FanDuel and DraftKings Picks - NBA Playoff Preview - Round 2

Instead of putting in different writeups every single night that involve shuffling around the same players, we do big posts that you can refer to as each series develops. Here we go!

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

Analysis

Two teams headed in opposite directions in the eyes of public perception. The Hawks are looking like a paper tiger, and the Wiz seem to have been playing possum. But how does that effect us during the conference semis? Well, frankly, it kinda doesn't.

What does effect us is how the minutes are being shifted around, and in the case of these two teams, that's quite a bit. The Hawks were very guarded with their team's minutes throughout the season, and have turned them loose in the playoffs. The Wiz have unleashed Gortat and Pierce for significantly more minutes, while maintaining Beal and Wall at the high totals they played during the season. So let's dive in to who you should keep your eye on.

Top Plays

Jeff Teague - FD 6400 DK 6900 DFSTR
Al Horford - FD 7400 DK 7900 DFSTR 7300
While most of the other Hawks starters have been priced out of range, Teague and Horford remain fantastic values. Teague has shown 37-39 minute upside, and in those games he scored 39 and 40 fantasy points against Brooklyn. Now, Washington is a little more stout defensively, and Teague didn't dominate them in the first game, but he won't go 4 of 14 in most games. As for Horford, you saw what he could do against the Wizards in the first round. Going small at the 4 with Pierce makes a ton of sense for their spacing and offense, but it costs them something on the boards. Enter Horford. His 17 rebounds were the most he had all season, and should help him lock in solid fantasy night after solid fantasy night.

John Wall - FD 9600 DK 9400 DFSTR 7400
That Wall had the ball in his hands virtually the entire game and managed to turn it over only twice tells you most of what you need to know about what makes him such a good pick. The Hawks simply couldn't contain him, allowing him to shoot 19 times and dish 13 assists while being very stingy with the ball. Wall is becoming a master of the slash and kick, and with three capable shooters around the perimeter for the majority of the game, Washington's offense has gone from stale to sizzling overnight.

:Also considered: Brad Beal, Paul Millsap.

Value Plays

Paul Pierce - FD 4500 DK 5400 DFSTR
Otto Porter - FD 4100 DK 4800 DFSTR
Count me among those who simply doesn't understand why the Wiz didn't play these lineups all season, but I'm happy to make the most of it now that we're here in the playoffs. Pierce has been solid (if somewhat unspectacular) playing the four, and most of his value is built into the safety that will come from the minutes he's playing. And what we saw in the first game in this series was his floor - he went just 3 of 9 from three, and could have easily had twice as many rebounds as well.

As for Porter, He's threatening a double double every time he steps on the floor, and you're getting him for $4,100 on FanDuel. That price is a joke, and I'd argue that he's the value play of the series (and perhaps the round).

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Analysis:

What could have been a series for the ages is seriously marred by the (current) absence of Mike Conley. There is some buzz that he'll play, but even if he does, he may be in something of a limited capacity. I hate what I'm hearing about him being bothered by the noise and lights. If his mind ain't right, he won't be able to keep up with Golden State anyway.

Anyway, the first game of the series saw Golden State win on the back of 50% from the field and 46% from three against the Grizzlies' much ballyhooed defense. If they can't contain the Warriors' outside game, this series might not be long for this world.

Top Plays:

Stephen Curry - FD 10200 DK 10700 DFSTR 8000
Curry didn't light it up the way many thought he would with Conley out on Sunday, but the truth of the matter is, he didn't need to. The game was never in doubt, and the Warriors characteristically let off the throttle in the second half. Now, there's no way to know that this won't happen again on Tuesday, but if Memphis comes to play, Curry will be back in the driver's seat. The thing I love about him most is that the Grizz simply aren't equipped to keep pace with both of the Warriors' backcourt, and chances are good that the friskiest of the Grizzlies' defenders (Allen & Lee) will have to stick Thompson due to the height issues. I think this could be a breakout game for the league's MVP.

Zach Randolph - FD 7100 DK 7100 DFSTR 6500
This feels like an odd recommendation, considering how generally poor Z-bo fared against Golden State this season. But I think we saw in game 1 what Randolph can do here. The issue for Golden State is that they simply don't have two bodies than can defend Memphis' twin towers. While Bogut can certainly handle whoever is thrown his way, it leaves the other Memphis big on Draymond Green. Green can defend multiple positions with the best of them, but he really isn't equipped to cover the bigger guys in the league down in the post, and that happens to be exactly who Randolph is. I think we could easily see 5x points per dollar on this FanDuel price, with upside for more.

Klay Thompson - FD 7500 DK 7600 DFSTR 6500
He didn't crush it in the first game of this series, but he's actually priced very reasonably considering he's playing 20% more minutes than he was during the regular season. And that's the thing, if Klay's going to be out there for 37-39 minutes, he just isn't going to score 18 points per game. Look for the Warriors to run sets for him a little more frequently in this one, and consider the 28.5 fantasy points he put up in game one his floor - a floor you'll absolutely accept in cash games. Not sure he's totally a GPP play, though.

Also considered: Draymond Green, Marc Gasol.

Value Plays:

Tony Allen - FD 4900 DK 5100 DFSTR
Courtney Lee - FD 4100 DK 4600 DFSTR 3800
I kinda love the Memphis back court in this one, especially if Conley is out again. Both of these guys are a near lock for 36 plus minutes, and both have put up some excellent fantasy totals so far these playoffs when given the opportunity. I'll take Allen here if only because he was so fantastic in game one against the Warriors and the final game against Portland, but Lee was coming off four straight games paying 6x points per dollar before game one's stinker. If the minutes are there again, these guys are excellent ways to save up.

Harrison Barnes - FD 4200 DK 4700 DFSTR
Barnes has jumped from 28 minutes a game to a ceiling of 36 minutes per game in the playoffs, and could play an increase role in this series as well. His game log reads a lot like Courtney Lee's when it comes to production, and while I prefer Otto Porter at these prices generally speaking, I honestly wouldn't mind playing both of them only to spend up elsewhere.

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