Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/2/15

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Point Guard

Brian Roberts - FD 4300 DK 4600 DFSTR 3100
Ahh, back to the old well of a cheap guy who was awful his last time out. For Monday's slate? I'm actually encouraged that Roberts was so bad. Why? Well, every single thing in the world had to go wrong for him to perform as he did against the Nuggets. He was 0-7 from the field. Charlotte managed to blow someone out (?!). And he still put up basically 3x on this price! Listen - Roberts is going to get mid-thirties minutes on a nightly basis with Walker out, and even in a tough match-up against Washington, you're not going to get safety like this on this price point.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10900 DK 10100 DFSTR 8700
Here's the guy you're looking at in the big money category today. Our projection system thinks Westbrook is the 3rd best points per dollar play tonight at the position - something that does NOT happen for guys with his price tag. So what's going on here? Well, Orlando allows about 7% more fantasy points to opposing point guards than league average, and I'm guessing he'll Alpha Dog it a little more than usual with Durant struggling to stay healthy. With a ton of cheap options on the board tonight, I'll be playing Westbrook heavily.

Brandon Knight - FD 7600 DK 7200 DFSTR 6700
At some point in the last month or so, Brandon Knight has become a legitimate and consistent fantasy performer. He's scored 30 fantasy points or more in 8 of his last 9 games, and sprinkled in 3 40+ point performances in there to boot. That's pretty good for a guy who's still pretty reasonably priced. Toronto, for their part, has allowed 4% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards, so this should be a fairly safe spot to grab Knight in a cash game.

Punt special: Lorenzo Brown. He was pretty damned awful against Cleveland, but the guy played ALL 48 MINUTES OF THE GAME. If Mo continues to ail, and Rubio isn't quite back yet, that's a whole heck of a lot of minutes. Even if he did score just 1 point, apparently tying Dennis Rodman's record for fewest points while playing 48 minutes. Also keep an eye out if Devin Harris is drawing the start for Rondo

Shooting Guard

Kent Bazemore - FD 3500 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
Welp, Bazemore was horrible with the starting gig on Saturday, sure making me wish I Bazed less(!!). But what are you going to do? We're looking at a guy who is going to get 30-40 minutes a game with Sefolosha and Carroll both sidelined, and that's just worth more than a minimum salary, almost regardless of who that human being tends to be. He did pay 7x this price against a good Portland team, and then was terrible against the horrendous Sixers. I still say he's the safest points per dollar guy on the board at the position.

Eric Gordon - FD 5700 DK 6200 DFSTR 4600
Kyle Korver - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 4700
If you're looking for guys in the mid tier price range, these are my two selections for the night. I expect New Orleans to be able to stay in this one, giving both of them the upper end of their point potential, and the fact that they'll be covering one another on the other end only sweetens the deal. If you're still scrubbing the taste of Bazemore's 10 pt performance out of your mouth, stacking these two in a cash game could be the ticket.

Monta Ellis - FD 7800 DK 7500 DFSTR 7500
Sort of a GPP special, but Monta's got 3 44+ fantasy point performances in his last 5 games... to go with 2 total duds. Chances are excellent that the Mavs will completely destroy the Wolves here, but if Monta DOES in fact play the fourth quarter, he could wind up being a very secure source of high points per dollar performance on a considerable amount of salary. Minnesota has allowed 5% more scoring, rebounding, and assists than league average to opposing shooting guards.You can get Monta and Bazemore for the price of Korver and Gordon, and while the downside is real, the upside seems through the roof.

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Small Forward

Jared Dudley - FD 4500 DK 4100 DFSTR 3500
Khris Middleton - FD 5500 DK 5300 DFSTR 4400
Two Bucks atop the small forward rankings! A pox upon my house! Well, I don't know what to tell you. With Ilyasova continuing to miss time, these guys are in position for a ton of minutes. I'll take Dudley just because Middleton's price is continuing to creep up as the rest of the industry catches on to his safety, but I think it'd be tough to go wrong with either of them against the Raptors and their league average small forward defense.

Robert Covington - FD 5600 DK 5000 DFSTR 5000
It looks like Covington's role on the Sixers is pretty well secured at this point, and he's now on a run of three straight games paying around 5x on this FanDuel price. It's tempting to get spooked by the match-up with Lebron, but Cleveland has allowed a league average amount of fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. The risk here, of course, is the blowout - but 2 of the Sixers last 3 games (the ones where Covington has done great) were blowouts, so he may be more secure than you think.

