featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 6 - 10/13/19
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Kyler Murray FD 7700 DK 6500
Proj Points FD - 20.9 DK - 21.65
On the season, Kyler Murray is ranked 9th overall in DraftKings quarterback scoring. That doesn’t sound all that impressive until you see that he has seven fewer passing touchdowns than the next closest guy to him on the list above. This isn’t to say the Cardinals are going to just pour on tons of TDs in the name of offensive regression, but I do think it’s safe to assume this number comes up over the course of the season on a per game basis. A big reason for his fantasy gains is his work on the ground. He’s behind only Lamar Jackson in QB rushing yards this season with 206. Atlanta is fresh off a week in which Deshaun Watson torched them through the air and it’s safe(ish) to assume the Cardinals want to keep pace on offense with an Atlanta attack that comes in with the second-highest implied total on the main slate.
Matt Ryan FD 8100 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 22.87 DK - 23.74
Speaking of that high total, the Falcons should be in line for a number of points in this game. Arizona and Atlanta are averaging the second and third most average quarterback points per game on DraftKings this season (thank Miami for leading that category) and I do think we see Ryan and Murray as the chalkier cash game plays. For all of Atlanta’s issues as a team, Ryan is still the 6th-best fantasy quarterback on the season mostly because the team is playing in constant catch-up mode. He’s attempted the most passes in the league (222) and is completing them at a 70% clip. The weapons are still there through the air and you have to love the team total.
Lamar Jackson FD 8200 DK 6900
Proj Points FD - 25.39 DK - 25.57
Jackson really struggled in Week 5 against the Steelers, throwing three interceptions and completing only 19 passes in a 26-23 OT win. And even with that rough outing, he’s still the third-highest scoring fantasy quarterback on the season and will face a bottom-feeding Cincinnati Bengals’ defense in Week 6. The Ravens have the second-highest implied team total for the main slate and should be able to work downhill in this matchup. That leaves some worry about them just pounding the ball on the ground with guys like Ingram, but Jackson has run so much since Week 1 that I think he’s still a safe play even in the upper price tier. Because I think we’ll save some at running back, I don’t think Jackson is priced out of consideration.
Dalvin Cook FD 8200 DK 8400
Proj Points FD - 20.4 DK - 22.25
With McCaffrey off the main slate, we're left with precious few game script independent running backs to pick from. With that in mind, I'm totally happy with letting Cook stand in for him in the meantime. With 21 carries and 6 targets against the Giants, Cook has had 20 or more plays drawn up for him in all five of his games so far. He got his points the hard way against the Giants as well, putting together 218 yards from scrimmage without scoring a touchdown. This week's match-up with Philly is certainly harder, but the Vikes are 3 point favorites at home, and Vegas still believes that this Cook-led offense can get things done. There is a path this week where you don't pay up at all at running back, but given the safety Cook provides from every angle he's a tough one for me to imagine fading here.
Leonard Fournette FD 7300 DK 6700
Proj Points FD - 17.77 DK - 19.3
We've beaten the Fournette drum essentially all season once it became clear that he would be sliding back into bell-cow duties, and that he has. He's coming off of a game where he had 23 carries and 7 targets in spite of the fact that his team trailed by 14 at one point and never led throughout the entire contest. The Jags are one point favorites against the Saints, and it certainly looks unlikely that the game will get away from them to the point where Fournette isn't heavily involved. He's also shed his early season inefficiencies, averaging 6.4 yards per carry in the 52 carries he's had in the last two weeks. While you're paying more for Fournette now that he's demonstrated increased safety, I still think he's under priced in favorable spots like this one.
