Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/12/19
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The thing I love about Sundays is the fact that all of the games are played within a three-hour span, except the night game. That makes it much easier to forecasts the weather and fortunately for us, there's really not much rain on today's slate. With that said, the cities we do need to keep an eye on are New York, Baltimore and Kansas City.
It's strange to see a pitcher with a 5.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP priced so highly but there's reason to believe that those numbers will shrink drastically after this game. What's really impressive about Thor are his stellar peripherals, with Syndergaard posting a 3.42 xFIP this season while owning a 27 percent K rate. That's the pitcher that we've become accustomed to and a complete game shutout with 10 Ks two starts ago shows the sort of potential he has. The matchup is the reason we really like him here though, facing a Marlins team who ranks dead-last in wOBA, xwOBA and runs scored. That's why Thor enters this matchup as a -190 favorite with a total of 6.5.
Ryu has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and it's really not indicative in this price tag. In seven starts this season, Ryu has posted a 2.03 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while posting an absurd 45:2 K:BB rate in 44.1 innings. That's simply ludicrous control and it shows just how dominant the lefty has been. Facing Washington at home can be beneficial too, with the Nations posting the second-worst K rate in the majors. Vegas appears to love Ryu too, as he enters this matchup as a -170 favorite, with Washington projected for only three runs.
Blake Snell pops up highly in our projections, as he's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the majors facing a diminished Yankees lineup.
The slugging first baseman has gotten off to a bit of a slow start but collecting three hits in back-to-back games coming into this fixture is an extremely encouraging sign. He also has two runs scored and two RBI in that two-game spurt and this is a guy who can get scorching hot in a hurry. The simple fact is, Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in baseball and he's too good to be in the low $4,000s. Any hitter with a career .393 wOBA and .233 ISO is worth using in this price range, especially considering he has an OPS approaching 1.000 against left-handers and faces a weak one here.
Cron hit a three-run homer on Saturday and it's hard to understand why his price is so cheap. His .261 ISO this season shows the sort of power potential he possesses, as his 53 homers across his last 173 games is an impressive mark. That homer on Saturday night came against a southpaw and Cron gets to face another lefty here. Over the last two years, Cron has an OPS north of .950 against left-handed pitching and Daniel Norris 1.48 WHIP makes him a guy we want to exploit.
Altuve missed Saturday's game because of a hamstring issue but if he ends up returning to action here, we love him. What we really like is this price tag, as $3,800 on FanDuel makes him quite the bargain. It's Adrian Sampson that we really want to exploit, as his 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP matches his ugly .365 xwOBA. Altuve is having one of the best power seasons of his career too, posting a .229 ISO, which is actually a career-high. If Altuve ends up missing because of his hammy issue, Whit Merrifield could have success against Cole Irvin.
Editor's note: Altuve has been placed on the IL, and won't be playing in today's game.
Stacking Twins is a solid strategy on this slate, as they've simply developed into one of the best offenses in the majors. In fact, Minnesota ranks first in xwOBA and second in OPS, with much of that damage coming recently. Schoop has really been carrying the second half of the order and has been doing work. In fact, Schoop is 10-for-30 at the plate over the last six games while collecting two homers, two doubles, six runs scored and six RBI in that span. The second baseman has been absolutely ridiculous against left-handers this season too, posting a 1.283 OPS and .533 OBP in 15 plate appearances, despite the small sample size.
This feels like a play that's been on repeat for a week now but it's easy to understand why. Not only has Story been at home all weekend, this also marks the fourth left-hander in a row. That's a strange coincidence and it's huge for a guy like Story. Since the beginning of 2017, Story owns a 1.035 OPS against southpaws while posting a .943 OPS at home in that same span. The righty shortstop is hitting the crap out of the ball this season too, posting a .371 wOBA and .517 SLG.
Correa is the second piece to our Houston stack and it's hard to overlook his recent production. Over his last 18 games, Correa is batting .291 while posting a .950 OPS. That's the MVP candidate that we've come to love from past seasons and we have to like him here against a pitcher with a .365 xwOBA. One of the reasons we really like a Houston stack is because of their projections, as Vegas has the Astros projected for more than five runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3500
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - TOR
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.23
Guerrero really hasn't given us much reason to use him yet in his rookie season but a career-high two hits on Saturday is hopefully a sign of things to come. Quite simply, this is one of the greatest prospects ever and many experts have him pegged as a .300-hitter with 40-homer potential. His minor league numbers are downright historical and he'll inevitably get out of this slump. Facing Lucan Giolito is a good way to bust that streak, as his 5.43 career FIP is definitely nothing to write home about.
Ramirez is having a nightmare season after an MVP-caliber 2018 campaign and it's made his price nearly impossible to fade. This is a guy who was a $5,000 player on both sites last season and we're going to bet on him getting closer to that over the coming months. There are some modest signs of a breakout on the horizon, with Ramirez averaging 11.4 FanDuel points per game across his last 22 outings. That's all you can ask for from someone in this price range and he has the potential to be even better. Getting to hit from the left side should only help, as Ramirez has traditionally been better from that side of the plate.
Blackmon is always worth using at home, especially in this price range. The $4,200 price tag on FanDuel simply makes no sense, as he should be closer to $5,000. Homering on Saturday night shows what makes him so good, as he always rakes at Coors Field. In fact, Blackmon has a 1.118 OPS at home since the beginning of 2017 and enters this matchup on an absolute heater. Over his last 19 games, Blackmon has eight doubles, three triples, six homers, 21 runs and 16 RBI en route to an OPS north of 1.200.
Cruz is probably my favorite play on the board, as he's absolutely destroyed lefties throughout his career. In fact, Cruz has posted a .927 OPS against southpaws throughout his tenure while providing a wOBA right at .400 this season. He comes into this matchup rolling too, collecting seven doubles, six homers, 17 runs and 18 RBI over his last 23 games. Norris is not a guy we need to worry about either with his .340 wOBA and .350 xwOBA.
Nothing is stranger than having to scroll down to find Martinez. This guy is simply one of the best hitters in the game, as his .440 xwOBA and .635 xSLG are some of the best marks in the majors. That means he has some positive regression headed his way and we're going to bet on some of it happening here. Since the beginning of 2018, Martinez has posted a .925 OPS against southpaws and Marco Gonzales' 4.65 xFIP indicates that he might have trouble in a hitter's haven like Fenway Park.
Josh Reddick is one of the league leaders in batting average and pops up very highly in our projections against Sampson.
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- Paul Goldschmidt: AP Photo/Matt York