Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3) dribbles during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 39.91 DK - 41.98
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 34.63 DK - 37.23
You can’t love the matchup here against the Miami Heat, but the Nets are already down bad in the injury department and are going to have to run the starters a lot of minutes here. Spencer Dinwiddie is doubtful along with Dennis Smith Jr while Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton are already out. It’s going to mean a lot of run for Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas in the backcourt.
Ben Simmons is already putting together solid fantasy lines even without shooting all that much. He’s averaging 8.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game to go with two blocks+steals. At his price points with the idea that he’ll play even more minutes now, I think he makes for a pretty easy buy even in a bad matchup.
And then there is Cam Thomas who has been one of the true breakout stories here to start the season. He’s averaging 33 points per game through the first three, taking 19 shots from the field and getting to the line a ton. You won’t get much in the way of other stats from him, so it’s scoring or bust. But the usage is so high it’s tough to pass him up on DraftKings especially.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.49 DK - 42.68
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 36.28 DK - 40.12
The Rockets are 0-3 and you have to think they are going to go all out here against the Hornets to try and get that first W of the season. The starters, in close games at least, are locked into high minutes and that’s what we should see out of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green in this game.
FVV has been inefficient from the field, starting the season shooting only 37% and barely getting to the line. He had a great game against the Spurs and two other duds along the way. I think this is a bounce-back/ get right spot for him considering Charlotte is a below-average team playing the second-fastest pace in the league.
Meanwhile, Jalen Green has taken 20 shots in each of the last two games (one of them went to OT) and he’s had his own struggles from the field as well. Something of a theme for Houston so far. But the matchup should dictate easier looks at a higher volume and you have to like that considering his price points.
Consider Davion Mitchell (FD 4700 DK 4800) who will draw the start for the injured De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk (FD 5000 DK 5700) who should see more run as well.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 40.55 DK - 42.94
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.04 DK - 30.82
Mikal Bridges and Dorian Finney-Smith follow much of the same logic from the Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas write-ups. Mainly, the Nets are super thin right now really across the board, and are likely to lean into the guys who they know can get the job done. That should mean a ton of minutes for these two.
Bridges played 38 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday, going 10-13 from the field and finishing with a solid 24 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. The five turnovers were a bit of an issue, but by and large, that hasn’t been a big problem in his game in the past. Like Cam Thomas, Bridges is going to rely on the usage to get him there at these prices, but expect a lot of run again.
Meanwhile, Dorian Finney-Smith has effectively been starting at center for the injured Nic Claxton and that looks like it will be the case again on Wednesday. He’s coming off a game that saw him score 19 points on 7-12 shooting and he’s found his stroke from beyond the arc to start this season. There could just be so many minutes for DFS here that the floor should be high enough even without running hot from beyond the arc.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 45.94 DK - 49.62
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.51 DK - 33.91
The Clippers are on the back-to-back here so it’s a bit up in the air about what they will do with their lineup. And following the trade for James Harden, the roster is a bit thin as everything gets sorted out. It could mean we see a bunch of minutes for Paul George even on the b2b as well as Norman Powell who could draw the start if Kawhi Leonard were to sit here with load management concerns.
Again, this is a bit speculative and the game against the Lakers is a national game and high profile. It’s been made clear that the league doesn’t want players resting in these specific matchups, but this is also Kawhi and the Clippers we are talking about. The timing of the game could also make things tricky because it’s so many hours after lineup lock so we will have to monitor this situation.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 51.78 DK - 52.61
Anthony Davis is off to a monster start this season, averaging 25.8 points and 13.8 rebounds through the first four. Oh, and he’s also putting up 4.3 blocks+steals as well. It’s been awesome and the production isn’t likely to slow down here with the way the Lakers are using him. The DraftKings price is close to a joke at these production levels and I think we can run him out there without hesitation against an undermanned Clippers team.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 34.54 DK - 36.74
Jabari Smith Jr. is still coming way too cheap on FanDuel and is likely to see a bunch of ownership there even on a bigger slate. Like his Rockets teammates, dude is also struggling with the shot, going just 22% from three to start the season and 38% from the field. But the minutes should be there in close games and I’m not worried about him finding the range as the season goes on. Let’s take advantage of the pricing issues because of the shooting run bad and not worry about this play all that much.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.93 DK - 48.19
The Pelicans could be without Brandon Ingram again in this game and I do think we are getting Zion Williamson at a discount on FanDuel especially. His minutes haven’t ticked all the way up yet, but I do think there’s a little bit of context in there, especially because they were blown out on Monday by the Warriors.
He was trending towards playing 33-34 in that one. Zion is scoring they way you would generally want even if the rebounding is down some. Zero blocks to start the season doesn’t seem like it will sustain either and we are buying low here.
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