Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 11/5/19After a big-scoring Monday in the Association, things might calm down a bit here on Tuesday with some more defensively sound squads taking the court. Let's check out some of the FanDuel and DraftKings value out there on a six-game slate.
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Point GuardKemba Walker FD - $9100 DK - $8500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 45.82 DK - 47.06
Walker’s had a nice run of games in the short term, two of them without Jaylen Brown in the lineup. The latter will sit again on Tuesday leaving some usage and minutes to go around for the Boston guards/ wings in this matchup. In close games, the plan appears to play Walker around 37 minutes and that gives him such a high floor even with the fantasy production a bit reliant on his real-life scoring. Cleveland doesn’t play at that fast of a pace, but they are a bottom-third defensive efficiency team this year and have particular trouble matching opposing guards with Sexton and Garland in the backcourt. This is a great spot for Kemba and considering the nature of the slate, I do think he sees significant ownership.
Jamal Murray FD - $6500 DK - $6500
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 33.24 DK - 34.5
Murray’s minutes have been rather consistent to start the season and he’s putting up nearly an identical line to last year for the Nuggets. As a labeled point guard, the assist numbers will never be all that robust considering most of the offense runs through Nikola Jokic, but Murray can still knock down the three when given the chance. He’s taking about five attempts from beyond the arc and does actually rebound the position okay with five boards per game. Miami’s pace is much higher this year than in seasons past and they rank sixth at 108.5. That beings said, the Heat are very good on defense, so this isn’t necessarily an ideal matchup. But point guard is a bit thin and this is a defensive kind of slate for sure.
Markelle Fultz (FD 4700 DK 4000) moved into the starting lineup for the Magic on Saturday, but it didn’t translate to many more minutes or production. I’m holding out some hope the run increases in this role and he does have an okay floor because of the defensive stats.
Shooting GuardMarcus Smart FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.41 DK - 30.06
Smart started again for Jaylen Brown on Saturday against the Knicks but did run into some foul trouble and saw his minutes barely scrape over 30. This was a game removed from running 39 in a similar spot and putting up a 19 point, six rebound, four assist line. The 16 shots in that game against the Bucks were likely an outlier for the wing more known for his defensive prowess. But I do think the plan is to play Smart in the mid 30’s minutes again at least. He’ll likely be third or fourth in the usage hierarchy, but can make it up along the margins especially with the defensive stats when things are rolling.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $7600 DK - $7500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.63 DK - 37.47
After three straight 25+ point games, Derozan really hasn’t done much over the last couple and the price is down a bit in the short term. He’s a tough player to get a handle on this season and the days of big-scoring, high-ceiling fantasy totals might be behind him. But the midrange game is still very much alive for the dude and he has games of rebounding the position moderately well. Though some of his numbers are down this season, I think this is an ok cash game spot if there is value opening up elsewhere. The Hawks don’t have fantastic perimeter defense and Derozan should be able to exploit some gaps in their scheme.
If Will Barton sits again I think Gary Harris (FD 5200 DK 4800) becomes a bit of a safer play and you could even consider a true punt in Torrey Craig (FD 3600 DK 3300) but the latter has a very low ceiling.
If Trae Young sits again then Deandre Bembry (FD 4700 DK 5300) is an intriguing FanDuel play. He’s still (probably) coming off the bench, but put up a big line last game with no Young on the court.
Small ForwardLeBron James FD - $11700 DK - $9600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.36 DK - 51.3
Age 34 season and a million miles on the body don’t seem to be effecting Lebron James at all. In fact, he’s putting up one of his best statistical seasons to date with 26 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds per game. He’s triple-doubled in the last two games and has looked every bit the superstar he’s always been with new life breathed into the Lakers after the arrival of Anthony Davis. The Bulls are a bottom-third defensive team this year, ranking 21st in efficiency and allowing 103.8 opponent possessions per game. Lebron was a chalk play on DraftKings on Saturday and stands to be one again at only $9600. He’s a tough fade there for sure sub $10K and will see high ownership in this matchup. The FanDuel price is a little harder to swallow unless some more cheap value opens up elsewhere.
