Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/6/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

Pitchers

Early Slate
Madison Bumgarner - FD 10200 DK 10500
It's a little odd to take Bumgarner here, because Philly really isn't a spectacular matchup. They're tough to strike out, and are just about league average in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching. But there are some guys, like Bumgarner, who can weather a so-so match-up in a not great park - especially when the opposing pitcher is just right. Severino Gonzalez qualifies. He's made it through 5.0 innings twice in his 4 starts, and gotten bounced early in the other two. Bumgarner's peripherals are stellar once again, and he's the ace he's been for a while now. Bumgarner will be a heavy favorite for a win, and he represents the best cash game play on the board.

Drew Hutchison - FD 8000 DK 7000
Hutchison's ERA is far from pretty, here, but there's actually a lot to like peripherally. His xFIP is 1.50 runs better than his ERA, and he is some bad BABIP and LOB% away from being more than respectable this year. In this game he'll be up against the Astros, who have struck out in more than a quarter of their at bats against right handed pitching (good for 2nd worst in the league) this season. Now, they haven't been awful in terms of actually hurting opposing pitching, but what you're going for in playing Hutchison is pure upside. Hutch should also be in a good position to get the win against Oberholtzer as well. I like this as a large tournament play.

Late Slate
Clayton Kershaw - FD 11700 DK 12400
It's obviously quite the hefty price, but Kershaw has above even his normal amount of upside here. First of all - I'm ignoring the high ERA for Kershaw. There are some odd bounces here and there, and the K rate is still transcendent. Jaime Garcia doesn't look like quite the pitcher he used to be, and his 2.70 ERA will bubble as soon as his mediocre/bad peripherals come calling. And St. Louis has struck out at the 8th highest rate (23%) of any team in the majors against left handed pitching this season. On a rather large slate you should be able to find some moderately priced hitting to pair with him, but it will be awfully tough to spend up this much and still have a ton of upside in large top-heavy tournaments.

Everyone else
Well, if you don't go with Kershaw, you could obviously go with Felix (who a lot will choose) or even David Price. Not me. I'll happily ride Kershaw and let others mess with the other big $ guys that our projection system thinks are a worse value. But if I'm playing in a large top-heavy tournament, there are a few different options I'll consider. I kinda think something is just wrong with Teheran, but I wouldn't mind taking a shot on him on the chance that he's telling the truth and he isn't injured. I might take Chase Anderson against the Mets as a sort of high-floor play, since they've been a bottom 5 team in wOBA against righties all year. But I probably won't hedge across the top dollar guys - it just doesn't seem worth it.

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

Catchers

Early Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3700 DK 4500
We gave you Posey in Philly yesterday, writing:
Posey's actually had an insane approach against right handers this season - his 20 BBs against 13 Ks makes me feel a little bit cross-eyed. And if you're unfamiliar with Jerome Williams' work, it might be best that you keep it that way. He's been getting soul-crushed all season (and, let's face it, all career), and this game really shouldn't be any different. Our system loves getting Posey away from his home park, where fly balls go to die. In spite of this being a righty/righty matchups, this will be one of Posey's highest upside non-Coors starts of the season.

Well, he did go ahead and homer, and his spot gets even better against Gonzalez tonight. Another easy spot to grab him and make a run for some serious upside at catcher.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2800 DK 3500
Derek Norris - FD 2900 DK 3900
It's really the same story for both of these guys - less than ideal platoon spot, but terrible opposing pitcher. Lucroy has looked decent since coming back from injury, but giving his credentials is sort of beside the point. He is facing J.R. Graham here, who had a 5.55 ERA in 2014 in AA ball. Graham's a reliever who's trying on his Dad's suit coat today, and he doesn't have the stuff to square off against the Brewers in multiple times through the lineup. As for Norris, Michael Lorenzen isn't ready for the major leagues. With more walks than strike-outs through 30 innings this year and no real track record of success in the minors, he's a ticking time bomb. Now, I don't like to recommend Norris against his platoon split normally, but this is just a case where a good park and a terrible pitcher tip the needle too far.

Late Slate
Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3300
It's a really rough slate to play a catcher, first of all. So much elite pitching, and not a lot of good catchers to begin with. I've been recommending Grandal heavily when he's against right handed pitching, but haven't been pulling the trigger against lefties, because he's simply not that great against lefties. If you can find a cheap option at C today, I might go ahead and do so. But! Grandal is still interesting to me if only because Garcia's sub-six K rate is so uninspiring. Now, he's looked a little better in his last couple of starts, but I still think the Dodgers will give him a run for his money, and Grandal remains a reasonable option.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - FD 2400 DK 3800
Salty is coming off four nice games in a row, bringing his terrible season line up from basically .000/.000/.010 to pitcher levels. But! There's hope. Even though he's striking out like a mad man, he's running .130 points off his career BABIP levels, and his season line wouldn't look awful if he weren't. Colon has some nice peripherals on the surface this season, but his pitch-to-contact stuff and tendency to stay near the plate should give Saltalamacchia a chance to do some real damage. Salty has put together a .776 OPS together against RHP for his career, so this isn't insane or anything. On a slate with lots of tough pitching, I think he represents an interesting way to escape the position with some high upside.

