Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/16/19

Friday's MLB action features an ace on the mound but also two expensive teams with crazy-high implied run totals. It will be tough to fit all into lineups together.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. While we do have rain forecasted in plenty of cities for this Friday slate, there's only one game we need to worry about. That happens to be the Royals-Mets matchup, with some heavy rain in the forecast. The other cities/teams that have light showers projected are New York, Colorado, Philadelphia and Washington. While none of those are expected to be serious, it's imperative to check before submitting lineups.


Charlie MortonCharlie Morton FD 11300 DK 11600
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET
FD - 43.95 DK - 24.5
Morton is easily the best pitching option on the board. We're talking about a guy with a 2.90 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season while generating a 30 percent K rate dating back to last year. Those absurd numbers are backed up by an xFIP barely cracking 3.00 and it's truly scary just how good of a matchup he gets here. Morton gets to face this terrible Tigers lineup, with the Motor City Kitties currently ranked bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS, K rate and xwOBA. That's why Morton and the Rays enter this matchup as a -310 favorite.

Rick PorcelloRick Porcello FD 6700 DK 7000
Opponent - BAL (Aaron Brooks) Park - BAL
FD - 26.54 DK - 13.73
This might make us certifiably insane to recommend a guy like Porcello but the likelihood at a win is impossible to overlook. The simple fact is, this dude has 145 wins dating back to 2009, which is simply one of the best marks in baseball. That can be attributed to his ability to go deep into games, with Porcello pitching at least 4,2 innings in 20 of his last 22 starts, despite posting a nightmarish ERA and WHIP. He should be able to limit the damage against an offense like this, with Baltimore ranked 21st in K rate, 24th in runs scored, 26th in OBP, 25th in OPS and 27th in both wOBA and xwOBA. That's why Porcello enters this matchup as a -270 favorite with this potent lineup backing him up.


Catcher/First Base

Daniel MurphyDaniel Murphy FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 15.04 DK - 11.55
These prices are truly shocking. How often do you see a Rockies player who bats in the heart of their order priced this cheaply? Especially a guy who has the platoon advantage in his favor and has been hitting well over the last three months. Let's start with his recent form, with Murphy hitting .310 over his last 72 games. Much of that damage has come against righties, with Murphy posting an OPS north of .900 against right-handers since 2016. That doesn't even take into consideration that Murphy has a .337 AVG and .874 OPS at Coors Field this season. Facing Sandy Alcantara is the icing on the cake and we'll go over that later.

Jesus AguilarJesus Aguilar FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.38
Talk about a pricing mistake! This dude has been mashing since he came to Tampa Bay and it's truly amazing just how low these prices are. Since joining the Rays, Aguilar has bat third, fourth or fifth in almost every fixture. That's huge for a guy who's hitting .346 over his last 30 games while generating a .942 OPS in that span. That alone makes this price surprising but Aguilar also gets the platoon advantage against a weak lefty. Not only does Daniel Norris have a 4.94 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season, Aguilar also tallied a .929 OPS against southpaws last season. This is easily my favorite per-dollar play on the board.

If you're in need of a catcher on DK, feel free to use Wilson Ramos against a left-hander.

Second Base

Ryan McMahonRyan McMahon FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 12.88 DK - 9.86
McMahon is quietly having a really nice year for the Rockies and it's always nice to get a Coors bat in there at this sort of price. We're talking about one of the hottest hitters on this team, with McMahon hitting .297 over his last 30 games while posting a .385 OBP in that span. That doesn't even take into consideration his power potential, with McMahon posting a .969 OPS in that same span. That's huge for a guy in the heart of a lineup projected for 7.5 runs and he's one of the best value plays on the board.

Max MuncyMax Muncy FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Mike Soroka) Park - ATL
FD - 11.93 DK - 8.89
Picking second basemen always sucks but Muncy definitely makes it a little easier. This dude has done nothing but rake since joining the Dodgers last season, as he's got an ISO just shy of .300 in that span. In addition, Muncy has a .379 OBP, .547 SLG and .927 OPS since joining Los Angeles last season. Those are some of the best numbers in the game and he's always better against right-handers. He comes into this matchup hot too, collecting four doubles, three homers, 11 RBI and seven walks over his last 10 games.


Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Aaron Brooks) Park - BAL
FD - 15.28 DK - 11.66
The Red Sox and Rockies both have implied team totals over seven, so you probably know where these shortstop write-ups are going. The Boston shortstop has easily been one of the best players in the AL and it's time for people to start giving Bogaerts some MVP consideration. The career-high numbers speak for themselves, with Bogaerts generating a .308 AVG, .384 OBP, .563 SLG and .947 OPS this season. Those are truly amazing numbers and two homers on Wednesday means he's definitely in play against this putrid Orioles pitching staff.

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 4400 DK 5700
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 16.33 DK - 12.39
We always have to consider Story at home, especially against a pitcher like this. We foreshadowed earlier that we want to stack against Sandy Alcantara, so let's go over that matchup. The Marlins righty is currently pitching to a 4.44 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season, which is why Colorado is projected for more than seven runs. He's been even worse recently, pitching to a 6.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last eight starts. That's scary against Story, who's got five homers and six doubles over his last 11 games while posting a .677 SLG and 1.067 at home this season.

Third Base

Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 4300 DK 5600
Opponent - BAL (Aaron Brooks) Park - BAL
FD - 15.6 DK - 11.86
This is such an obvious play when looking at the Bogaerts write-up. Devers has arguably been the best hitter in the AL since the opening month and it's time for people to start taking notice. Since April 25, Devers is hitting .339 while totaling a .636 SLG and 1.012 OPS. He's been even hotter recently, collecting six doubles, four homers and 10 RBI over his last 10 games en route to a .378 AVG and 1.182 OPS. That's truly scary for Aaron Brooks, with Devers generating a 1.034 OPS against right-handers this season.

Todd FrazierTodd Frazier FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.52
This is pretty much a punt play but Frazier has quietly had a resurgent season for the Mets. Since May 16, the Todd Father has a .253 AVG, .337 OBP, .451 SLG and .788 OPS. While that's nothing special, it's really all you can ask for from someone in this price range. What makes him intriguing here is this matchup, as he gets the platoon advantage against Mike Montgomery and his 5.19 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. So far this season, Frazier has a .292 AVG, .370 OBP, .562 SLG and .932 OPS against southpaws.


Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Aaron Brooks) Park - BAL
FD - 17.98 DK - 13.68
J.D. MartinezJ.D. Martinez FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - BAL (Aaron Brooks) Park - BAL
FD - 17.2 DK - 12.92 We really haven't discussed why we like the Red Sox so much on this slate, so let's go over that here. They get to face the Orioles and opposing batters have been making minced meat of this team all season long. That's evident by their  5.91 tea, ERA, as this club is actually on pace to set the record for most home runs allowed. Aaron Brooks definitely hasn't helped them out, as his 6.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are on par with the rest of the putrid pitching staff.

Now that we have that out of the way, let's go over these batters. To put it simply, Martinez and Betts are some of the best hitters in the game. That's clear when you look at their fantasy rankings, with both of these guys Top-10 in total fantasy points since the beginning of last season. J.D. is unbelievably hot right now too, amassing a .392 AVG, .464 OBP, .732 SLG and 1.196 OPS over his last 24 games. Betts is expected to hit leadoff for this club and that's big for a guy who has a .396 OBP and .963 OPS over his last 39 games played.

Josh VanMeterJosh VanMeter FD 2400 DK 3700
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.87
This price truly blows my mind. This dude has done nothing but rake since getting called up and this is one of the best matchups possible. Let's start with Adam Wainwright, as his 4.66 ERA and 1.43 WHIP dating back to 2015 makes him a pitcher we definitely want to exploit. He's been particularly terrible against left-handed bats, allowing them to post a .377 OBP, .362 wOBA, 1.70 WHIP and 5.60 FIP against him this season. That's awesome for a lefty masher like JVM, who's got a .328 AVG, .597 SLG and .989 OPS over his last 24 games.


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