Oh what a day. What a day indeed. Today is a monster in the DFS industry with a number of big tournaments going down including the 150K Big Score on DraftStreet. FanDuel has a number of big tournaments as well. After all, there are twelve games and the NBA's biggest stars all hitting the hardwood. MisterMarch and I tag teamed these picks today because there are just so many considerations. Also, check back later in the day as we update injury news and lineup considerations. We tried to tier each position by dollar amounts to give a variety of plays. These players all fell within a certain range in our system meaning they are fairly interchangeable, but we'll point out when someone's a top value. Let's do this thing.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.
John Wall FD $9,200 DS $17,411-
Wall's been playing at such a high level and is so freaking consistent that he makes a quality double up play if you can stomach his price. I'd be hesitant to start him in a tournament on FD, but not on DraftStreet where he can easily exceed this price with a full line. The Spurs have been allowing 12% more than league average scoring against point guards recently. Look for Wall to take advantage.
Brandon Jennings FD $7,400 DS $14,625-
Jennings is one of the top values at point guard today. I love his upside against an overmatched Orlando team. Jennings of course can make you want to commit a violent act against an innocent person because he can just be dreadful during long stretches of games, but on a big night his midrange price is right what I want to see entering my lineup.
Kyrie Irving FD $8,400 DS $15,056-
Speaking of someone making me want to commit a crime, or jump off a tall building, Kyrie's got that maddening piece of his game that keeps you coming back from more. Like Jennings, he puts it on in spurts, getting your hopes up for a half before the Cavs self-destruct and he doesn't pay. That's my experience with him at least. But oh, he gets the now-very-old-and-slow Laker backcourt with Nash and Blake plodding around. If ever Irving was going to put it together into a monster, this is the one.
Rajon Rondo FD $6,300 DS 12,452-
Plain and simple, he gets to play Philadelphia. I feel like if I was back running point for my U11 CYO team I'd be heavy play in the 6K range against the Sixers. That's how bad they are against, well, everyone. Rondo is no sure thing, but on a night with so many guys going, he might be off some radars. He was a stud last game and I've heard no talk of a minutes restriction leading into this one.
Jeremy Lin FD $5,600 DS $12,239-
Lin has been playing huge minutes in backcourt pairings with Beverly. And he's reaching Linsanity type production. I don't know if it will continue, but if you're looking for crazy upside at mid-tier prices he's your man. His PT has come at the expense of Chandler Parsons, but expect to see Lin with plenty of run tonight.
Nick Calathes FD $4,600 DS $8,710-
Price has climbed a bit, but not a ton. He's getting starter minutes with Conley out and Dallas is about league average against point guards. He is only a game removed from a 22/5/3 game so the upside is there.
Jarrett Jack FD $3,500 DS 6,362-
Starting at SG for the Cavs right now because Dion Waiters and CJ Miles are just, well, fucking horrible and inconsistent and quasi-disasters. Jack should retain his role at SG and should see plenty of minutes against the Lakers. It feels weird to think about putting a SG into the PG position on FD, but at a minimum price I think you can do it.
Ty Lawson DS 15,720-
Fantastic price on DS tonight and someone to strongly consider in every type of game. He basically pays this salary every single night.
Patrick Beverly DS 9,031-
This play has a ton of upside. He plays more than 30 minutes a night and does enough in the box score to limit his basement. He's shown too flashes of big games so keep him in mind if you're looking to hit a homerun in a tournament.
DeMar Derozan FD $8,600 DS $14,745-
Man I love Derozan tonight. Who is going to guard him on the Kings who struggle in every phase of the game against shooting guards? He might take 25 shots. Slot him in as a safe play with a bit of upside.
Dwyane Wade FD $7,300 DS $12,923-
This price on DS is almost criminal if Wade is going to play (never a sure thing). This game against the Clips should be up and down and LA will have trouble staying with/ guarding Wade. SGs are always a little iffy on DS because you can usually slot more consistent PGs in for similar prices, but there's an exception to be made with Wade.
Randy Foye FD $6,200 DS 11,894-
Playing just oodles* of minutes right now. Over forty minutes a night in games that aren't going into OT is staggering. Just the volume alone makes him a value at these prices. Combine that with Milwaukee getting blitzed by opposing SGs and you've got a nice meeting point on the Minutes/Opponents Suck graph.
*industry term
Danny Green FD $3,500 DS 7,235-
Back from injury and looking a hell of lot better than he did earlier in the year. For me, absence has made the heart grow fonder and Green could help you win a tournament with the right kind of shooting night. He played thirty minutes right out of the gate which is a great sign and the Spurs are banged up at the position right now which lessens the likelihood of him getting Pop'd.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD $4,000 DS 7,808-
Alphabet has a great opportunity tonight with OJ Mayo out and the Bucks being a general nuclear wasteland of epic proportions who have trouble doing even simple things correct on the basketball court. And I know they beat the Knicks the other night, but the Knicks are their own kind of problem. Giannis can fill up the stat sheet and should be able to contend with the small ball style of the Nuggets. This is another tournament upside play.
James Anderson FD $4,400 DS 8,454-
One more low tier value who, on the right night, can get hot and pay this going away.
For my money, I think I'm spending at power forward today. I don't think I'll be playing too much of Lebron and almost assuredly no Durant.
