Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/28/19
Coming off a big Memorial Day week, we *start* the week on a Tuesday with a full slate of evening MLB action for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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The most important thing prior to grinding DFS is checking the weather. That happens to be a nightmare on this slate, as half the schedule has rain in the forecast. The home teams we need to keep an eye on are New York, Minnesota, Boston, Baltimore, Colorado and Philadelphia. The Rockies game is one you'll definitely have to monitor and you'll see why with our picks.
While this DraftKings price is a bit lofty, it's nearly impossible to fade Hill on FanDuel at $8,300. We're talking about a guy who owns a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season while posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP dating back to the beginning of 2015. That simply means he's one of the best arms in baseball, as he also has a K rate north of 30 percent in that four-year span. Getting to face the Mets should only help those gaudy numbers, with New York ranking 22nd in K rate and 18th in runs scored. That's why Hill enters this matchup as a -210 favorite with the Mets projected for only three runs.
Giolito is actually a guy who I have not been able to figure out since his call-up but it truly appears that he's in the midst of a breakout season. In fact, Giolito is posting a 1.25 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last six starts while striking out 41 batters across 36 innings of action. That's obviously absurd production and it's clear that he's really found his stride. Getting to face Kansas City shouldn't slow down those elite numbers, with the Royals ranked 19th in runs scored, 26th in xSLG and 20th in both OPS and xwOBA. Vegas understands all of these statistics, as they have Giolito as a -170 favorite in this matchup.
Aguilar has been sitting out a ton recently but he seems like a guarantee to start here. The two reasons we believe he'll enter the lienup is because the Brewers get a DH and they also get to face a lefty. That will probably put Aguilar right in the heart of the order and that's huge from such a talented bat, who is super cheap. While he hasn't got it going yet this season, this is a slugger who bopped 35 homers and 108 RBI last season. He was even better against lefties, posting an OPS over .900 between 2017 and 2018.
This is the first of many Rockies that you're going to see here, as Murphy is one of the only ones who's actually a good value. We're talking about a BABIP king who will likely hit close to .400 at Coors Field for the rest of the season. That alone puts him squarely in play, as Murphy should be right in the heart of the order against Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks righty is a guy we definitely want to exploit, with Kelly posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. That spells disaster in Coors Field, as Vegas has the Rockies projected for more than six runs here. Murphy typically hits better against righties too, posting an OPS north of .950 since the beginning of 2017.
If you're in need of a catcher, Tony Wolters is a great piece to a Rockies stack.
We're going to go super cheap here, as we expect Perez to enter the lineup against a lefty. If you're a regular to these articles, you know that we always like Perez in these circumstances. Since the beginning of 2017, Perez is posting an .801 OPS and .478 SLG against southpaws. That's not anything special but it's way too good for a player approaching a minimum price on both sites. The fact that we're looking at a 9.5-total only adds to his intrigue, as we expect both of these clubs to circle around the base paths many times.
This guy is probably not getting the credit he deserves, as he's been the Reds best hitter this season. In fact, Dietrich has career-highs with a .639 SLG and .996 OPS. Those numbers actually obliterate his previous career-highs and his 13 homers and 28 RBI are obviously well on their way to career-highs as well. We always want to use Dietrich against righties too, with Dietrich posting a 1.038 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season.
Let's keep the Rockies rolling with Trevor Story. The slugging shortstop sat out on Monday after striking out five times on Sunday but it's hard to argue with his previous form. Prior to that, Story had four homers, eight runs scored and seven RBI over his previous six games. That's really no surprise when you consider the fact that he's posting an OPS north of 1.000 for his career at home. That's why we love him here, as he should go nuts with the Rockies projected as the highest-scoring lineup on the slate.
This is simply a punt play because Crawford is way too cheap. What we like here is that makes it much easier to get Rockies into your build. $2,900 on DraftKings is essentially free and it opens the door for so much more. The fact that he has two homers over his last nine games is hopefully a sign of things to come too, as he's been struggling to keep his average above the Mendoza Line. While we do like Richards against the Giants, his 4.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP means he's a guy we don't necessarily need to fade.
After picking up five hits on Sunday, it seems clear that Turner is back to his old self. That game rose his season average above .300. with Turner hitting .600 over his last four games. The power appears to be coming around too, with Turner collecting three doubles, six homers, 14 RBI and 16 runs scored over his last 20 games. The icing on the cake here is that he gets the platoon advantage against Steven Matz, with Turner posting a 1.040 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of 2017.
Seager just returned from the IL on Sunday and it's clearly why his price remains so low. This guy is simply too good to be in the $3,000-range and it's a wonder why these sites are keeping his tag so cheap. We're talking about a guy who has an OPS approaching .800 since his second season in the league, as he's typically a player who will provide 30 doubles and 25 homers. What we like here is that he gets to face Adrian Sampson, who's posting a 5.38 xFIP and 1.46 WHIP so far this season. That also gives Seager the platoon advantage, which only adds to his intrigue.
Davis Freeses typically bats in the heart of the order against southpaws and is definitely worth considering at his price tag.
Let's finish up our Colorado stack with a couple of lefty outfielders. With Charlie Blackmon now on the IL both of these guys should be at the top of this order. In fact, Tapia has been hitting leadoff off in his absence while Dahl has been batting third. That obviously makes both of them great plays with Colorado projected for six runs but they're also fantastic values as well. When's the last time you've seen the Rockies leadoff guy and three-hole hitters at a reasonable price? That makes it so much easier to get a full-on stack and these two would be the heart of it.
We also like the fact that they both get the platoon advantage in their favor, with both these guys posting better numbers against righties. In addition, Dahl enters this matchup in the midst of a six-game hitting streak while Tapia is hitting .300 over his last 14 games.
While Winker's average is nothing to write home about, he's developed into a sneaky power hitter. In two of his last three years, Winker has posted an ISO north of .220. That's an unheard-of stat from someone so cheap, as his .357 career wOBA backs up that he's a better hitter than this price would indicate, We also like that he gets the platoon advantage against Jordan Lyles, with Winker posting an .899 OPS and .567 SLG against right-handed pitching in that span.