Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/17/2019
Doug Norrie

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 6/17/19

Monday's baseball slate brings us some interesting pitching options seemingly without a true ace on the slate. There are also some offenses in good spots with plenty of bad arms taking the bump.

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Pitchers

Kenta MaedaKenta Maeda FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9000
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - LAD
FD - 36.94 DK - 19.68
Maeda comes in as the best money line favorite of the day on Monday at -245 against the lowly Giants. Dude is striking out more than a batter an inning for the season and faces a San Fran team ranked 27th in the league in wOBA against righties. They strike out 23.5% of the time in that split and have almost no punch at any point in the lineup. The only issue with Maeda in cash games is the Dodgers are still very conservative with his pitch counts. He went 97 pitches through 4.3 innings last game, but before that hadn’t topped 90 since back in the middle of April. So while his win odds are the best of the day, and the matchup is almost as good as one could ask for, exercise just a little caution on how deep he’ll be able to go into the game.

Miles MikolasMiles Mikolas FD - P 7000 DK - SP 6400
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - STL
FD - 31.19 DK - 16.11
Miles Mikolas isn’t going to give you a ton of K’s. He’s struck out batters at only an 18% clip in his last two seasons with the Cardinals. But he does make up for some of that strikeout upside by mitigating damage. Remove the 1+ inning disaster In Texas last month (cherry picking sure, but it was such an outlier) and he’s averaging six innings per start. This is thanks to a minuscule 4.6% walk rate and an elite 50% ground ball rate. This helps him throw fewer pitches, get more double plays when runners get on base and make up for the lack of K’s. He’ll face the Marlins, ranked 29th against righties on the season as a -215 home favorite and is coming reasonably priced on both sites.

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Catcher/First Base

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 3900
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - STL
FD - 13.5 DK - 10.17
Goldschmidt broke out of something of a funk on Sunday, going yard in his first at bat against Jason Vargas and reached base three times for the game. He’s struggled this season with an OPS under .800 despite a batted ball profile similar to years past and a 53% hard contact rate which is the highest of his career. While I prefer him in lefty matchups, I’ll make the exception against a guy like Elieser Hernandez who owns a career 5.68 xFIP.

Matt OlsonMatt Olson FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4800
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - OAK
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.44
After struggling much of last season following a 2017 breakout rookie campaign, Olson is turning things back on this year with a .853 OPS and 11 home runs through his first 156 plate appearances. He’s had a steady 10% walk rate since stepping into the majors and this season is rocking a .292 ISO and 125 wRC+. He’s been better against lefties this season, but his career numbers paint a different pitcher with a .364 wOBA in the righty platoon. Facing Andrew Cashner is often a good place to start with hitters and the A’s have a great chance to put up runs on Monday.

Strongly consider Matt Adams who is coming off a monster Sunday.

Second Base

Jason KipnisJason Kipnis FD - 2B 2300 DK - 2B 2700
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.09
Kipnis is still coming very cheap on all sites thanks in large part to being f@#$ing terrible this season. His .558 OPS is about as low as you’ll see from a guy given a steady chance at the plate, but the Indians continue to hit him in the middle of the order. Getting a guy in this lineup spot, with an offense expected to put up runs against Lance Lynn in Texas and you almost have to take the chance on Kipnis considering he’s coming at or around the minimums. The season stats are grizzly, but the opportunity is still very much there.

Jose PerazaJose Peraza FD - 2B 2100 DK - 2B/OF 3200
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - CIN
FD - 9.09 DK - 7.2
With the Reds facing the lefty Wade Miley on Monday, Peraza should find himself in the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup. While not a world beater on offense, it’s worth noting that for his career he does have a respectable .725 OPS against lefties with a .313 wOBA. Those numbers won’t knock your socks off (if such a thing is even possible) but considering he’s coming close to free at a tough position, I think we can go cheap here and not feel all that bad about it. He’s a big-time candidate to make contact considering Miley’s strikeout rate is low and Peraza only K’s 10% of the time in this split for his career.

