Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/3/19
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If you're in your season-long playoffs like I am, this is arguably the biggest week of the season. That's why these articles are so important because it will help people in whatever formats they choose to play. While this is DFS-centric, all of this information can help you to examine players in particular situations. I've learned so much about splits from all of these articles and it's a great tool to gain knowledge.
This is a total puny play but Montgomery is one of the best DK values I've seen all season long. That $4,300 price tag is actually below many of the premier hitters and it's going to be tough to fade him at that sort of price. The reason for that is because of this matchup, with the Tigers ranked dead-last in runs scored, OBP, K rate and xwOBA. Montgomery has been much better recently too, pitching to a 2.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate over his last five starts. That's all you can ask for from a $4,300 pitcher with the best matchup in baseball.
Now that we got a punt play out of the way, let's get a higher-end option into our build. Let's start with this matchup, as he faces one of the worst offenses in baseball. In fact, the Giants currently rank 25th in runs scored, 26th in OBP, 27th in wOBA and 26th in OPS. That's truly scary against one of the hottest pitchers in the game, with Flaherty pitching to a 1.01 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 rate over his last 10 starts. Vegas couldn't agree more with our assessment, projecting the Giants for less than four runs while making the Cardinals a -280 favorite in this game.
We are definitely going to want some exposure to the Indians tonight as they lead all teams in implied runs(6.3). They are at home and will be going up against Dylan Cease who has but nothing short of a disaster this season and after giving up eight earned runs in his last start now enters this matchup with a 6.92 ERA/4.81 xFIP. For upside, we are always looking for power potential and Cease offers that as well as he has given up at least one home run in all 10 of his starts(13 total for a 22.8% HR/FB rate). Santana is a little more expensive on FanDuel but is definitely in play on both sites and has been very consistent all season with a .292/.411/.548 slashline and has upside as well with 32 home runs on the season. He is in play in all formats.
Olson is one of the best bets on the board to homer. This dude has been one of the most prolific power hitters since joining the A's three years ago, which is evident by his .252 career ISO. He's been much better against right-handers too, posting a .356 OBP, .547 SLG and .903 OPS against them since 2017. We have to love those elite numbers against a bad pitcher like Jaime Barria, who's pitching to a 6.10 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
This is the definition of a punt play but sometimes you have to do that at such a weak position like second base. The little man has struggled early on in his time with the Marlins but there's a lot in his profile to get excited about. At Triple-A this season, Diaz put together a .305 AVG, .395 OBP, .578 SLG and .973 OPS. That's monster production from a guy who has some speed too and it's hard to fade that sort of upside against such a weak pitcher. Diaz gets the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller also, who's pitching to a 8.62 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in his rookie season.
Kipnis is currently dealing with a minor wrist injury but if he's in the lineup today, he's one of the best options on the board. The reason for that is his recent form, with Kipnis accruing a .279 AVG, .344 OBP, .515 SLG and .859 OPS over his last 62 fixtures. That constitutes him as one of the best second basemen in the game, especially with the platoon advantage in his favor. Not only does Kipnis have a career OPS approaching .800 against righties, he also gets to face Dylan Cease and his 6.92 ERA and 1.63 WHIP here.
This FanDuel price is insulting for one of the best shortstops in baseball. Any 20-20 hitter who bats atop a lineup should be $4,000 on FanDuel, especially a guy as hot as this. Over his last 35 games, Villar is hitting .358 while providing a .428 OBP, .642 SLG and 1.080 OPS. What makes that even wilder is the fact that Villar has 16 steals in that span, which simply makes him one of the best producers in fantasy. Facing a righty is simply the icing on the cake, with Villar amassing a .361 OBP and .829 OPS against them this season while swiping 25 of his 33 steals.
It's going to be tough to fade Lindor in such a premium matchup. The aforementioned Cease numbers in the Kipnis write-up are downright ugly but it also puts Lindor on his favorable left side. So far this season, Lindor is generating a .313 AVG, .578 SLG and .927 OPS against righties. That's actually not far off of his .296 AVG, .531 SLG and .878 OPS for the year, which is scary since he has 20 steals as well. Lindor is raking right now too, totaling a .922 OPS over his last 52 fixtures.
Let's kick off some Dodgers bats against Chi Chi Gonzalez. This Rockies staff has been absolutely horrendous this season and Gonzalez is one of the major reasons why. His 8.07 ERA and 1.82 WHIP speaks loudly and that's really scary against an offense who ranks Top-5 in runs scored and xwOBA. That means Turner is directly in play, right in the heart of the order. The Red Rocket is absolutely rolling right now too, posting a 1.008 OPS over his last 46 games in total.
While we're not exactly sure who's going to start for the Blue Jays here, we have to love Donaldson no matter who it is. The reason for that is because he's returned to his MVP form recently. Ever since the opening month, Donaldson has an OBP north of .400 and an OPS just shy of 1.000. That's amazing production from a player in this price range and if he's facing Trent Thornton like I project, that's certainly nothing to worry about with him accruing a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
If you've been following my work, you know that I have a man-crush on Corey Dickerson. This dude has done nothing but mash right-handed pitching since his days with the Rockies and he's truly an All-Star bat in these circumstances. That's evident by his .244 ISO and .364 wOBA career averages against righties, which are actually below his season averages this year. In fact, Dickerson has a .292 ISO and .397 wOBA against right-handers en route to a .327 AVG, .620 SLG and .991 OPS. Much of that damage has come recently, with Dickerson hitting .329 over his last 29 games en route to a .984 OPS.
What are with these prices? Taylor has always been a $3,000 player on FanDuel and a $4,500 player on DK and it's hard to understand their algorithm here. The matchup against Chi Chi is obviously the main reason we like Taylor, with the Dodgers projected for more than five runs. This guy has been much better than this price would indicate too, hitting .333 over his last 35 games while amassing a .575 SLG and .982 OPS in that span.
VanMeter has been batting leadoff for the Reds recently against right-handers and that's really ravishing for his sky-rising fantasy value. Is that enough R's for you? Anyway, VanMeter's .352 OBP and .820 OPS against righties shows why he's been batting leadoff and that alone makes him a great bet to succeed here. His recent form is the most enticing aspect about using JVM though, with the leadoff man posting a .350 OBP and .854 OPS over his last 42 games. We're certainly not worried about Vince Velaquez either, with the Phillies righty pitching to a 4.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season.