.45 DK - 66.86
Well, the bad news is that Harden really struggled on Sunday, getting his fifth foul midway through the 3rd quarter and getting epically buzzed off his minutes. The good news is we need to worry a little less about his run on the back-to-back seeing as how he wasn’t really taxed on the front end. With Chris Paul back in the mix we’ve definitely seen a reduction in Harden’s assist numbers tallying only 5.5 per game over the last seven games. But he’s also averaged 28 shots per game (13 threes) and been able to add six boards and two steals per game as well. We aren’t going to get a return of the Harden run from earlier in the season, but he still has the volume scoring game in him for sure.

Bogdan BogdanovicBogdan Bogdanovic FD - $5900 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.29 DK - 32.17
Bogdan’s price has stagnated in the short term thanks to a combination of factors. Over his last four games, he’s shooting just 32% from the field (though 39% from three) and lost minutes against the Celtics because of foul trouble. I truly think the plan is to run him 35-ish minutes in close games and slight regression on his midrange game would bring him right back to value (or even exceed it). The Wizards are the 27th ranked defense this season and heading the wrong direction (they’ve dropped a few spots over the last couple of weeks). This is, for sure, a buy low opportunity on Bogdanovic. You can also consider Buddy Hield (FD $7400 DK $7400) right along with him, though you aren’t getting quite the bargain. That being said, Hield’s minutes and opportunity are much safer than Bog’s.

 

Small Forward

Joe HarrisJoe Harris FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 21.78 DK - 23.07
Though the Nets can often play matchups and odd rotations, it sure does seem like the plan is to play Harris in crunch time of close games. It’s just that Brooklyn’s been in its share of blowouts over the last couple of weeks. In the last two (close games) he’s run 34 and 32 minutes respectively. But his specialty, the three, hasn’t been falling. He’s only two for his last nine and 30% over the last five games (47% on the season). At a weaker small forward position (on FanDuel) I don’t mind taking the savings and just rostering Harris on the hope and expectation that he knocks down his three-point looks and sees a full run of minutes.

Jeff GreenJeff Green FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.6 DK - 26.26
Along those same lines, Green has seen fairly quality minutes for the Wizards with 29 or more in four of the last five games. The usage isn’t all that high (9 shots per game over the last six) but that’s built into the price. He matches up fairly well with a wing-heavy Kings’ team that’s playing at the third-fastest pace in the league this season. And with Washington the eighth-fastest pace we have one of the reasons this Vegas total is so high. Like Harris, with the small forward position looking thin, getting out of it cheap on FanDuel with two plays under $5K should probably be the way to go.

If Jayson Tatum were to miss the game on Monday, we’d almost definitely get more minutes out of Gordon Hayward (FD $4700 DK $4600). The latter is coming very cheap still and would also stand to see an uptick in usage without Tatum.

 

Power Forward

Blake GriffinBlake Griffin FD - $8300 DK - $8300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 45 DK - 47.25
I know we’ve been beating the Pistons’ frontcourt drum over the last few slates, but it’s made a lot of sense to stack these guys. And it will make sense again on Monday. Griffin’s recent minutes on the game log don’t appear all that great, but there’s plenty of context. He lost minutes in a blowout over the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Then on Friday, he was ejected against the Bulls. And on Saturday he went to the locker room with an injury and lost minutes. It’s kept the price on the lower side, and I think he’s once again a tremendous value against the Nets who allow more than average rebounding to opposing big men this season. We’ll likely be all over the Griffin/ Drummond stack in cash games once again.

Bobby PortisBobby Portis FD - $6500 DK - $5900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.5 DK - 32.56
Dude is starting at center for the Wizards, but has been an absolute foul machine in the role. He’s had 23 fouls in the last five games combined, somehow avoiding fouling out in any of them. It appears to be one of the things keeping him off the court for longer stretches. That might not be as big of an issue against the fast-paced Kings who have a lower usage center in Willie Cauley-Stein. If Portis can hover around 28-29 minutes then he could pay off these prices. In 27 minutes per game over the last six, Portis is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds. That’s pressing up against cash game value when you account for a smattering of other stats and would easily get there if the minutes can press toward 30.

Strongly consider Serge Ibaka (FD $6400 DK $5800) if he’s in the starting lineup again on Monday.

Center

Andre DrummondAndre Drummond FD - $10600 DK - $9100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.57 DK - 52.59
I wrote an approximation of this the other day, but it warrants repeating: since he returned from the concussion protocol back in late January, Drummond has been an absolute beast. In 34 minutes a game he’s averaging 21 points, 16 rebounds, two steals and 1.8 blocks per game. That’s good for right about 53 fantasy points per game in that stretch. And now he gets about the best matchup you can get in DFS: centers against the Nets. I hate to go just past performance to make the case for a dude, but Drummond is averaging 24 points and 22 rebounds in his two games against Brooklyn. So he has that going for him, which is nice. He’s a total lock as a DraftKings’ pick and is probably the big money spend up option on the slate for FanDuel as well.

Clint CapelaClint Capela FD - $8000 DK - $7000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 40.79 DK - 41.32
There are a lot of good center plays on this slate, but Capela is such a great DraftKings’ play that I think we see a situation in which we play both him and Drummond. Capela has been consistently underpriced on that site for what seems like the whole season. He’s been a double-double machine this season and since coming back from injury is averaging 13 points and 12 rebounds per game (in 34 minutes per). I suppose there’s some concern with the opportunity on the back-to-back considering he played 36 on Sunday against the Mavs. But the Rockets haven’t been shy about playing him major minutes in these situations.

Consider Willie Cauley-Stein (FD $5900 DK $5700)

 

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image sources

  • AP_190605106247951: apimages

2 Visitor Comments

  1. I saw Alex Len payed off. Nice!

  2. how dare you gloss over patrick McCaw. play of the night.

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