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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/06/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/6/19

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Early Slate

Pitchers

Carlos CarrascoCarlos Carrasco FD 10,000 DK 10,600
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Pannone) Park - CLE
FD - 41.48 DK - 23.04

Despite a poor effort in his first game, Carrasco is probably the best option on this slate. What really makes him enticing is this matchup, with Toronto posting a .190 average and .599 OPS while ranking 10th in total strikeouts in the opening week. That should be no surprise when taking a look at this lineup, as their best players are Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez. All that should allow Carrasco to bounce back here, as he's simply one of the best pitchers in the game. Over the last five years, Carrasco is posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while recording a K-rate close to 30 percent.  

Trevor WilliamsTrevor Williams FD 8,100 DK 8,000
Opponent - CIN (Tanner Roark) Park - PIT
FD - 28.73 DK - 14

There are a lot of Trevor Williams haters out there but he's tough to fade in a spot like this. Not only did he throw six scoreless innings in his first start of the season en route to 27 DK points, he also gets the best matchup in baseball. It's an admittedly small sample size so far, but Cincinnati ranks dead-last in average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. What's funny is that Williams' first start came against these Reds but it was played at Great American Ballpark. Playing in Pittsburgh is much more pitcher-friendly too, as Williams posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at PNC Park last season. He also did well against the Reds last season too, picking up two wins in two starts while allowing just two runs in total across 12 innings. 

Team Cash Stacks

Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers

Park - DET
Opposing Pitcher - KC (Jorge Lopez)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.48

Potential Players to Stack

Jeimer CandelarioJeimer Candelario FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - KC (Jorge Lopez) Park - DET
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.22

Miguel CabreraMiguel Cabrera FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Jorge Lopez) Park - DET
FD - 10.91 DK - 8.28

Christin StewartChristin Stewart FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Jorge Lopez) Park - DET
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.36

While the Tigers are a tough team to trust, it's even more difficult to trust Jorge Lopez. That's evident by the fact that he's the cheapest pitcher on this slate. Lopez' career 5.22 ERA and 1.56 WHIP speaks for itself, as he actually had the worst performance of his career against the Tigers last season. In fact, Lopez allowed seven runs in one inning of action, giving up three dingers the one time through the order. The Tigers have the second highest implied total on this slate, and they are a heck of a lot cheaper than the key plays from the one team above them (the Phillies). That puts all of these guys in play, with Jeimer Candelario being a fantastic value on FanDuel with the platoon advantage in his favor. 

Cleveland IndiansCleveland Indians

Park - CLE
Opposing Pitcher - TOR (Thomas Pannone)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.31

Potential Players to Stack

Leonys MartinLeonys Martin FD 2800 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Pannone) Park - CLE
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.01

Jake BauersJake Bauers FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Pannone) Park - CLE
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.49

Carlos SantanaCarlos Santana FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Pannone) Park - CLE
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.59

The Indians have actually been one of the worst lineups in baseball thus far but they present a ton of value in this superior matchup. What's really interesting about Pannone is how much he struggles on the road. In fact, Pannone posted a 6.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP outside of Canada last season, as he actually had reverse splits in an admittedly small sample size. The southpaw allowed lefties to record a .795 OPS last season and that's why we're fine with stacking lefties here. Leonys Martin at $2,800 on FanDuel is probably the best value of the bunch, as he's expected to bat lead-off for the Indians. If Jose Ramirez ends up playing, he's probably the key to our stack.  

Additional Early Slate Value Plays

Yoan MoncadaYoan Moncada FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - CHW
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.77

Moncada is one of the hottest hitters in the league and he should continue that success in this matchup. The thing that slows down Moncada is his strikeout rate but that really shouldn't be an issue against a guy like Mike Leake, who owns a 6.1 K/9 rate for his career. Moncada has also cut his strikeout rate dramatically this season, going from a career 32% guy to just 13% this year. A lot of that comes from his more aggressive approach, which is a very good thing. A lot of times young hitters (think Lewis Brinson) are striking out because they lack discipline, but Moncada just needed to be a little less patient, and it's paying off in spades. So, if Moncada has a good chance of connecting with the ball, he should continue his ridiculous form. Over the opening week, Moncada is posting a .519 OBP and 1.394 OPS, averaging 16.5 DK points per game. 