Gordon Hayward FD - $6900 DK - $6400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.69 DK - 35.69
The last two games have been solid for Hayward and Jaylen Brown sitting once again gives him a higher minutes and usage floor than when Boston is at full strength. He’s put up 17 and 11 shots respectively in those two, with 31.8 and 45.5 fantasy points respectively. The 9 and 10 rebounds over the last two games are better than his season long average and he’s knocked down threes at a 50% rate. Like we said with Kemba, the Cavs are a bad defensive team so there’s good reason to believe the Celtics will put up points in this one. I still like Hayward’s price points and we will get at least one more game without Brown on the court.
If Trae Young sits again, then De'Andre Hunter (FD 4500 DK 4400) and Cam Reddish (FD 4200 DK 4900) would be in play on FanDuel.
Power ForwardAnthony Davis FD - $11900 DK - $10000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 67.37 DK - 66.85
Anthony Davis and Lebron James are a two-man show right now and have the Lakers looking every bit like one of the best teams in the league. Davis’s fantasy returns haven’t been as consistent as Lebron’s but that’s only a knock by comparison. Dude is still averaging 29 points, 11.5 rebounds and three blocks per game which would be the best fantasy season of his career if they ended the year like this. Finding a way to stack both AD and James on DraftKings is where folks will probably take their lineups and I think it’s correct. They aren’t cost-prohibitive in a way that has you sacrificing too much on the lower end of the salary scale. It’s a different story on FanDuel where positional issues and tighter pricing do make is a tougher sell. That being said, for cash games, this tandem does give you the floor you’re dreaming about. After Davis, we have a bunch of question marks that will need sorting before lineups lock. Most of them are injury related and we should have a clearer picture on Tuesday.
If Steven Adams sits again then Nerlens Noel (FD 5600 DK 4400) would become almost a chalk option on both sites, but especially DraftKings. The latter is also questionable though it looks like Noel will play. He’s had one great game and one stinker in this starting center role, but the price and opportunity are such that we can consider him again if Adams sits.
If Trae Young is still out then I don’t mind Jabari Parker (FD 4800 DK 5000) even off the bench. He’s a higher usage, lower impact type of player, but he’s unlikely to kill you at these prices.
If both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner sit again then I think you can consider TJ Leaf (FD 3900 DK 5000). When Leaf started he played 8 minutes and sucked. When he came off the bench the next game dude racked up 22 minutes and a 13 point/ 15 rebound line. You figure it out.
CenterNikola Vucevic FD - $8600 DK - $8400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.61 DK - 46.94
After a career year in 2018-19 Vucevic signed a big contract in the offseason. Things haven’t necessarily started out along the same lines. The scoring is down from 20.8 points per game to 16.8 and he’s not rebounding at nearly the same rate (10 per game, down from 12). I’m more concerned with the latter for sure seeing as how his scoring issues stem mostly from run bad shooting. He’s hitting 22% of this threes at 3.8 per game despite being a 33% shooter from beyond the arc. The overall field goal shooting is down as well to 43%. I do think we see some correction there over the long term. The boards are a bit more alarming and if there’s a change in scheme that has him away from the basket more then we might not see the number tick all the way back up.
Dwight Howard FD - $6200 DK - $5100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.6 DK - 30.78
I guess we have to talk about Dwight Howard huh? After signing a roll of the dice contract, and acting as something of an afterthought, Dwight’s been dare-I-say, good so far this season. He’s double-doubled in two of the last four games, is swatting everything in sight (3.25 blocks per 30) and is shooting nearly 80% from the field. The only real concern I suppose are the minutes seeing as how he’s coming off the bench and that run can disappear real quick if things aren’t going well. But when he’s been out there, dude’s performed for sure.
Like Leaf, if both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are out then Goga Bitadze (FD 5300 DK 4000) becomes interesting. He started at center last game but was a total foul box.
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