Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 - Main SlateWednesday's main slate gives us a little dash of Thor, some A's to stack, a ways to play a bunch of Phillies.
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PitchersNoah Syndergaard FD 9900 DK 10400
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - NYM
FD - 40.61 DK - 22.07
Thor’s peripherals have been very solid to start the season, though he’s run into the Mets’ bug that deGrom had last season. Namely, his team doesn’t want to score a bunch for him. Granted he gave up four earned runs in his first start, but he’s struck out 13 batters in 12 innings while only walking two. Now he enters Wednesday’s action as a massive -215 home favorite against the Twins and their non-imposing lineup. deGrom was a chalk start on Tuesday night and I expect Syndergaard to be the same on the main slate for Wednesday. The sub-$10K price on FanDuel makes him a rather easy call, and you aren’t breaking the bank on DraftKings either.
Nick Pivetta FD 8900 DK 8500
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - PHI
FD - 32.59 DK - 17.39 Ok the bad news first: Pivetta hasn’t made it past five innings in either of his first two starts this season. He allowed a ton of hits (17 total) to the Braves and Twins and got chased early in both games. So the early start returns haven’t been there. Now the good news: Pivetta has had somethings we can hang our hat on. He’s cut the walk rate, allowing only two free passes in 9.2 innings while getting BABIP’ed hard (.412). The 3.82 xFIP trails the 6.52 ERA by almost three runs. He’s always *underperformed* in that respect so we need to take it with a grain of salt. But I do think we are still buying low on the profile.
Also Consider: Robbie Ray (FD $8100 DK $9400)
against the Rangers. Dude can walk the ballpark, but has as much K upside as anyone in the game when he can lock in.
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Team Cash Stacks
Oakland AthleticsPark - BAL
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (Josh Rogers)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.12
The Orioles pitching staff is an epic disaster and they are (seemingly) having a new bum come up each night to get rocked by the opposing team. That could be Josh Rogers’ roll on Wednesday. His minor league stats don’t point to a guy who should be getting a major league look, but these are the O’s and here we are. He struck out less than seven batters per nine over 100 IP in AAA last season and really hasn’t shown swing and miss stuff at recent minor league stops. Dude could be in real trouble here. The A’s were popular plays against John Means’ spot start on Tuesday. It’s pointing that direction again.
Update: Dan Straily is now the scheduled starter for the Orioles. While not quite the platoon we wanted (he's a righty) it doesn't change much of what I write below because Straily stinks.
Potential Players to StackMarcus Semien (FD $3100 DK $4000)
Stephen Piscotty (FD $3400 DK $4000)
Khris Davis (FD $4000 DK $4900)
Mark Canha (FD $2500 DK $4200)
Chad Pinder (FD $2500 DK $3900)
Their pricing on FanDuel means we could be stacking four of these guys. Some of the middle/ top of the order guys are coming around $3K or below and that’s going to give us a decent amount of flexibility with lineups.
Semien projects to hit leadoff against the lefty and could be a popular play. While he had a down year in this platoon in 2018, dude is much better against lefties for his career. He has a 115 wRC+, .783 OPS and .325 wOBA in this split over 337 plate appearances in this split. While these aren’t world-beating numbers writ large, they play real well at shortstop where the offensive positional scarcity is a real thing.
Piscotty raked lefties last season to a .841 OPS and .357 wOBA. He had something of a breakout year last season with 27 home runs and low, 19% K rate. He’s also a bargain if hitting in the two-spot for Oakland on Wednesday.
Khris Davis was actually better against righties in the reverse platoon split last season, but that doesn’t preclude us from playing him against the lefty here. From an OPS and wOBA perspective, Davis is basically platoon neutral for his career and has as much power upside as anyone in the game. You’ll have to live with the variance because he doesn’t supplement the power with a ton of walks or other hits. But his upside makes for the thing GPP winners are made of.
You can also throw Pinder and Canha in there on the cheap depending on where they fall in the order. In all, the A’s are going to be a popular stack on this slate.
Philadelphia PhilliesPark - PHI
Opposing Pitcher - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5
They will cost a little more than the A’s, possibly making the Phillies slightly lower owned on this slate. But they are in almost as good a spot. Jeremy Hellickson is a low-K arm who has struck out less than seven batters per nine over his last 250+ innings. The BABIP stays on the lower end because he’s able to somewhat limit hard contact, but this is a slippery slope with pitchers. In the end, if you don’t strike batters out at a higher clip it can be rough sledding. Hellickson has an xFIP over 5.00 for the last 2+ seasons and will run into a Phillies’ team averaging more than six runs per game to start the season.
Potential Players to StackAndrew McCutchen (FD $3700 DK $4300)
Bryce Harper (FD $4700 DK $5200)
Jean Segura (FD $3700 DK $4000)
J.T. Realmuto (FD $3300 DK $4400)
Bryce Harper’s been worth every penny to start the season, smacking his fourth home run of the season on Tuesday and rocking a 1.300 OPS out of the gate. This is a dude who had an 18% walk rate against righties last season and .368 wOBA. The .288 BABIP drove down some of his rate stats, but he’s been primed for big numbers and could fulfill a huge season in Philly. I think we might be still buying a bit low on his overall production.
Hitting leadoff for this Philly offense is going to have Andrew McCutchen in a plus spot almost every night. He’s always been a patient hitter and is taking walks 20% of the time to start 2019. He was well above average against righties last season and has been for the better part of his career. It’s the worse side of his platoon, but he’s not a massive splits guy.
Realmuto is getting BABIP’d early (.200) but rates as one of the better catcher plays on a nightly basis because of his projected slot in the order (fifth) and baseline projected production. He’s a little pricey on DraftKings, but the catcher slot is a harder one to fill over there.
Other Bats to ConsiderChris Davis FD 500 DK 2000
Opponent - OAK (Frankie Montas) Park - BAL
FD - 8.28 DK - 6.19
We didn’t get a chance to roster his 0-46 at 25% the price of the FanDuel minimum on Tuesday, but FD is giving us another chance on Wednesday. Look, I know the dude’s been historically bad (like for real, all-time history on ineptitude), but there is a price bottom for everything/ one and Davis is there. If he’s in the lineup then you almost have to take the chance at this price.
Brian Dozier FD 2300 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.64 It’s not as bad as Davis, but FanDuel is still daring us to play Dozier at this price if he’s going to hit second in the lineup. Whenever we can get top-of-the-order guys at near the minimum (in anything else besides matchups agains the most elite of arms) then we almost need to take a shot just on the plate appearance expectation alone.
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