Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 11/4/19On Monday, we could be looking at a stars and scrubs approach to lineups on both sites. There are superstars in great spots with plenty of cheaper options as well because of injuries and suspensions.
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Point GuardKyrie Irving FD - $9700 DK - $9500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 54.91 DK - 56.52
From a statistical and real-life basketball sense, Kyrie has been everything and more for the Nets since coming over this summer in free agency. He’s averaging 31 points, 7.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds on a little less than 34 minutes per game. He’s taking 23 shots per game, getting to the line seven times and knocking threes down at almost 40%. Dude has really done it all. It’s not translating to 1:1 wins for the Brooklyn Nets so far, but that really isn’t a Kyrie issue. He gets a borderline dream matchup against a banged-up Pelicans team playing the fourth-worst defensive efficiency this season at a breakneck pace. There’s no early line on the game, but you have to figure it will be the second-highest of the night after the Houston-Memphis game. Kyrie is still an excellent value on both sites and considering what he’s doing across the box score, has a higher floor even if the shot isn’t dropping.
Jeff Teague FD - $6200 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.87 DK - 32.6
With Karl-Anthony Towns suspended last game, and ejected the game before, Teague has seen his two highest volume shooting games in the short term. With the offense running primarily through KAT to start the season, Teague’s role had been marginalized to some degree. But he’s more on ball with Towns out and the price doesn’t totally reflect this *new* opportunity. He put up a 15 point, 13 assist line on Saturday against the Wizards in just 28 minutes. The matchup against the Bucks is a much tougher one though, something that does knock down the expectation some, especially if the affair turns into a blowout. That being said, Teague is for sure a cash game option on a slate when we will need some mid-tier value to round out the spend up superstar options.
Other thoughts Ben Simmons (FD 9500 DK 8500) will likely see some cash game ownership again with Joel Embiid also still suspended from the altercation with Towns. I like the DraftKings price much more than FanDuel.
Shooting GuardJames Harden FD - $11000 DK - $10800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 72.32 DK - 74.41
Well, the good news is that Russell Westbrook is going to sit the second half of the back-to-back on Monday leaving plenty of point guard minutes and usage to head back Harden’s way in this matchup. The bad news is the latter’s been all over the place to start the season. He’s shooting at his typical incredibly high volume, close to 23 shots and 13 threes per game. But he’s also only hit from beyond the arc at 21%, leaving a lot of points on the board for the Rockets. On Monday against the Grizzlies, I think we see higher ownership on Harden though because of Russ sitting and Memphis is playing one of the league’s fastest paces with a below average defensive efficiency. The only stat we’ve seen drop off for Harden, besides the run bad in shooting, is the rebounds but that could be a Westbrook effect that isn’t in play for Monday.
Bruce Brown Jr. FD - $3900 DK - $3200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 21.92 DK - 21.71
Langston Galloway FD - $3800 DK - $3200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 21.51 DK - 22.02
If you can tell, I’m not looking to spend all that much on the second shooting guard position for FanDuel and on DraftKings we aren’t likely to consider many of these guys because of the multi-position eligibility. That being said, each of them are coming cheap for our needs. Bruce Brown played 40 minutes for the Pistons with Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier on Saturday and spent significant time with primary ball-handling duties. He actually led the team in shots with 20 and had a breakout fantasy game we haven’t seen much in the past from the guy. With Rose and Frazier both out on Monday, the minutes should be there once again. Point guard duties for this current iteration of the Pistons has never yielded a ton of fantasy upside, but Brown doesn’t need it at these punt prices. He’s a great cash game play from that perspective and the matchup against the Wizards is a good one.
Meanwhile, Galloway played 28 minutes off the bench and was serviceable. He’s simply another cheap option to consider at shooting guard who could see some more minutes in this game. He had some foul trouble last game against the Nets.
Small ForwardMarkieff Morris FD - $4300 DK - $4000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.09 DK - 29
I do think we’ll be taking something of a stars and scrubs approach on this slate considering guys like Harden, Kyrie, Drummond and Giannis are all in excellent spots. Spending up on two, or even three of them could be the priority on Monday, leaving us to find value in other places when we can get it. Markieff played 34 minutes on Saturday for the Pistons who’ve had players dropping like flies to start the season. He put up a modest 13 points and four rebounds that didn’t really get the job done at these prices. The scoring upside is there if he’s knocking down his threes especially though with Drummond around the rebounds are going to be a bit harder to come by. But again, the price and minutes are the main thing for Markieff at a thinner small forward position.
