Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 11/26/19What a weird slate. It’s a two-gamer that starts at 8:30 EST before we have a massive Wednesday slate leading into Thanksgiving. That means the pickings are going to be awfully slim here and there will be some Clippers’ news that will almost definitely effect rosters.
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Point GuardJamal Murray FD - $7200 DK - $7400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.41 DK - 38.28
Murray looks very much like close to a lock oaths short slate against a Washington team ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and playing a super fast pace. Murray is a score-first point guard but has been shooting with crazy volume over the short term, averaging close to 20 shots over the last four games with two of them seeing double-digit three-point attempts. He should be chucking from the rafters in this one as well and at these prices is a play on both sites.
Luka Doncic FD - $12100 DK - $11400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 62.38 DK - 66.73
It’s a super short slate and Luka is the most expensive player going, but for good (great) reason. He’s been un-freaking-believable in his second season averaging 31 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds over his first 16 games. It’s really something to behold from the 20 year old and he’s entered the discussion as one of the best overall players in the game right now. The only issue we are dealing with on this slate is his price. He’s incredibly expensive and considering the limited player pool, if no real punt options open up then it might be hard to fit the number with any kind of balance in the lineup. But it could also look like a tough fade. In the end, I think we get there on Doncic in lineups, but it might be close.
If the Clippers end up resting folks on the front end of the back-to-back then Patrick Beverley (FD $5600 DK $4700) could look like a nice price option at point guard. This will be a theme of this article, namely, what the Clippers are going to do.
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Shooting GuardGary Harris FD - $4500 DK - $4200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 23.29 DK - 23.29
Harris isn’t really much a part of the Denver offense at this point and his price for sure reflects the dropping usage. He’s still playing plenty of minutes in close games, but is called on primarily for his defense (which he’s awesome at btw) and that’s meant single digit shot attempts in each of the last five games. He’s basically ringing in now as a minutes’ upside punt play who you hope knocks down a couple of threes and adds in a steal or two. But at a tougher position, I think you can take the risk on the floor considering his low price on both sites.
If the Clippers don’t sit anyone then this position, on FanDuel at least, is going to approach trainwreck territory. So let’s walk through the options: If Kawhi Leonard OR Paul George sit then I think Lou Williams (FD $7200 DK $6300) would instantly become the clear option at the position considering he’d see a moderate (or more) bump in usage. His price has even come down some with the Clippers playing at full strength of late. Terance Mann (FD $3500 DK $3000) could also step into the starting role and would make for a punt play option as well if the Clippers sit one of the their big two.
If it doesn’t play out this way then you’ll have to consider Bradley Beal (FD $9700 DK $9300) but this is a tough pull because Denver is a terrible DFS matchup and Beal is very expensive. The middle ground might be someone like Jordan McRae (FD $3700 DK $3600) who’s playing some minutes off the bench and been able to score some for the Wizards.
Small ForwardTim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.93 DK - 24.46
Dorian Finney-Smith FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22 DK - 22.09
Look, it’s very tough to trust the Mavericks’ minutes on a night-to-night basis from anyone except Luka and to a slightly lesser degree Kristaps Porzingis. That being said, they are coming off a game having run Hardaway Jr. a crazy 38 minutes and he took the second-most shots on the team (18) finishing with 31 points on 5-11 from three. Do I totally trust the usage and run? Of course not. But if you think you are still only buying one day late on the opportunity then the price is right.
Meanwhile, Finney-Smith should be good for around 32-33 minutes in close games and they’ll need his defense on the wing to cover some of what the Clippers will throw out there. From an opportunity perspective, Finney-Smith is “safer” than THJ, but there’s also significantly less upside on the fantasy production. He’s a low usage, defense-first play who you’ll hope scraped into double-digits on the scoring front.
Will Barton FD - $6700 DK - $6100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.2 DK - 32.73
Barton is shooting lights out this season, hitting 46% of his threes this season on more than four attempts per game. I’m not sure that’s entirely sustainable considering it’s a full 10% higher than his career average, but he continues to see good looks because of the Nuggets’ system and Jokic’s ability to find open shooters. Like I said with the other Denver guys, the Nuggets get the best matchup on the slate against the Wizards and it’s going to make sense to stack them in cash. You can’t play five and Barton could be an odd man out if the Dallas guys above fit the price and value piece a little bit better. But this is still a great play.
Look, if one of them sits then the other of the Kawhi Leonard (FD $10200 DK $8800) / Paul George (FD $9500 DK $8200) duo probably becomes the chalk play on the slate and for good reason. (Kawhi is a PF on FanDuel fwiw)This is another wait-and-see thing, but just know that if the news comes that one is resting on the front end of the back-to-back then the other you need to lock and load.
Maurice Harkless (FD $3800 DK $3500) would also fit in as a punt play if starting because the Clippers sat someone.
Power ForwardPaul Millsap FD - $6600 DK - $5400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.58 DK - 32.46
I know it isn’t fun to roster this guy in DFS. You can’t trust much, if anything, of his game when it comes to fantasy production. The minutes come and go as much as anyone in the game and even when he’s one the court a ton you can wonder what he’s even doing out there. But that’s also the thing that keeps his price in check and he’s coming pretty cheap on both sites. Like I said, if Kawhi doesn’t play here you are very short on acceptable power forward options. Millsap becomes almost a must play just from that standpoint point alone.
JaMychal Green (FD $3800 DK $3400) is an option if the Clippers are playing shorthanded. And honestly, folks might play him regardless.
Maxi Kleber is questionable for the game against the Clippers. Kristaps Porzingis (FD $8500 DK $6900) might be the play though he’s a little overpriced on FanDuel where we need to roster two of these dudes. He’s a better bargain on DraftKings.
CenterThomas Bryant FD - $6800 DK - $5800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 35.61 DK - 36.9
This isn’t a great spot obviously, having to run up against Jokic. But Bryant isn’t all that expensive and does have a fair amount of fantasy upside if things are going all right. He’s a double digit scorer almost on lock every night and there is upside on the rebounds if things break right. The fouls put him at risk of losing time in this matchup, but that’s built somewhat into his price. Again, on a short slate we have to make some concessions around safety and floor. Bryant is an example of that.
Nikola Jokic (FD $10800 DK $9800) might be the one Nugget player I leave on the cutting room floor.
Dwight Powell (FD $4600 DK $4000) would be the almost definitive play if Maxi Kleber were to sit.
If the Clippers are without Kawhi then Montrezl Harrell (FD $7600 DK $6700) becomes something of a chalk play.
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