Late Slate

Pitchers

Corbin BurnesCorbin Burnes FD 7300 DK 8900
Opponent - CHC (Cole Hamels) Park - MIL
FD - 31.31 DK - 16

There aren't many good pitching options in the late slate but it's hard to overlook just how good Burnes was in his first start of the year. While he did allow three home runs in that opener, Burnes recorded 12 strikeouts in just five innings of action. That's a fantasy owners dream and he did it against a pretty solid St. Louis Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals lineup is actually pretty comparable to the Cubs lineup and Burnes should keep those strikeout ways going against this righty-heavy lineup. Players like Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant all have K-rates above 20 percent traditionally and that just adds to Burnes' intrigue.

Kyle WrightKyle Wright FD 6100 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 30.8 DK - 15.51

With limited pitching options available, let's ride the pitcher in the best matchup possible. Facing the Marlins is always a treat for any opposing pitcher, as they have one of the worst lineups in baseball. That was crystal clear last season when they finished 29th in total runs and evident this year by their .690 team OPS. Facing Miami is just half of this battle though and Wright is the sort of talented young arm who can exploit this matchup. While he did struggle at Philly in his first game of the season, that's likely a matchup that will give a lot of pitchers poor numbers. In Triple-A last season, Wright posted an impressive 2.51 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while recording 8.8 K/9. Vegas tells us this is a good spot to use Wright too, as we have the Braves as a -170 favorite and the Marlins projected to score just 3.5 runs. 

Team Cash Stacks

New York YankeesNew York Yankees

Park - BAL
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (Dylan Bundy)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.58

Potential Players to Stack

Greg BirdGreg Bird FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.47

Gleyber TorresGleyber Torres FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.54

Aaron JudgeAaron Judge FD 4500 DK 5600
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 10.15 DK - 10.11

Stacking against Dylan Bundy is always a good choice, especially when it's a team like the Yankees. What makes Bundy so stackable here is his home run rate, with Bundy allowing nearly 1.7 HR/9 across the last three seasons. That's a nightmare statistic against a bopping lineup like this. That obviously makes Judge a great option, considering he was one of the league leaders in homers last season. Torres is a fantastic choice after swatting away two dingers on Thursday as well. Greg Bird might be the best value though, as he gets the platoon advantage and should be right in the heart of the order. Brett Gardner is a sneaky play too if he leads-off. 

Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers

Park - COL
Opposing Pitcher - COL (Jon Gray)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.42

Potential Players to Stack

Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 12.99 DK - 9.9

Joc PedersonJoc Pederson FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 13.46 DK - 10.08

Max MuncyMax Muncy FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 13.11 DK - 9.76

Cody BellingerCody Bellinger FD 5000 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.56

Stacking hitters in Coors Field is always profitable, especially when it's a lineup who leads the league in runs and home runs. That was evident on Friday, when the Dodgers collected 10 runs in their first game at Coors. They did that despite facing a southpaw, as they're even better against right-handers with all the lefties they possess. Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are all approaching OPS of 1.000 against right-handers and that's nearly impossible to fade in the best hitter's park in baseball. This is a pretty simple play but you're definitely going to have to pay up if you want to use the Dodgers. Thankfully we have the cheap pitching options available to us than can help support a few pricey plays.

Additional Late Slate Value Plays

Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 4800 DK 4600
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - HOU
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.54

Davis is probably my best bet to homer on this slate, as he's absolutely obliterated southpaws this season. In fact, Davis has three homers in just 14 at-bats against lefties, en route to a 1.373 OPS. That looks even better when you consider the fact that Miley is allowing an .823 OPS to right-handers over the last three years. 

Trey ManciniTrey Mancini FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - BAL
FD - 7.95 DK - 6.12

Mancini is not getting enough credit for how well he's playing, as this price is hard to understand. In seven games this season, Mancini is posting a 1.081 OPS while averaging 12.1 DK points per game. That's actually one of the best averages on the slate and he could continue that with the platoon advantage here. The price is what really makes him attractive though, as he's priced the same as guys like Brian Anderson, Marcus Semien and Kendrys Morales

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image sources

  • Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59): By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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