Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 11/12/19An eight-game NBA slate has bunch of fantasy intrigue, some injury situations to monitor and a couple of buy-low spots on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Point GuardMalcolm Brogdon FD - $8700 DK - $7600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.48 DK - 48
The Pacers have been brutalized by injuries this season but it’s only meant fantasy upticks across the board for Brogdon who’s looking very much like a player the Bucks wouldn’t mind having back. Even struggling from the field in two of his last three games, Brogdon is putting up about 21 points per game along with nine assists and five rebounds. Getting Sabonis back in the lineup helps the two-man game and his minutes floor is as high as any point guard in the game (not named Lillard). Point guard is full of question marks leading into Tuesday’s action so we’ll need to wade through some of the news leading into lock. But Brogdon looks very much like a DraftKings play at sub-$8K even in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Thunder.
Cory Joseph FD - $3700 DK - $3700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.49 DK - 29.35
It was announced on Monday that De'Aaron Fox would miss significant time due to injury and that means we’ll likely get a ton of (very chalky) minutes out of Cory Joseph here on Tuesday. He’s never been a dynamic fantasy guy dating back to even his time in Indiana, but this is too good an opportunity to pass up. I’m assuming he draws the start over Yogi Ferrell of course, but either way I think CoJo is the play here on Monday. He did come in and run more with the starters when Fox went down last game and put up nine points and four assists. As a near-minimum play here he’ll see heavy ownership against the Blazers who are allowing opposing backcourts to score at will this season.
Raul Neto FD - $5700 DK - $4800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.21 DK - 29.81
The price corrected on FanDuel so I don’t think he’s a play there, but the DraftKings salary is looking ok for cash games. He’s locked into the starting role for Ben Simmons though admittedly this is still more of an off-ball guard action that’s labeled a point guard. He’s playing around 30 minutes a game and averaging 11 points and five assists since taking over as the starter. He’s run a little hot from the field, though he’ll continue to get decent looks in this offense considering the firepower around him, though the usage will remain low. Again, not a FD play, but DK he’s in range.
Jamal Murray (FD $7200 DK $6300) had some ankle issues last game, but did return. Keep an eye on this situation.
Shooting GuardBuddy Hield FD - $7000 DK - $6600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.09 DK - 37.33
Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $5600 DK - $5400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.59 DK - 32.1
I don’t really know what it’s going to take for these two guys to start playing big-time, consistent minutes for the Kings but the De’Aaron Fox injury does seem like the perfect opportunity, right? Right? Both see a usage uptick with Fox off the court, with Bogdan actually playing the most minutes on the team over the last two seasons with Fox out. Hield’s scoring is a bit down this season though he’s still knocking threes down at a 40% clip on almost nine attempts per game. We could start to see more volume scoring and even ball-handling from him in the short term. I really like him as a mid-tier cash play.
Meanwhile Bogdan has played around 30 minutes off the bench in each of the last two, put up 20+ points each time on 11-17 shooting from beyond the arc. Stacking both of these dudes in cash on the realistic projection of more shots to go around does seem like a high floor play even if Bogdan was still coming off the bench.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8400 DK - $7900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 45.94 DK - 46.4
The Jazz are on a back-to-back following a win over Golden State on Monday, but the blowout did allow them to shave a few minutes off the starters near the end of the game. Mitchell will a chance to torch a Nets team that's been basically killed by opposing guards this season. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency and 4th in pace. That's a nice recipe for DFS success again for sure. Mitchell is still a volume scorer ticking up his points per game this year on the back of an extra minute and 43% three-point shooting. This is a smash spot for the Jazz in general but especiall Mitchell.
Small ForwardChandler Hutchison FD - $3600 DK - $4000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.14 DK - 22.93
Hutchison drew the start for Otto Porter last game in what turned out to be a blowout loss to the Rockets. But he was productive in his time on the court, putting up 13 points and four rebounds along with four blocks+steals in just 23 minutes. In a game that should stay much closer against the Knicks, Hutchison is a solid punt play at a wasteland position on FanDuel. I think the DraftKings price is more than in play as well and we should only see a minutes increase if the game stays closer.
