Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) goes up to shoots while defended by Charlotte Hornets center Willie Hernangomez (9) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Karen Pulfer Focht)
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Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 53.19 DK - 54.37
I think Ja Morant is a tough fade here on this slate with the Grizzlies now clearly comfortable running him major minutes in these playoff games. He played 41 in Game 3 and finished with a triple-double, scoring 18 points and adding 10 rebounds and assists each. Sure, he struggled from the field going 5-18 but more than made up for it in other areas. Heck, he even added three steals and a block. The Grizzlies have the highest implied win total for a reason considering Minnesota’s defensive deficiencies. I like the price on both sites.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 53.7 DK - 57.38
The usage rate for Harden hasn’t been all that robust this series, though that could be set to change some moving forward. The Sixers released news that Joel Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb, an injury that he’ll try to play through for the rest of the playoffs. So far, for this series, Harden is averaging 18 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds in about 40 minutes per game. He fouled out in OT last game. He’s shooting 41% from the field and 44% from three with the only real issue being the shot volume. But if Embiid is going to play hurt, we could be getting Harden at a total bargain here on both sites.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 29.77 DK - 29.76
Danny Green played a million minutes last game and it was just enough to get him to value at these prices. With Matisse Thybulle still ineligible to play games in Toronto, it stands to reason we see max run out of Green again. In Game 3, he went for nine points, seven rebounds, and two steals. Again, just enough to get by at these price points. And on these playoff slates, any cheap play is needed in order to fit in the superstars. I’m fine going back to Green’s particular form of cardio when it comes to fantasy.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.37 DK - 35.33
Conley got the minutes up to 35 in Game 3 of the series and from a fantasy perspective was more than effective on these prices. He ended up with 21 points, six assists, with a couple of rebounds and steals as well. It was a brutal loss for the Jazz who really needed to make hay while Luka Doncic was sidelined. But they weren’t able to. I do think Conley is still very much a value here on both sites, but especially DraftKings. And the minutes should be on the higher side once again for the veteran guard.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 32.72
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 32.6 DK - 32.96
It’s been a bit tough to get the handle on the secondary players for Memphis after Ja Morant, but both of these guys are still coming as values on this slate. Bane was fantastic in Game 3, helping to be part of the epic comeback and ultimate win for the Grizz. He caught fire and ended up going 7-15 from three and finished with 26 points in all. It was a massive win for the second-year guard and the minutes should be there again as long as the game is close. Memphis still would love to put this series at 3-1 heading back home and one would have to think they will have their foot on the gas once again.
And then there is Brooks who played 37 minutes, but struggled from the field, going 4-14 and 1-6 from three. He’s struggled with his shooting over the last two and that could be cause for concern. But I’m not worried about it at all and he’s just coming way, way too cheap on FanDuel to think about fading. At under $5K, and playing close to 40 minutes, I don’t see why we would avoid this guy at all. I suspect he’s, once again, one of the most popular plays on the slate. And it’s for good reason.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 40.22 DK - 41.05
Harris is another Sixer who could see an increased role if Embiid is going to struggle with the thumb injury. He played 47 minutes (42 in regulation) last game and came away with 11 points and 12 rebounds. The scoring is tough to come by when sharing the court with Embiid, Harden, and Maxey, but in close games, the minutes feel super safe at this point. He’s a deal on both sites if he’s going to play 80%+ of the game and should be able to do enough across the box score to hit value.
When it comes to Joel Embiid (FD $10500 DK $10600), we are in a tricky spot here. Obviously, the thumb is injured, and it could be bad. But the team is going to have him play through it and the Raptors have struggled to defend him at all in this series.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.85 DK - 47.24
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.61 DK - 34.01
The Raptors are on death’s doorstep here which could mean something close to 48 minutes each out of these two as long as the game is even moderately close. That was almost the case in Game 3 with both of them playing well over 40 minutes in regulation on the loss. Siakam ran 48 total though struggled from the field when it was all said and done. For the series though he’s been fine enough, averaging 19 points, six assists, and five rebounds. I really do think he’s set to play the whole game in this one with Toronto looking to stave off elimination if at all possible.
And then there is Anunoby who was damn good in Game 3, scoring 26 points on 8-18 shooting and putting up the second-most shots on the team. He also added five points and four assists. The price is such that he can still help to soften some of the salary concerns around the rest of the lineup and the minutes should be through the roof once again. It’s weird to play a team that’s on the verge of getting swept, but I think Toronto has some fight in them here.
I’m still ok going back to Rudy Gobert (FD $7300 DK $7400) in cash games even with Luka returning. But acknowledge that the playoff stuff gets weird with this guy.
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