Le'Veon Bell FD 6800 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 18.26 DK - 21.15
We talked about this on the podcast, but at 25.7 touches per game, Le'Veon Bell is only trailing Christian McCaffrey in terms of how involved he is in his team's offense. He's a guy we were happily paying $9,000 for in his last active season, so is he a slam dunk against the Cowboys here? Well, it's probably not quite that easy. The Cowboys have been roughly league average against the run this season, but the real question here surrounds the game script. With Sam Darnold officially active this week, could the Jets actually keep things reasonably close? Vegas has them as 8.5 point underdogs at home, but if Darnold is as big an upgrade over Falk as we believe I think it could be even closer. Mark my words: there will be a week where Bell tops 200 yards from scrimmage, and we'll have to pay 10% more for him. I'm happy to prioritize his opportunity given the lack of truly safe options elsewhere.
David Johnson FD 6900 DK 7600
Proj Points FD - 18.66 DK - 21.29
A lot of people pumped the party with DJ in week 5, and he was everything they hoped he'd be if you concede that he didn't make it into the end zone. With 156 yards on 20 touches, Johnson was dynamic and exciting - until his back locked up and his touches became more limited. Still, DJ says his back is feeling "good" and that he should be good to go against an Atlanta team that just gave up 53 points to the Texans. He's a little rich for my blood on DraftKings, but I could absolutely see going back to the well on FanDuel given that this game has a tight spread and the second highest total.
Cooper Kupp FD 7800 DK 7100
Proj Points FD - 17.81 DK - 21.15
I’m not sure what Cooper Kupp has to do to reach peak FanDuel and DraftKings’ pricing, but I guess it hasn’t happened yet. Despite being the second-highest fantasy scoring WR on the season (essentially neck and neck with Chris Godwin), Kupp remains the 4th and 5th highest salary WR on DK and FD respectively. His 63 targets are the most in the league, eight more than Michael Thomas who’s second. Kupp’s fewest targets in a game were nine in Week 2 and he’s top 100 yards receiving in four straight games. I don’t really know what else to say here. The matchup isn’t ideal against a very strong San Francisco secondary who could scheme against him especially if Brandin Cooks weren’t to clear the concussion protocol. That would be the only potential ding on Kupp here, but man is it ever tough to get away from him in cash games right now.
Michael Thomas FD 8200 DK 7800
Proj Points FD - 19.86 DK - 24.28
Do you think Michael Thomas even wants Drew Brees to come back at this point? Since Teddy Bridgewater fully took over as the starter in Week 3, Thomas has seen a 32% target share (29-91). The first two weeks, from a fantasy perspective, weren’t amazing mostly because New Orleans didn’t throw the ball a ton. But dude broke out in a big way against the Bucs last week with a 11/182/3 line. He could be in for another one in Week 6. The Jaguars will likely be without Jalen Ramsey again, leaving them compromised in the secondary. In the last two weeks without Ramsey, lesser WR1 types had good games:
DJ Moore 6/91 (9 targets)
Emmanuel Sanders 5/104 (9 targets)
Thomas should put a hurting on Jacksonville. With running back as a possible middle-tier value spot in Week 6, I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to pay up for two WRs who are outclassing the field in target share this season.
Christian Kirk FD 5600 DK 5200
Proj Points FD - 13.01 DK - 15.58
Larry Fitzgerald FD 5600 DK 6100
Proj Points FD - 12.48 DK - 15.14
Through the first five weeks of the season, Atlanta has allowed the most opposing WRs to score more than 20 DraftKings points in a week. It’s happened five times. Only two teams have allowed four 20+ point scorers. Kirk sat out Week 5 with an injury, but is expected to play in Week 6. If he does, and if David Johnson sits (both “ifs”) I think we are looking at a chance to stack the Arizona big two receivers. Both Kirk and Fitzgerald, who are each averaging nine targets a game, would have high floors.
Conversely, if Kirk were to sit again, Fitz would easily become a fantastic stand alone value in this Arizona passing attack. Kyler Murray’s accuracy is still something of an issue, but this would represent another fantastic matchup for the Cardinals.