Shortstop

Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 13.9 DK - 10.6
The Indians rank well below average facing righties this season, but don’t blame Lindor who owns an .889 OPS, 11 home runs, 9 stolen bases and is still one of the best offensive shortstops in the game. Lance Lynn’s put together some decent numbers this season with a K rate over a batter per inning while limiting his walks to 2.5 per nine (the best of his career). But this game is being played in Texas, one of the best power parks in baseball and Lindor leading off at somewhat reasonable prices could see heavy ownership in cash games.

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - OAK
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.15
Like Olson, we are going to want to have some exposure to the A’s in cash games against Andrew Cashner who rings in as one of the weaker arms on the slate. Dude has hovered around a 5.00 xFIP over the last three seasons and allows almost 1.5 home runs per nine in that stretch. Semien has shown a more patient approach this season, getting the walk rate up to over 11% and the .803 OPS represents the best numbers of his career to date. Even in the righty-righty matchup he should still find himself in the leading off on Monday.

Third Base

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - STL
FD - 13.03 DK - 9.71
As with Goldschmidt, the top of this Cardinals’ order is very much in a great spot against Elieser Hernandez who’s flashed some moderate K stuff this season and not much else. He’s allowed a 50% hard contact rate and has been brutalized by lefties for his career to the tune of a .383 wOBA against .900 OPS. He simply can’t get this platoon out and that’s trouble against a bat like Carpenter. Granted, the latter is struggling this season with an OPS barely scraping over .700 but the guy still walks 14% of the time, is struggling in the BABIP department and still has a hard contact rate in line with his career batted ball profile.

Justin TurnerJustin Turner FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 4300
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - LAD
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.72
I expect Turner to continue hitting around the third slot in the lineup for the Dodgers independent of platoon and that should be the case on Monday against Tyler Beede. We are still buying Turner in the middle pricing tier though he’s picked his OPS up to over .800 thanks to a solid May and June at the plate. He’s hammering righties this season which is in line with his career numbers where he’s a reverse platoon guy. His 133 wRC+ and .364 wOBA in that split are much better than his numbers against lefties.

Outfield

Joc PedersonJoc Pederson FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - LAD
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.29
After coming out like gangbusters to start the season, Pederson has had a dreadful half a month in June. But that’s only served to lower his price point in the short term. This is still a guy with a .904 OPS on the season thanks to a quick 18 home runs (easily on pace for his best power numbers) and 10% walk rate. He’s just been running bad in the short term but should be locked into the leadoff slot against the righty Beede.

Dominic SmithDominic Smith FD - OF 2200 DK - 1B/OF 4100
Opponent - ATL (Mike Soroka) Park - ATL
FD - 9.12 DK - 6.98
Dominic Smith took the leadoff slot for the Mets on Sunday and dude should probably stick in that role. He’s been amazing this season in his first 100 plate appearances. He’s walking a whopping 13% of the time, is tough to strike out (20%) and has a .977 OPS. Sure, the .403 BABIP is high, but you are getting a borderline elite on-base guy with power for the minimums on FanDuel. I don’t even really care that he has a tougher matchup in Soroka. This is very much the time to buy on this guy.

There are a bunch of other OF guys who ring in as possible value plays on Monday. Khris Davis (FD $3600 DK $4000) sitting in the middle of the lineup against Cashner is one and there’s likely another Oakland OF who will join this group depending on how their order shakes out.

Dexter Fowler (FD $2800 DK $4000) is in a similar spot against Hernandez.

And finally, I don’t mind Yasiel Puig (FD $3000 DK $4000) against the lefty Miley.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. LOOK AT MIKOLAS’ H/ROAD SPLITS; 7 GS EACH.
    IP, BAA, HRS, WHIP FPTS/G ETC IF THE HOME VERSION SHOWS UP TONIGHT YOU GET A 3X RETURN ON DK .
    MAY BE BEST VALUE ON SLATE

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