FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/20/18
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Now that we're down to the final weeks of the NBA season, it's as critical as ever to keep an eye on injuries. Lineup lock is always critical but it will be more imperative than ever in these sort of injury-filled slates. One thing to also track is the back-to-backs, with Houston, Milwaukee and Philly all playing the second half of a B2B set. That means we could be looking at some rest for clubs that have already reached the postseason and that too would open up a ton of value.
Lillard's price on DraftKings is absolutely absurd, as he should be the highest-owned player on this slate. The main reason for that is the fact that C.J. McCollum (knee) is out for at least a week. With McCollum off the floor, Lillard is posting a bonkers 39 percent usage rate while averaging 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. That's all you can ask for from a guy who should approach 40 minutes of action, as Lillard is averaging 50 fantasy points per game across 37 minutes of action across in last four fixtures. Dallas is a matchup we want to exploit too, with Dallas allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Harrison got a rare start on Monday and played 32 minutes. That's a huge role from a player approaching a minimum price, as he's averaging 19 DK points per game across his last five fixtures. That may sound like nothing special, but 19 fantasy points at this price are nearing 6X value. What makes him particularly intriguing here is the matchup though, with Washington ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, 29th in total defense and eighth in pace. Harrison is a nice lineup-filler but he'd become one of the best values on the board if Zach Lavine (thigh) ends up sitting out.
Beal is tough to fade right now, as he may be the best option in fantasy basketball with his current form. Despite scoring just 20 DK points on Monday against an elite Utah defense, Beal had at least 41 fantasy points in 24 straight outings before that game. He also averaged 50.4 DK points per game in that span and led the team in nearly every usage category. In fact, Beal averaged 21 shots and 39 minutes a game in that span while posting a usage rate north of 30 percent. That's a monstrous role from any player, especially one who faces a Chicago defense who ranks 25th in total defense. Beal has shown that he can abuse this tasty matchup too, averaging 51 DraftKings points per game in two outings against them this season.
David Nwaba FD - $3800 DK - $3400
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 20.5 DK - 20.09
Nwaba becomes one of the best plays on the board if Love sits out but he's a solid play at this price no matter what. In Monday's win against the Pistons, Nwaba played 40 minutes and collected 30 DraftKings points. That's unheard of production from a player south of $4,000, as it's clear Cleveland wants to ride him more, given the 40 minutes of playing time. His recent play is encouraging too, with Nwaba averaging 17 fantasy points per game across his last 19 outings. That's 5X value on its own, as he's one of the few players with 10X potential at this price.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9600 DK - $8400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 48.29 DK - 48.37
Leonard is always worth a play when he suits up and that should be the case here. What's fascinating about Leonard is the fact that his price remains affordable, as these sites continue to keep him below $10,000 because of the volatility of his playing status. That's why we need to take advantage when he suits up, as this $8,400 price tag on DraftKings is hard to overlook. Any player who is averaging 46 DK points per game for the season should be closer to five-figures, as he comes into this matchup scoring at least 37 fantasy points in nine straight outings. That's a 4X floor from a player with a 65-point ceiling and he should be used heavily opposing Paul George. Not to mention, Leonard is posting a 32 percent usage rate with Kyle Lowry off the floor while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute.
Josh Richardson FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.04 DK - 32.84
Richardson has been inconsistent recently but he's been too good to be priced this cheaply. In fact, Richardson has at least 25 fantasy points in 17 of his last 19 games while averaging 30 DK points per game in that span. What's really big for him is the fact that Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder are currently injured. That has left this team very thin at the small forward position, with Richardson playing at least 37 minutes in five-straight games. San Antonio is not a team we need to fade either, as they rank 20th in defensive efficiency this season.
Also Consider: Nikola Mirotic is a fantastic value in the $5,000-range on both sites and could see a huge increase in usage if Antetokounmpo is ruled out.
Jayson Tatum FD - $6700 DK - $6100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.42 DK - 32.32
Marcus Morris FD - $5600 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.38 DK - 31.63
We're going to go with a couple of Boston forwards here for our power forward slot, as both these guys have been much better with Gordon Hayward sidelined. In fact, both of these players have a usage rate north of 20 percent with Hayward off the floor, as they're both providing about a fantasy point-per-minute. Their recent form is encouraging too, with Morris averaging 30 DK points per game across his last six fixtures while Tatum is providing the exact same total across his last eight fixtures.
That's right around where their projections are at, as they should have success in this matchup. In fact, Philly allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. That's evident by the fact that Tatum is averaging 44 fantasy points per game in three outings against them this season while Morris is providing 34.2 DK points per game. Not to mention, Al Horford is dealing with a knee issue and that could open up even more minutes for Morris and Tatum.
Also Consider: Bobby Portis gets a revenge game against the Bulls here and could exploit a Chicago club that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency.
Marc Gasol FD - $6800 DK - $6200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 35.18 DK - 35.12
It's strange to see Gasol's price so low, as he should be used heavily against Steven Adams. What's really enticing about Gasol here is his recent form, as he has at least 32 DraftKings points in three-straight games. What makes that more impressive is the fact that he's doing that damage in just 28 minutes per game. That means he should provide good value no matter what his role looks like, as he should be closer to $7,000 on both sites. Kyle Lowry missing this game only adds to Gasol's intrigue. Not only does that boost Gasol's touches, but he's also one of the team leaders in assists with him off the floor.
Steven Adams FD - $6400 DK - $5600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 33.1 DK - 33.85
Adams remains a huge value on DraftKings. The season-long numbers are more indicative of a $6,500 player, with Adams averaging 33.1 DraftKings points per game for the year. That means he's already hitting 6X value at just $5,600 and that alone makes him hard to fade. The 35 minutes are a near guarantee too, as Adams should see big minutes opposing Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam. Adams comes into this matchup in good form as well, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games while averaging 31.6 DK points per game in that span.
Also Consider: Nikola Vucevic is hard to fade against a Pelicans defense who sits 28th in total defense.