(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 26.83 DK - 26.83
Any concern about Josh Allen’s fantasy upside over the last few games was erased in Week 15 when the dude went nuclear once again. Playing the Dolphins on Saturday night, Allen threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns while also adding another 77 yards on the ground. It was a clutch performance in the win against the Dolphins. This week he gets the Bears who rank 31st in defensive DVOA on the season and are equally bad against both the run and the pass. Buffalo has clinched a playoff spot, but they are still in the hunt for a first-round bye so it’s likely they will keep the foot on the gas for the rest of the regular season.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 26.23 DK - 26.23
As we suggested last week, it’s going to pay to spend up at quarterback on this main slate of games. With Jalen Hurts on the shelf, that leaves us with Allen and Patrick Mahomes to decide between. Mahomes trails Hurts by just a couple of decimal points in DraftKings scoring this season and has thrown for 320+ yards in eight of the last nine games. Seattle is a bottom-third defense on the season and the 48.5 total is the highest over/under on the slate. I suspect Mahomes, coming a bit cheaper than Allen, will have a lot of ownership here and it’s for good reason.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 25.14 DK - 28.58
At this point in the season, it’s going to make the most sense to target the superstar situations which are most clear in terms of opportunity. That’s for sure the case for Christian McCaffrey who, without Deebo Samuel, is the workhorse in every sense of the word for San Francisco. He’s coming off a week playing 89% of the snaps and touching the ball a whopping 34 times (26 carries, 8 targets) while racking up 138 total yards and a touchdown. Few other running backs are going to see anywhere close to this usage on a week-to-week basis. The 49ers are playing for seeding here and with Jalen Hurts out for Philly could even back into a first-round bye if things break right.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 15.89 DK - 18.61
McKinnon is in an interesting situation here because he’s in a timeshare with Isiah Pacheco who will clearly get the carries for KC if the game is in hand and the Chiefs are grinding down the clock. But McKinnon is also coming off weeks that saw him touch the ball 18 and 15 times respectively. That he’s 17 targets combined over the last two games is also a great sign and the Chiefs clearly want to use him in the pass game. That puts the DraftKings price specifically in play considering it's full point PPR there.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 23.58 DK - 28.15
There are some alpha wide receivers going on Saturday, but Jefferson might be in the best spot of the group. The Vikings are playing in favorable conditions at home in Minnesota against a Giants team ranked 29th in defensive DVOA on the season. Even after leaving the game with a minor injury in Week 15, Jefferson still managed 16 targets in the historical comeback against the Colts and finished with 123 yards and a touchdown.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.79 DK - 18.37
We put out JuJu Smith-Schuster as a core play last week because the targets seemed to be trending in the right direction in the Chiefs’ offense while the price was slow to catch up. Really, the same can be said for this week again. He is coming off a 10 target game that saw him go 10 catches for 88 yards. That was good for a 25% target share which is about as perfect as you can get for a WR in the KC offense. The DraftKings price remains way too low for this kind of opportunity. He has an outside chance to top 2,000 receiving yards on the season if he can average 126 per game over the last three. That’s definitely in play here.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 11.49 DK - 14.01
Burks is a couple of weeks removed from a very scary hit that knocked him out and had him in concussion protocols over the last games. (It’s even more insane that he held onto the ball for the touchdown on that catch.) Before that he had seen 6, 8, and 6 targets in the three previous games, becoming the primary passing option in this Titans’ offense. That should be the case this week with the rookie WR a full go in practice leading into the game against the Titans. He’s coming too cheap on both sites, but especially DraftKings.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 10.43 DK - 12.62
Knox has 15 targets over the last two games and has put up 139 yards and two touchdowns in that stretch. It’s been a nice run for the tight end who’s seen his production come and go over the course of the season. But that’s to be expected from the position which can be more than a little variable on a week-to-week basis. The DraftKings price is particularly attractive here and he should be a higher floor option against a very weak Bears secondary.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 8.81 DK - 11.15
The Seahawks are going to be without Tyler Lockett this week which could open up more opportunities for Noah Fant in the passing attack. The line suggests Seattle will be playing from behind here and Fant is coming off playing 52% of the snaps last week with six targets. Getting him on the cheaper side on both sites with targets likely opening up in this offense is a great spot to grab him at a weaker position.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 8.35 DK - 8.35
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 8.91 DK - 8.91
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 8 DK - 8
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