Eric Gordon FD - $3900 DK - $4000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.88 DK - 26.51
Eric Gordon drew the start for the Rockets on Sunday in place of Danuel House. The Rockets were then completely dismantled by the Heat. They’ll have a chance for a bounce back against the Grizzlies who don’t appear to have a lot of incentive to win this season. The arrival of Russell Westbrook has really cut into Gordon’s statistical bottom line this season. He’s taking fewer shots (12 per game) while the assists and rebounds are almost completely nonexistent. But with Westbrook sitting out this one, I think we have a great chance to buy low on a better, more well-rounded fantasy line from Gordon. He’s always been very scoring dependent to hit fantasy value and that’s been another issue for him this year. He’s only shooting 22% from three and 27% from the field. These are way down from his career numbers. Some positive regression on that front could have him crushing these prices and he’s in line for a lot of minutes.
I do like Luke Kennard (FD 5000 DK 5000) here as well. He’s firmly planted in the starting lineup for the Pistons, has taken 15 threes in the last two games and knocked them down at around 40%.
Power ForwardAl Horford FD - $7500 DK - $6900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.65 DK - 40.99
Embiid is still out for Monday and we are getting a pretty good sense of what Hereford’s role is when the other big is out of the picture. In the two games Embiid has missed this season, Big Al is averaging 24 points, seven rebounds and six assists in about 32 minutes. Those numbers are way up compared to what he does when Embiid is around. The prices on Horford haven’t corrected to reflect that he is the primary post guy for the Sixers now and has significantly higher implied usage. In those games against the Pistons and Blazers, Horford averaged 21 shots, including 5.5 from beyond the arc. He’s a fairly straightforward cash game play on both sites and is an especially attractive option on DraftKings.
After Horford, the power forward options all have a few question marks around them.
If Jarrett Allen (FD 5200 DK 4400) draws the start at center for the Nets against the Pelicans (and I think he will) then he would become a solid option on both sites. He isn’t asked to score all that much in the Nets’ current offense, but the rebounds and blocks could carry the day at these prices.
I do think the Pistons’ plan is to play Rui Hachimura (FD 5500 DK 5700) consistently high minutes. The matchup against Detroit is a good one here and the rookie has shown the ability to put up quality stat lines. The last game was a complete stinker, but before that he was averaging 18 points and seven boards on 33 minutes per game.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is doubtful for Sunday and that could slide Brandon Clarke (FD 5600 DK 4800) into the starting role. The guy has been excellent on a per-minute fantasy basis this season and would see a big pace up game against the Rockets.
CenterAndre Drummond FD - $10600 DK - $10400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 55.23 DK - 55.14
This dude has been completely ridiculous to start the season with Blake Griffin on the shelf. It hasn’t translated to many Pistons’ wins, but who cares. Drummond has three straight 20-20 games and is averaging a 21 point, 17 rebound, two block line on the season while running more than 35 minutes per. The Wizards aren’t giving up a to starting centers this season, but that stat can be misleading. They haven’t played teams with fantasy-first centers and certainly no one like Drummond. He’s another of the expensive tough choices we’ll have to make on Monday. The price has ticked up across the board based on the crazy performance. The one case against him has less to do with the guy himself and more to do with the possibility of some cheaper options at the position.
Gorgui Dieng FD - $4000 DK - $3300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 32.39 DK - 31.53
After basically not playing all year, Dieng drew the start for Karl-Anthony Towns on Saturday and was awesome posting 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in just 24 minutes against the Wizards. Remember what I just said about Washington’s interior D? Dieng is still coming near the minimums on both sites and would make sure a possibly chalky cash play on both sites assuming he’s back in the starting lineup again. From years past we’ve seen his ability to fill up the box score if given even moderate minutes. I think he’s one of the highest owned DraftKings plays on the slate.
Jahlil Okafor FD - $5000 DK - $3100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.76 DK - 31.83 Okafor is the other reason we might not see crazy ownership on Drummond for this slate. He’s started the last three games. The first one was a disaster against the Warriors in which he only played 12 minutes. But the last two have been excellent running 34 and 29 minutes respectively with an average of 20 points and eight rebounds. Now he’ll get a dream matchup against the Nets who are still getting blitzed by opposing centers to start the season. Stacking Dieng and Okafor on DraftKings makes a lot of sense considering their minimum pricing and upside. On FanDuel I prefer Dieng for $1K cheaper.
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