Strongly consider playing Michael Gallup who actually leads the Cowboys in targets per game this season (9.67). He looked completely healthy in Week 5 against the Packers and draws a great matchup against the Jets’ defense. He makes for a solid mid-tier play.
A couple of other notes:. Folks will rightly want to play Julio Jones against the Cardinals, but I’m still skeptical here. Matt Ryan has really spread the love this season. In the dome, with Atlanta really needing a win I suppose we could see a smash spot game for Jones, but it’s just so tough to pay all the way up for him considering his target share this season.
I suppose folks will also want to go back to the Will Fuller well after he put up the best WR game of the season in Week 5. The matchup against KC could also be a shootout. But one game does not a projection make and he hasn’t been a model of consistency for his career.
Austin Hooper FD 6400 DK 5000
Proj Points FD - 11.76 DK - 14.75
Hooper is having a nice little run of his own right now, and has this delicious match-up with the fast paced Cardinals. Hooper is currently 4th in overall targets among tight ends this season, and is somehow exactly tied with Evan Engram in DraftKings for the most points among tight ends this season. With 15 catches for 186 yards on 20 targets in the last two weeks, Hooper has brought plenty of consistency to the table, and he hasn't even been getting in the endzone. I think we're getting a value on his price thanks to running bad on touchdowns, and expect these to be among his lowest prices on the season.
Gerald Everett FD 6000 DK 3600
Proj Points FD - 9.54 DK - 11.6
I'm not sure the savings is worth the risk on FanDuel, but on DraftKings this looks awfully tempting. Everett has amassed 19 targets over the last two weeks, and given the current state of tight end that makes him a guy you have to consider. With Cooks in the concussion protocol we could see his targets up for grabs, and with the Rams throwing 117 passes over the last two weeks it looks like they are going to be able to sustain plenty of receivers in the passing game. The reason I don't want to recommend him in cash on FanDuel, though, is actually exactly because his good weeks have come when the Rams have played in these wild games. Given that the Rams are favored here, you could certainly see a case where they throw more like 35-45 times, and if that's the case you'd have to think Everett could be the odd man out. On DraftKings the price is low enough that you don't need to sweat it.
Also considered: Mark Andrews, though I'm honestly worried about the foot situation. As soon as he gets a clean bill of health, I'll be fully back on the train.
Defense / Special Teams
Cowboys FD 5000 DK 4300
Proj Points FD - 8.44 DK - 8.44
The big question surrounding this week is: how much better will the Jets offense be with Sam Darnold back under center? Their offense looked fairly shaky in week 1, but that was against a Bills defense that we now know is pretty darned good. Still, with a 17.5 point implied total this week, Vegas likes the Jets to score the fewest points of any offense on the main slate, and paying up for the Cowboys probably represents a reasonably high floor.
Vikings FD 3600 DK 2600
Proj Points FD - 6.99 DK - 6.99
I have to say, though, that it's pretty tempting just to take some savings and go for the Vikings. Yes, the Eagles are a far more potent offense than the Jets are. But the Vikings are also likely a better defense than the Cowboys. Vegas thinks the Eagles are only going to score three more points than the Jets, and saving $1,000 on FanDuel and $1,700 on DraftKings doesn't seem bad. Throw in the fact that the Vikings are a top 10 sack team on the season so far and it seems like you have every bit as much floor here as you do with the Cowboys.
Redskins FD 4200 DK 3200
Proj Points FD - 7.6 DK - 7.6
Dolphins FD 3700 DK 2700
Proj Points FD - 5.7 DK - 5.7
Okay, bear with me for a second. You're never going to play either of these defenses against anyone else... but the strategy of taking the defenses playing the Dolphins or Redskins has been fairly bullet proof so far this season, right? The other thing about these defenses is that they've looked particularly terrible because the offenses can't stay on the field, but what happens when they are opposing another terrible offense? What's better, the movable object or the stoppable force? You can be sure that plenty of folks are going to stick their necks out and try plays like these this week.