Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 8 - DraftKings

DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape.

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After a 5 week hiatus it’s “back to the basics.” A common poker maxim declared after making an untimely bet. In my last article in week 8 I expressed my love for the game of poker and well, an obsessive compulsive degenerate with an addictive personality can only take on one hobby at a time. So, for the past month DFS drew a distance second.

 

It wasn’t till I received a few Tweets about my weekly posts (or lack thereof) revealing that some of my readers were missing my vast wealth of knowledge. I now realize I was missed dearly and that everyone was lost without my invaluable advice…That seems like something Matthew Berry would say, right?!

“Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.” I am quoting the late great Jimmy Valvano and he was quoting the American poet Ralph Waldo Emerson. The only incentive I get for writing my weekly articles is the satisfaction of helping out my readers. To say the least, it’s pure enthusiasm that drives me to write. Ultimately, it was my readers (all 14 of them; this is a guestimate, it could be closer to single digits) that gave me my enthusiasm back, so fans, I say thank you!

Ok, so what in the heck do I mean when I say back to the basics? I mean for the rest of the year I am done with the lottery ticket known as the “Millionaire Maker”. My picks are for value and the fact still remains, if you find players that achieve 3.0 value then you’ve found a profitable play in all cash formats (as opposed to GPP formats).

I will be writing one article a week from here on out and I will be posting it either Friday or Saturday because “value” plays often do not reveal themselves until after the respective week of practice. I plan on being very active on the Twitter machine once my article is posted in order to provide any additional insight that may otherwise affect my picks. I have 93 followers to date. I plan on drinking 3-4 reasonably priced craft beers once I crack triple digits, so please support my drinking habits and follow me @brycemcvay.

One last shout out before we get on with the picks. It’s Jimmy V week as any sports fan would know. ESPN always airs his timeless speech during this week. Every time I hear his speech, it fills my heart with sympathy. I quoted Jimmy earlier and for that I owe him and his foundation, so I contributed a donation to the Jimmy V foundation in support of research for Cancer. Some one that can afford a hobby like daily fantasy sports, can also afford a donation to a charity of their choice. Never think of giving back as a weakness or a mistake. Take pride in knowing that you have to ability to help the people of this world.

Without further ado! My daily fantasy Week 14 DraftKings picks! Remember: Back to the basics, so it’s all about the value, baby!

 

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan DK $7,000
This is what the sports bettors call a “system pick” in the biz. The Atlanta Falcons are somehow still very much in the hunt to win their division. The game is on Monday night Primetime. The over/under is 56 points and the Falcons are 13 point underdogs. Based on these numbers, Vegas is projecting a 35-21 victory for Green Bay. This spells a shootout with Matty Ice playing from behind and being forced to pass. All signs point to Roddy White being back on the field in Week 14 and of course Julio Jones is still a top 5 weapon in the NFL. At the 7K price tag, Mr. Ryan needs 300+ yards and 2 scores to achieve value. That stat line seems closer to a floor than a ceiling.

Matthew Stafford DK $7,900
I just realized, I may have gotten back on the DFS wagon just so I can praise the basking shark. If you are new to my analogies, just think about a massive shark swimming smoothly thru the water gobbling up whatever fits in his mouth. Who on the Detroit Lions best fits this animalistic description? Oh wait, I am supposed to be talking about Matthew Stafford. Staffmaster finally has a healthy CJ back in his arsenal and boy did he use his best weapon last Thursday on Thanksgiving. Golden Tate continues to be a top five WR2 in the NFL and Lions get a great matchup in that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Finally, one last general tip for picking QB’s in DFS. Calvin is the most expensive WR this week at $9,500 and Golden Tate is $7,500 and 11^th overall based on price. Essentially, DK is admitting that the Lions have two WR1’s on their team yet Stafford comes in at 7^th overall in price and 2K less than Rodgers and Luck. This looks like a discontinuity to me and in this equation Matt Stafford is the obvious, undervalued variable.

 

Running Backs

Lamar Miller DK 4,500
Yippie! I get talk about my beloved Dolphins who take on the Baltimore Ravens at home in a conference game that is make or break for Miami’s playoff hopes. I love Lamar Miller this week and he may be my top value play of the week. No [Haloti] Ngata is No Good for the Baltimore run defense and I expect the Dolphins to test the Ravens in this aspect of the game. Ultimately, it’s the price tag of 4.5K that is the most appealing. Miller is without question the lead back for the Dolphins and will not lose any goal line carries.

For the record, Justin Forsett DK $6,900 is plenty viable and I have read a lot about how good he has looked and how bad the Dolphins run defense has been the past two weeks. I personally won’t be playing Forsett simply because I don’t want to root for him this week. That point aside, historically, the Dolphins defense and their game plans have been known to be a fantasy black hole. I am expecting them to focus on stopping the run in this one and I think the people who play Forsett may be let down at that near 7K price tag.

Jonathan Stewart DK $3,800
The epitome of “value” pick. I would never play him in a GPP format, but at 3.8K and expected to be a three down back in a game against the Saints, 3.0 value or more seems very likely. Stewart has averaged 3 receptions a game over the past three and is locked in to see at least 12-15 carries with D-Willy inactive.