Kevin Durant - FD 10900 DK 10000 DFSTR 8600
It will be very tempting to go up and grab Durant in this one. The above small forward options all have their question marks, and if Durant is really going to play 37+ minutes while the Thunder are desperately chasing the 8th seed, we may really have something here. The Magic have been essentially league average at defending the small forward position this year, but the Magic have allowed allowed 4/5 shooting to Richard Jefferson, 6/10 shooting to Jared Dudley, and 4/6 shooting to Jeff Green in their last three games. Tobias Harris has been terrible since returning from injury, begging the question as to whether he's right. There are injury questions around Durant as well, of course, but I'm not judging him too harshly based on one game with one of the league's best defenses. It might not be a bad night to spend up away from your question marks at the position.

Keep an eye on... Chandler Parsons' status. If he's out, Aminu should get his 27-29 minutes again, which he's been crushing on in his last 3 games.
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Power Forward

John Henson - FD 4700 DK 4600 DFSTR 3700
Back to back games in the starting lineup, and back to back games paying 6x or more on these piddly FanDuel prices. We're at the point where it's an opponent-independent decision with Henson. Until the price rises, he'll pretty much need to be out there as the top guy in his price range.

Zach Randolph - FD 8600 DK 8600 DFSTR 7200
We gave you Randolph for Saturday's slate, and he didn't disappoint - putting up 21/18 against the defensive wiles of Serge Ibaka. Well, just like the game with Ibaka, I love Randolph tonight. The primary reason we liked him against OKC was the fact that Z-bo's minutes are very much dependent on the game flow. He'll play more when the game is close, and less when it isn't. Well, playing in Phoenix should yield a nice close-ish game for Randolph to get his full run against Phoenix's roughly league average PF defense. I'm expecting a ton of boards to go with his usual high teens-low twenties points.

Nerlens Noel - FD 5700 DK 5200 DFSTR 5400
Want my favorite GPP gamble at the position tonight? How about Nerlens Noel? Sure, there's certainly some blow-out risk here, but the sneaky thing about this spot is how many blocks Cleveland has allowed to opposing PFs this season. They've allowed about 12% more to the position, to go with an above average allowance of points as well. Noel's minutes are looking secured around 30, and in his last 9 games he's paid 5x on this FanDuel price twice, 6x twice, 7x once, and 8x once. And he's sucked a few times. But I said we were shooting the moon, right? I'm just saying.

Also considered: The projection system is intrigued by Anthony Davis, though I like to be cautious with guys returning from injury. Still, with question swirling around the other big names (primarily blow out in OKC), Davis could wind up being the safest guy at the price if he's out there. Remember - the Pelicans are happy to play Davis extended minutes whenever he's out there, and haven't shown a propensity to rest him even when he's missed a game. They need wins, and they will likely leave him out there.

Center

Marc Gasol - FD 8200 DK 7800 DFSTR 8200
Gasol is very much like Randolph, in that his minutes are highly dependent on the opponent actually having a fighting chance. Phoenix has one! And even better for him, center is the position that the Suns defend the worst. They've allowed 5% more scoring and 6% more rebounds to opposing centers, and the increase minutes for Gasol should make him among the very most likely guys in the 8k+ range (on FanDuel) to put up a 5x performance tonight.

Tyson Chandler - FD 6700 DK 6300 DFSTR
If you're thinking about a cash game play at the center position, but can't afford Gasol, I'd take a good look at Tyson Chandler. Why? Unlike a lot of players, Chandler's 30 minutes are secure, even in blowouts (just have a looksy at his game log). When opposing teams do manage to hang, or Chandler is particularly crushing, there is upside for even more. But minutes aside - this is a FANTASTIC match-up for his skill set. Dieng is lousy at defending the pick and roll (the Wolves have allowed 7% more scoring to opposing Cs than league average), for starters. Minny has also allowed 7% more rebounds and 33% (!) more blocks to opposing big men this season. It's all shaping up to be a game where we're like to see #goodtyson.

Home run play: Timofey Mozgov. Reduced minutes in his last two, but was dominating before getting in foul trouble against the Wolves. And he still paid 4x! It's another fantastic match-up with Philly, and it could be a big performance.

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