Marcus Morris FD - $6300 DK - $6300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.9 DK - 37.95
The Knicks are a total mess of course, but so is this position so we have to play with the cards we’re dealt. Morris has been one of the few *steady* rotation guys in the New York sinking ship and averaging almost 16 shots per game over the last five. He has a 23 point, seven rebound line in that time on 36 minutes. It’s not where you want to be if you’re a team actually trying to win games, but that isn’t so much our concern here. We are interested in the opportunity, and Morris continues to get it. There could be a shakeup from Coach Fizdale considering some of the heat that’s come down on him in the short-term but Morris’s minutes should still be there.
If Jamal Murray were to sit, Will Barton (FD $6600 DK $6000) would make an interesting option. The latter’s usage goes up with the former off the court.
If enough punt plays show up on this slate, and they could, then LeBron James (FD $11500 DK $10500) would be the play. He’s already basically there for DraftKings at this price.
Power ForwardDomantas Sabonis FD - $9500 DK - $8400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 50.47 DK - 52.69
Sabonis is getting expensive, but there are few bigs with reliable minutes at the moment. He’s played 36 or more in five of his last six games and is averaging a 17 point, 16 rebound, six assist line since Myles Turner went down with the ankle injury against the Nets. This isn’t the best matchup against the Thunder who play at one of the slower paces in the league, but he might be up against Nerlens Noel which would bolster some of the underlying projections. I like the DraftKings’ price a bit more than FanDuel but the latter makes things tough at this position with some of the available options.
Many Other Thoughts
If Steven Adams sits again then Nerlens Noel (FD 5100 DK 5000) would be the rather obvious play at PF of PF/C on DraftKings. He played 30 minutes in the spot start on Sunday and popped in 14 points, six assists and three rebounds against the Bucks. Playing further from the basket because of the Milwaukee scheme led to the lower board total. This would still be a rather easy play if he was in the starting lineup again.
Taj Gibson (FD 4200 DK 4200) could still be in the starting lineup for Mitchell Robinson on Tuesday. The former was brutal in the role last game so it’s not totally clear if the Knicks stick with that strategy. If he was there again against Chicago then I think the dice roll is fine on the cheap.
Jabari Parker (FD 7200 DK 7300) is playing a ton for the Hawks. He’s also been fantastic from a fantasy perspective. The price is up, but he’s contributing enough to hit value here. That being said, Denver is a tough matchup.
And finally, if you want to try to catch the Paul Millsap (FD 6000 DK 4900) falling knife I don’t blame you.
CenterNikola Jokic FD - $9000 DK - $8300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 51.45 DK - 52.96
One reason to possibly fade the Lakers’ big-two (more so Anthony Davis) is because Jokic is coming so damn cheap these days. It’s somewhat understandable considering his stats are down across the board this season. He’s doing everything less despite playing the same minutes as last year. The conditioning has been called into question, which could be part of it, but this looks every bit like a buy-low spot for the dude. Even with Atlanta playing better against opposing centers this season, Joker price is simply too low. The 24% shooting from beyond the arc is way down from his career 34% average and Alex Len could have real problems with him here. I’ll take the price dip and call it a day on Jokic for both sites.
Joel Embiid FD - $10800 DK - $9400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 55.13 DK - 56.11
Embiid is the other reason we might not need to go nuts on the Lakers’ guys. The only concern I have is the Sixers managing his minutes whenever they get the opportunity. He played only 26 in what amounted to a closer game against the Hornets on Sunday. That was with the rest of the starters closing it out sans-Embiid. He was still solid in his 26 minutes, putting up 18 points, nine rebounds and four blocks+steals. When the minutes are there, few are better. But Philly could have the training wheels on his minutes and that’s an issue with them playing a pretty bad Cleveland team.
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