Stepfan Taylor DK $3,300
I am glad Bruce Arians announced his starter instead of keeping us in the dark. Side note, I love Arians attitude and I hope he wins coach of the year for the second time in three years. From what I’ve seen this year, Taylor is the next best option with Ellington out and I am psyched he gets the nod over Marion Grice with the unadjusted price tag of 3.3K.

Clearly, the three picks above are true value picks and there is no need to play all three in the same lineup. These guys are the plays that make the studs available to you. With Forte and Murray already off the board, the only obvious RB1’s are Le’Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, and Marshawn Lynch. I really don’t like any of these guys at their respective prices. I think Bell and Foster are excellent picks especially with their matchups and would lean towards Bell simply because of injury risk to Foster. If you have the money go ahead and play one of the two but keep in mind, in order to achieve 3.0 value Bell/Foster need approximately 28 points (i.e. 150 total yards, 1 td, 4 receptions, 3 point bonus rushing bonus). I never like playing guys that need monster games just to meet 3.0 status, especially in cash formats.

 

Wide Receivers

Let me start by saying I really like the prices of the wide receivers this week and I think if possible spend your money at this position.

A.J. Green DK $8,200
A fantastic matchup at home against the Steelers who simply cannot stop the pass. This is a huge divisional game and you expect your best players to take the game into their own hands. Dalton should be locked in to his number one target. I think Green will be my number one wide receiver play of the week and will be in every one of my lineups.

Odell Beckham Jr. DK $7,700
The catch heard ‘round the world put this guy on the maps and he hasn’t looked back. He is the clear number one in this offense and has arguably the best matchup of the week against Tennessee. The same Titan team that gave up six touchdowns to…Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Randall Cobb DK $7,400 / Jordy Nelson DK $8,100
I believe both of these guys are underpriced probably because no one ever knows who’s going to get the scores in this incredible Green Bay offense and the emergence of Davante Adams isn’t helping the cloudy situation. I personally like Cobb the most because the $700 difference isn’t negligible.

Emmanual Sanders DK $7,900
42.6…28.1…24.2…24.2…26.8…13.3…These are the scores for Sanders in the DK format over the past 6 weeks. With both Thomas’ now battling injuries Sanders should shoulder the load. I also like the matchup. Buffalo leads the NFL in sacks and will present some pressure on Manning. I think Sanders benefits from this as he will be running the shorter routes under the blitz reads.

Nate Washington DK $4,600 / Stedman Bailey DK $4,300 / Pierre Garcon DK $4,000
I am not in love with any of these value WR plays but they are probable enough to achieve 3.0 value that I figured they were worth a mention. Given the circumstances, each of these guys are the number 1 WR targets for their respective offenses (Garcon, if D-Jax is out which seems likely). 6 catches and 70 yards gets all of these plays to 3.0 value and that seems better than a coin flip to happen.

 

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham DK $6,500
If I can afford him, he will be in every lineup. He put up a goose egg last week in a game where Drew Brees had 5 touchdowns. How that’s possible I’m not really sure. Graham admitted, the Steelers were under cutting his routes all game and commended Pittsburgh on their preparation. Luckily for us, DFS is a fluid game and it’s a new week with a very generous price tag for the best fantasy tight end of our generation. Remember what I said about the best players putting their teams on their back (see A.J. Green), I expect the same from Graham.

Delanie Walker $4,200
Walker is my plan B if I can’t squeeze Graham into my lineups. Walker has been hit or miss all year but with both Hunter and Wright out in week 14, the Titans will have to lean on Walker and the aforementioned Washington.

 

Defense

Houston Texans DK $3,700 / St Louis Rams DK 3,600
Both of these plays are fantastic and who will have the better game I really don’t know. Don’t be afraid to spend on these picks even though this is about the most expensive a defense can be. Sacks are huge in DK world and I expect both of these teams to have 5+ sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs DK $2,900 / Oakland Raiders DK $2,100
I haven’t solidified my lineups just yet, but I will be experimenting with the two cheaper defenses listed above. Both plays are extra “sneaky.” The Chiefs get the Cardinals who have a banged up offense who could only muster 12 points to a terrible defense in Atlanta. The Chiefs are desperate for a win and have a much more formidable front line.

The Oakland Raiders are really bad, I know. But they are playing at home against their cross-town rivals, the San Francisco 49ers. Kaepernick has been sacked more than any other QB this year, which I found shocking. Again, I don’t expect much from them but saving $1,500 can really open up options at other positions. 6 points is value for the Raiders defense which means 4 sacks and 21-27 points allowed. A forced turnover or two and they will sniff double digits.

 

Ahh it feels good to be back, boys (and girls)! Like every football player should realize, if it weren’t for the fans then there would be no million dollar contracts, and my readers are my fan equivalent. I still haven’t gotten my million dollar contract, but I really do appreciate the support. Follow me, tweet me, and let me know your thoughts, @brycemcvay. Finally, a quick dap to Doug and James, the two head honchos at dailyfantasysportsrankings.com. They too have been extremely supportive and have given me the opportunity to share my fantasy football opinion. Don’t forget, it takes ENTHUSIAM to do something great!