Luol Deng FD $6,500 DS $12,036-
Deng has finally found his role in the Cleveland offense, and he gets an off-the-wall incredible matchup against the Lakers who are now officially missing every player on their team that could be a rotation player on any other team (all estimations approximate). With the minutes he's playing, the safety is assured - and with his recent performance, the upside is tremendous.
Jeff Green FD $6,100 DS $9,261-
It's tough to say a guy underwhelmed when he pays 4.7x his FanDuel price, but Green was poised for a much bigger night against the sixers if he didn't have some random shooting woes. The Sixers play so fast, and play such little defense, that the increased possessions will make Green a HUGE start tomorrow. If you think you hear bad Jeff Green's music, fading him will leave you in the minority.
JR Smith FD $5,500 DS $10,697-
Smith didn't seem to be affected by Shumpert's return to the lineup, shooting his heart out against the Bucks in 39 minutes of play. If he's playing minutes like these, and there's no reason to believe he'll stop, Smith remains one of the safer plays possible on FanDuel simply due to shot volume. The minutes could, in theory, become reduced... but on a $5,500 price tag it's tough to imagine a scenario where you're not pleased you got him in there.
Gerald Wallace FD $4,000 DS $7,428-
Wallace is likeable here for all the same reasons Green is. Stevens said he'll be back in the lineup after missing a game due to personal reasons, and his hustle stats will be boosted by the inevitable increase in possessions. He remains a super cheap option at a wretched position.
Khris Middleton FD $4,400 DS $8,250-
Middleton has been playing more consistent minutes recently in Henson's absence, and while coach Drew can still drive you crazy with his inept coaching, Middleton remains a nice cheap option. I prefer everyone above him on this list, but if it's a matter of making the money work or trying to find separation from the huge fields going tomorrow, Middleton could make a nice play.
Spend Big here
Blake Griffin FD $9,700 DS $18,125-
The Heat are merely average against PFs, and Blake seems to be gaining confidence each game with CP3 out. He's bounced back from his fluke no rebounds game nicely, and he could do big things against the Heat's relatively undersized front court.
Kevin Love FD $11,100 DS $22,180-
Love draws a modestly tough matchup against the Thunder, but his game isn't as hindered by a guy like Ibaka as much as someone who spends more time near the basket. I'm liking Love for safety and upside, here, as Rubio's continued refusal to shoot and Pekovic's absence is meaning more shots for everyone.
Zach Randolph FD $8,100 DS $15,707-
Z-bo has turned into one of the most consistent fantasy performers out there, and with Conley's continued absence, I'm expecting him to shoulder more of the offense as Calathes learns to get him the ball where he likes it. Z-bo is a virtual lock for 30 FPs in this game, with upside for considerably more if a few extra balls bounce in his direction and his shot is falling. His matchup against Dirk is perfect, as he tends to have more trouble against defenders who can overpower his beneath the rim game.
Kenneth Faried FD $5,600 DS $12,113-
Faried destroyed the Clippers in his last game, and seems to have finally regained his coach's trust in earnest. And if he put up 28 and 11 against Blake and Deandre.. what is he going to do to Larry Sanders and whoever else plays for the Bucks? He'll have a skill and athleticism edge regardless, and Sanders should have his hands tied with Hickson. Watch out for another dominating performance, with only a blowout making him a risky pick.
Jared Sullinger FD $5,800 DS $11,512-
Sullinger draws the most favorable big-man matchup in the game - and has already proven that he can embarrass the Sixers. If there weren't so many punts in all the other positions, I'd be incredibly tempted to get Sully in with Faried everywhere I could. I may still. I think they have upside that even eclipses some of the popular punts today.
Anthony Davis FD $10,00-
Brow has been cruising recently, even with a less than Brow-like performance against the Spurs. His matchup couldn't be more different, as he transitions to a suns team that does not have a person who can truly be called a Center remaining on it. Millsap will give it his all, but Davis will simply be too much to handle. When you're spending your money at PF today, slow the Brow into one of your locked in spots.
JJ Hickson FD $6,400 DS $12,286-
Though Milwaukee is about league average recently against opposing centers, Hickson offsets those stats by crushing recently. He's scoring and boarding like a beast and I expect it to continue tonight. There's a reason we like a lot of Nuggets tonight. That reason has Larry Drew as its coach.
DeAndre Jordan FD $7,700 DS $15,469-
Had Andre Drummond not gotten in early foul trouble against the Heat he probably would have put up a 20/20 line. Miami has real, legit trouble with opposing big men especially if those guys are strong and physical types. Those last two adjectives are what DeAndre put on his resume when he applied for the job as Clipper center.
Dwight Howard DS $15,011-
Oh man, this price is just begging you to play Dwight tonight. 15K? My goodness. The missed free throws are a problem on DS for sure and the offense is going different directions (that don't necessarily always include him) but how exactly will Phoenix handle him down low? Last time they played Howard grabbed 18 rebounds. Yup.
Larry Sanders DS $9,951 -
If the minutes are there, so is the upside. For as good as Hickson's been offensively, Denver has big time problems with opposing centers. The others team's big men are scoring 20% more than league average and assisting 30% more. The latter doesn't necessarily seem repeatable, but it does point to a team with defensive inefficiencies against centers.
Andre Drummond FD $7,800-
A top value on FanDuel tonight. If he plays the whole game against Orlando he should easily meet and exceed this price. Though the Magic are improved defensively against centers with Vucevic back, they still aren't superb. Great price on Drummond.
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