Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/28/19
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Sundays are exciting because we get a full slate but this time of year it's interesting in terms of weather. We have had postponements in back-to-back days and we'll need to keep an eye on the weather forecast again here. The games with rain in the forecast include Kansas City, Washington, Atlanta, New York and Philadelphia. The east coast has just been getting pounded by rain and we have yet another dicey schedule here. So, be sure to check forecasts before lineup lock.
Using pitchers against Miami is always a profitable endeavor, as they simply have the worst lineup in the majors. Not only do they rank dead-last in scoring, they also rank last in SLG and 27th in xwOBA. That's a recipe for disaster and it's really no surprise when you consider the fact that Starlin Castro is probably their best hitter. That's why Eflin enters this matchup as a -170 favorite, which alone makes Eflin worth a shot in this price range with his 23:5 K:BB-rate.
I have always personally loved Hill because of his goofy nature but he's a heck of a pitcher when healthy. Over the last three years, Hill owns a 3.09 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, while striking out 445 batters across 378 innings. That's an absurd strikeout rate in its own right and those numbers are hard to argue with considering Hill enters this matchup as a -190 favorite. That's no surprise considering this weak lineup, with Pittsburgh ranking 27th in wOBA and 29th in total runs. Normally Hill would be an easy call at these prices, but remember that it's his first start of the season, and that the Dodgers could be pretty cautious with him here. For that reason he might be more of a big tournament play.
Also Consider Chris Sale against Tampa Bay. The struggling lefty recorded 10 Ks in his most recent outing and may finally be bouncing back after a terrible start to the season.
Bour hasn't quite gotten off to the start that he'd hope for this season but he should have success against a weak righty like Homer Bailey. Over the last three years, Bailey is posting a 6.29 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. Those are obviously unsightly numbers and he's allowed an .897 OPS to lefties in that span. That's huge for a guy like Bour, who owns an. 839 OPS against righties throughout his career. You're also taking Bour primarily thanks to his spot in the order, where he's been batting third recently.
Cron is sneakily one of the best power hitters in the league and that pairs beautifully with the fact that he's facing a homer-prone pitcher. Over the last three years, Cron has an ISO approaching .224 and has hit 50 dingers in those 261 games. That's obviously elite power and it doesn't show in his price. Not only does Bundy have an ugly 1.79 HR/9 rate for his career, that number is actually north of 2.2 over the last two years.
It's a tough tell to play anyone against Carlos Carrasco but Altuve is absolutely rolling right now. Over his last 17 games, Altuve is posting a 1.053 OPS while collecting 12 runs, 18 RBI and eight homers. That's all you can ask for, especially when you consider the fact that Altuve has a slugging percentage approaching .700 at home this season. Carrasco is not necessarily in top form either, as his 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP are not pretty numbers. He's been giving up a lot of hard contact, and I'm not ready to say he's fully "back" just yet.
Albies has found himself atop the Braves batting order and that alone makes him a great bet to succeed in this price range. His recent form is what's really encouraging, with Albies collecting 14 runs over his last 12 games. That's really no surprise considering he's hitting lead-off for one of the best lineups in baseball and that's an encouraging sign against a struggling arm like Tyler Anderson. The Rockies lefty owns a 12.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP so far this season. Albies is traditionally better against southpaws too, posting a .337 AVG and .538 SLG against lefties throughout his career.
Lindor sat out on Saturday, so that makes him a near guarantee to enter the starting lineup here. In his first six games of the season, Lindor has collected five runs, three homers and six RBI, as he's clearly back to his MVP form. What really makes him intriguing here is the fact that he gets to hit from the right side, with Lindor posting a .388 OBP and .556 SLG against left-handers throughout his career. That's a very promising sign against Wade Miley, who has an 18 percent K-rate for his career while posting a FIP north of 4.00.
Stacking Braves isn't the worst idea, as Anderon's aforementioned numbers are simply hard to look at. Swanson makes for a nice, cheap part of that stack and he's truly in the midst of a breakout season. Not only does Swanson own an impressive .381 xwOBA, he also has an .858 OPS. That's undoubtedly the best numbers of his career and he's traditionally been better against lefties, let alone ones who have double-digit ERA's.
Machado has gotten off to a slow start but it could start getting better against a guy like Jeremy Hellickson. The Nationals righty has been lucky to obtain a 4.34 ERA, as his 1.61 WHIP and 10:10 K:BB ratio says he has some serious regression headed his way. In addition, Hellickson has posted a .349 xwOBA this season and Machado should be able to thrive off a guy who has some regression headed his way. Machado's career numbers are why we trust him, as he's always a good bet to post an OPS approaching .900.
Carpenter has been much better recently and he finally appears to be getting out of his early-season slump. Over his last 12 games, Carpenter has posted a .375 OBP and .810 OPS. That's still not quite what we expect from Carpenter but it's a step in the right direction. What we like here is the fact that Carpenter has the platoon advantage, as Carpenter owns a .385 OBP and .507 SLG against right-handers over the last three years.
Also Consider Justin Turner against Trevor Williams. While Turner has struggled so far this season, he'll inevitably get out of it and it could start against a guy like Williams, who has terrible peripherals.
Wil Myers FD - OF 3000 DK - 1B/OF 4300
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.18
Stacking Padres hasn't been too profitable this season but there's reason to believe it can be here. The Hellickson regression numbers are the major reason why, as we expect Myers to be a major part of that. Myers .355 wOBA and .511 SLG are actually some of the best numbers on San Diego and he should only get better from here on out. He looks to have regained the momentum he had a couple of years ago, and could be rounding into the star player many expected him to be. Not to mention, Myers has two homers and two doubles over his last eight games.
Kepler is batting atop of the Twins lineup and that has led to a breakout season. Two dingers on Saturday shows just how special Kepler has been, as his .370 xwOBA is an impressive mark. He comes into this matchup absolutely rolling too, with Kepler hitting three homers in his last two games. That is huge against like Bundy, who has allowed the most home runs in the league over the last two years. Kepler always performs better against righties too, posting an OPS just shy of .800 against them over the last three years.
Pollock has shown signs of brilliance throughout his career and he's simply too cheap for his potential. While he's gotten off to a slow start, this is a guy with 20-30 potential. Facing Trevor Williams is one of the major reasons we really like him though, as he too is due for some negative regression. In fact, Williams has not had an xFIP below 4.30 over the last four years, as he's been skating by with serious luck in his back pocket. Pollock being right in the heart of the order with all of these lefties puts him in a great spot for runs scored and RBI potential, as we anticipate Williams struggling against this potent lineup.
If Johan Camargo finds himself at the top of the lineup again, he's definitely worth considering at this cheap price.