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Course
PGA National(Champion), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Par 70 7140 Yards
This week the PGA Tour travels to Florida for the Honda Classic. It is the beginning of the Florida swing and the PGA National has hosted the event since 2007. The course is known for its famous 3 hole stretch called “the bear trap” which got its name when Jack Nicklaus redesigned the course to make it tougher than it previously was. The course is a Par 70 setup with only 2 Par 5’s and 4 Par 3’s. The wind in Florida can howl making this a very tough test as most holes are guarded by a collection of Sand Bunkers and Water. Accuracy off the tee and around the green is crucial for this event. If you are targeting golfers who don’t hit the greens regularly, you need them to be very good scramblers, especially from the sand. Here are the stats I will be concentrating on this week:
Note: With Rory’s return to the USA it puts his rice well above all other golfers this week and making him a fade for me. You can acquire the same upside for less salary and fit better golfers around him without taking risks with scrubs.
Justin Rose - $10,800 (Vegas Odds – 21/1)
It’s Rose’s first tournament on the PGA Tour since the Farmers where he had a bogey-filled first round to send him home before the weekend. There are no 2015 stats updated for Rose yet on the PGA so I looked at his 2014 stats closely as well as his 2 starts on Euro Tour in 2015. He has 2 top 13 finishes on Euro Tour so far and is hitting greens at a 75% Clip. His Scrambling is also ranked 12th on Euro Tour so far at 68%. His 2014 stats on PGA Tour are also good (Ball Striking-47th, SG:Tee to Green-4th, GIR-41st, Scrambling-31st) His course history is what really made him my top target. His last 3 starts here saw him go T4, T5, Solo 3rd. He has made 4/5 cuts here since the tournament moved to PGA National in 2007.
Brooks Koepka - $9,500 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
Brooks has not played since the Farmers a few weeks ago where he finished 41st. You may remember the dreaded 5 putt to close out Round 2. It was a real momentum crusher and left him out of contention after winning the week prior. Brooks finished 33rd here last year at his first crack at PGA National. It was his first start of 2014 as well. He has great stats that fit right in with this course.
Tier 2 is filled with a lot of guys with good stats and some great course histories. I have combined both of these aspects to find these two targets.
Graham Delaet - $8,700 (Vegas Odds – 41/1)
For the first time this year I am targeting my fellow Canadian. It’s not a bias at all as Graham has been playing really well lately, making his last 4 cuts with two top 10’s in there. He missed the cut here his first two attempts at PGA National but finished T9 here 2 years ago. His game has come a long way the last few years and he has the stats to prove it.
Wil Mackenzie - $7,200 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
A couple of factors made me place Mackenzie on my targets list. First off he has never missed a cut at this tournament since it moved to PGA National in 2007 and he finished 6th here last year. He also has the stats to fit the course.
Tier 3 is the toughest to find value in this week. There aren't many guys who share good stats and course history.
Luke Guthrie - $5,800 (Vegas Odds – 151/1)
Luke has had an up and down year so far making 3/5 cuts but I feel he will turn it around a bit this week at a place where he is obviously comfortable and enjoys playing. He has finished T24 and Solo 3rd the past 2 years at this event in his only 2 starts here.
Lucas Glover - $5,700 (Vegas Odds – 251/1)
Glover has only played this event twice in the last 5 year and has a MC and T4. The missed cut came last year when Lucas was struggling in the middle of a missed cut streak of 7 straight tournaments. Besides a MC last week Lucas made 4 straight cuts before that. He also has some nice stats so far this season.
If you are new reading my articles, Tier 4 targets are strictly to be used for Stars and Scrubs GPP lineups. The golfers in this range are risky and not usually consistent. If you fit a 1 or 2 of these guys in your lineup you really only need them to make the cut and this will allow you to stack top tiered players in your lineup.
Carl Petterson - $5,000 (Vegas Odds – 201/1)
Petterson has made his last 2 cuts at the Northern Trust and the Farmers before that. Both of which were tough setups as this week should be as well. Carl has also made the cut at this tournament 6 of 7 times since it moved to PGA National in 2007. He seems to always play well here and has some 2014 stats to back it up.
Nicholas Thompson - $5,200 (Vegas Odds – 201/1)
My final pick this week is Nicholas Thompson who has made 3/5 cuts in 2015. He has also made 4/5 cuts at this tournament since 2007 when it moved to PGA National including T33 last year and T23 the year before. Nice course history for a guy sitting at $5200. He also has stats to help back the pick.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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