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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/13/2014
James Davis

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/13/14

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 25550
For me, Kershaw is the clear #1 among the big money pitchers today. Felix is more expensive, and he's facing a better offense. Dodger stadium is perfectly suited to Kershaw's electric stuff, and the Diamondbacks are a below-average team in terms of wOBA when they're away from their lovely home park. The only downside? They're also the 3rd hardest team in the league to strike out. I don't know if that will matter against Kershaw, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Collin McHugh FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 10500 DraftStreet 16497
This is a close one for me - but I'm going in the direction of McHugh for a couple of reasons. First of all, you're still getting incredible potential bang for your buck on these prices. No one else in the 7k range (on FD) is as capable as McHugh is of a 20 point outing. There's certainly a little risk here, but here's a brightside - the Rays are a lowly 23rd in the majors in wOBA, and Alex Cobb isn't quite the ace he looked like he might become.

Andrew Cashner FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 9500 DraftStreet 17555
Okay, so I get that I am an intense upside whore, but hear me out. Cashner has put away stuff, and the Mets not only strike out a lot, they don't really do anything well on offense (28th in the majors in wOBA, behind only Cashner's Padres). The only ding on Cashner in this game is that Bartolo Colon has actually been pretty awesome for the Mets, as well. Cashner isn't really a double-up play, but if you want some serious upside on a decent price? He's your guy. I couldn't kill you for taking Colon in this one, either. Just pick your poison.

Also considered: Lance Lynn, Matt Garza, Nathan Eovaldi

 

Catcher

Buster Posey FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6229
Posey has been pretty pedestrian recently, but what that mostly means is that you're getting him at an awesome price. The guy still owns a career near 1.000 OPS against left handed pitching, and that includes good pitchers as well as awful ones like the one he'll face in this game. Sure, De La Rosa has an artificially bad ERA due to his home park.. but that doesn't excuse the less than 2:1 K:BB ratio.

A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4572
Pierzynski is an interesting guy, because in spite of a modestly unimpressive line this year, he's actually trashed right handed pitching very well. He'll bring his 121 wRC+ against them up against Masterson, who makes his living trying to pitch around left handers while dominating righties. He won't be able to do this with Pierzynski, who should get a few nice looks at Masterson's offerings.

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8821
A perfect match-up for V-mart: Kyle Gibson doesn't have great control, and he also doesn't strike anybody out. The Tigers' bomb-squad is going to be all over Gibson in this game, and Martinez is going to have the ball in play early and often. Could be a monster day for the Tigers stack - our projection system loves basically all of them.

Also considered: Carlos Ruiz

 

First Basemen

Adam Dunn FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7098
This is a match-up like you read about for Dunn, and the exact kind of game where he makes his money. Dunn's biggest weakness - swinging and missing - is mitigated by Guthrie's complete inability to throw a pitch by anyone. He strikes out less than 4.5 guys per 9, which in case you don't know, is a joke. Dunn is still capable of putting up the biggest numbers of any first baseman in a given game, and this could be the very game where he does so.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6908
Like Pierzynski, Papi makes most of his living off of hitting right handed pitching, and Masterson has a hell of a time dealing with tough left handers. Throw in Papi's ability to crush the ball at home, and you have a lovely match-up for Ortiz today.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8442
The wild and crazy ex-Fausto Carmona will have his hands full with Rizzo, who owns a 134 wRC+ against right handed pitching this year. Citizen's Bank is a great place to hit, and Robert Hernandez is not much of a pitcher... could be a long night for Phillies fans, and a great night for Rizzo owners.

Also considered: Joey Votto, Chris Davis, Albert Pujols

 

Second Basemen

Chase Utley FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6678
Utley has simply been great this year - sporting his best wOBA in 4 years, and crushing right handers in particular (to the tune of a .381 wOBA). Jake Arrieta has been fine this year, but Philly is not an easy place to pitch, and Utley could take advantage of that short right field fence.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7112
I've been recommending Cano a lot recently, and it's been paying off. The price is still below superstar levels, and it's a particularly great spot when you consider the guy he's facing. Nick Tepesch is walking everyone this year, and Cano and the Mariners love facing even decent right handers. Could be a nice game for counting stats for Cano.

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7853
Not a whole lot to say here: Kinsler is great, and Kyle Gibson isn't. Kinsler should be in the center of a bunch of Tigers rallies, if in fact there is a God above.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4868
Zobrist is off his career levels to be sure, but he has had some bad BABIP luck this year (.23 points below career levels), and there really is still a chance McHugh turns into a pumpkin on us. I wouldn't be the farm on this one (even though our projection system would), but I don't mind Zobrist at all if you want a good separation play with decent upside.

Also considered: Jason Kipnis

 

 

Shortstops

Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6426
The relatively platoon neutral Rollins is still sitting at very affordable pricing given what he is capable of. As I wrote yesterday, he is a guy on pace for 20+ homers and 20+ steals, and he's facing a league average pitcher in a terrific home park. More upside with Rollins at short than anywhere else, at the moment.

Starlin Castro FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7242
Castro is having a nice bounce-back season, posting his highest wOBA since 2011 and hitting guys from both size of the mound. Roberto Hernandez is positively a mess, and I love Castro as part of of a Cubs stack. His price is still not quite caught up to what he's capable of, and might be at the lowest point it will be all season after he and the Cubs trash Hernandez.

Brad Miller FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4653
The price has gotten so low on Miller that you simply can't ignore the guy when Seattle is facing a weak right hander. The reason? The counting stats. Miller can still hit right handed pitching, and getting a 5 point night out of him (on FD) could absolutely be part of a GPP winning lineup.

Also considered: JJ Hardy, Everth Cabrera, Asdrubal Cabrera

 

Third Basemen

Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5823
With another home run last night, Ramirez is straight up seeing the ball right now - and he's one of those rare reverse platoon guys. He prefers righties, and Homer Bailey simply hasn't turned into the ace a lot of people though he might become.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5599
I'm going to stick with Seager against right handed pitching regardless of what park he's in. He's crushed it at home against right handers this year, and I have no reason to believe that won't continue against one Nick Tepesch.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6576
If you're an upside guy, you probably don't need to look too much further than Pedro Alvarez. His power is pretty park resistant, and it mostly comes down to him getting pitches to hit. Eovaldi can strike guys out, but he also works around the plate, which should give Pedro ample opportunity to get into one.

Also considered: Trevor Plouffe, Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos

 

Outfielders

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5341
Jackson has been spraying the ball all over the damned place recently, and now faces a guy who allows more than his fair share of spray-age. Jackson will have a ton of RBI opportunities in this game, and my guess? He takes full advantage.

Hunter Pence FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6259
Pence is a cool player for daily fantasy baseball because of his ability to put up a big game in a few different ways. His high-effort swing means a high BABIP, and also leads to a decent amount of home-run pop as well. The real kicker for this game is that Pence owns a career 135 wRC+ against left handed pitching, and like I mentioned in Posey's write-up, De La Rosa is essentially trash.

Jose Bautista FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8873
I'm sticking with Bautista against Ubaldo Jimenez. Bautista is just too patient and too capable of crushing a mistake to ignore him, especially if you decide to save money by taking one of the excellent and affordable options elsewhere today.

Yasiel Puig FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8855
Mike Trout FanDuel 5100 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9068
Interesting day to go super expensive on OF - neither Puig nor Trout is facing a pitcher of their preferred handedness, but both are facing a guy absolutely capable of serving up a mistake. If I had to pick one here, I'd go with Puig - I'm trusting Harang's bounceback more than I am trusting Chase Anderson to be anything more than a footnote in the game's history.

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6017
Hamilton grabbed a day off against Greinke, and now he'll face the erratic Garza. Garza can strike guys out, which is kind of Hamilton's Achilles heel, but on a given night there are few OF as capable as Hamilton is of just putting up a monster against right handed pitching of any stripe.

Daniel Nava FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4762
Grady Sizemore FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 3185
Nava and Sizemore had terrific games against Tomlin, and if they're out there against Masterson, you could do a heck of a lot worse than stacking these two affordable Red Sox lefties.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4697
Super affordable upside - the rest of the guys Brown bats around like hitting right handed pitching too, and a bargain-priced Brown can open up plenty of salary elsewhere.

Also conisdered: Torii Hunter, Kole Calhoun, Jay Bruce, Matt Kemp, Nate Schierholtz, Melky Cabrera, Desmond Jennings

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