First base

Early Slate
Adam Lind - FD 2500 DK 4400
Here's what I wrote about Lind last night:
If, for whatever reason, you just want to wildly go against popular opinion today, grabbing Lind on the super-cheap might be up your alley. I've already detailed Gibson's woes - but Lind often makes a fine play against right handed pitching. His price is depressed because of his paltry .595 OPS against left handers, but his .895 OPS against righties is quite literally something to write home about.

Well, you know what happened. Lind went yard, and paid off his ridiculously cheap prices handsomely. This game is no different. If anything, JR Graham represents a step back from Kyle Gibson's limited pitching abilities. I love Lind here once again, especially if you spend up on pitching.

Yonder Alonso - FD 2800 DK 4000
Like Lind above - this is a black mark against Lorenzen more than praise for Alonso. That said, Alonso has been a fine little player this season. His near .900 OPS is a little bit BABIP fueled, but he is a prospect with pedigree hitting in a lousy hitters' park. He's been about .100 OPS points better against right handers over the course of his career, and hitting in Cinci should give a healthy boost to his normally somewhat limited upside.

A spendy option: Brandon Belt.

Late Slate
Pedro Alvarez - FD 3000 DK 3300
Somehow, Pedro Alvarez turned even more into Pedro Alvarez this season, putting up an OPS about .500 points better against right handed pitching than left. While Teheran is normally a tough guy to face, there's just clearly something greater going on here. I think this is a reasonable spot to get top tier upside at less than top tier prices. If Teheran's shaky command carries over into this game, we could be primed for some yard work.

Lucas Duda - FD 3700 DK 4900
Lucas Duda has really come into his own as a major league hitter this season, and as a Mets fan, I have to say I sort of can't believe it. A real life, decent hitter - on my Mets! Now, Duda still struggles with some things. He still strikes out a little too much, and some of his season's success if BABIP driven. But there's a thing about BABIP - you're going to have a high one if you're blazing line-drives the way Lucas is. He's driven 31% of his balls in play as line drives, good for 2nd in the majors among qualified batters, and is hitting the ball like a young Joey Votto. Now Duda isn't young. But still. He's crushing the ball, and Chase Anderson's sudden inability to strike anyone out should give him more chance to do so.

Second base

Early Slate
Ben Zobrist - FD 2900 DK 4200
Now's as good a time as any to disparage Joe Kelly's body of work. He hasn't dipped below a 4 xFIP at any point in his career, and is looking particularly hittable this year. While I think Zobrist's huge upside days are gone, he is still as steady as ever - walking more than he is striking out, and a run-bad BABIP away from having a better triple-slash line than last year. While Zobrist is better against lefties, it's only by about .040 OPS points, and he should be able to make up the difference on Joe Kelly's talent level.

Also considered: Neil Walker. An underrated platoon guy who is much better against righties, and he should help Alvarez test if Teheran is really less than what he was.

Late Slate
Robinson Cano - FD 2500 DK 4100
If you're paying up for Kershaw or any of the studs in the late slate, you probably owe it to yourself to keep sticking with Cano. The price is just so darn low, and if there's anything at all left in the tank, he's got to be a good (if ugly) points per dollar value for people considering other guys in this price range. Most of those guys bat 8th, or get pulled in the late innings - Cano hitting in the middle of a decent Ms lineup is simply a better play.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3400 DK 4200
If you do spend up, though, Kinsler makes for an interesting play. Another repeat from yesterday. Lest I repeat myself:

If you want a little more upside than the above guys with arguably more downside, consider Ian Kinsler! Kinsler is finally on the long ball board this week, and after another nice game on Thursday, I'm starting to wonder if we're seeing the floor of what his price will be this season. Kinsler hasn't actually run bad in terms of BABIP this season, but the dramatic ISO drop looks a little bit odd, and could potentially be because of some run-bad against left handed pitching this season. He's been about .075 OPS points better against LHP for his career, and those trends have nearly reversed this year.

But something has actually changed for tonight - he's facing a WAY worse left handed pitcher. Danks hasn't been a relevant starter in 5 years, and the Tigers will put him through the ringer. Kinsler makes a great bet to be a part of that.

Shortstop

Early Slate
Brandon Crawford - FD 3000 DK 4400
It's a little odd to stick your neck out and take Brandon Crawford against a righty, but hear me out. 6 of Crawford's 8 homers have come against right handed pitching this year, and he's actually struck out less against northpaws than their southern brethren. Of course, he's been just stinging the ball against lefties, but the .270 BABIP difference can't sustain. I know he's been a reverse platoon split guy over the course of his career, but I think Severino Gonzalez's lack of credentials should outweigh whatever afears you. It's as well as you're going to do from an upside perspective from the shortstop position, today.

Jean Segura - FD 2700 DK 4300
Segura has reached base in 8 straight, and shown considerable pop in that time as well - 5 extra base hits. Could this be the resurgence of the guy who showed flashes of being a fantasy force in 2013? To be honest, it kinda doesn't has to be. Segura's priced in such an affordable fashion, and JR Graham is so under-qualified, that he has as high a floor as possible. I think he also has a considerable ceiling to go with it, if the Brew Crew run Graham the way I think they could.

Late Slate
Brad Miller - FD 2400 DK 3500
Miller has turned into one of the more reliable options going when he's up against a right handed pitcher. And guess what, you guys?? A right hander will stare down at him tonight. I'll get into Colome's credentials a little later (spoiler alert!), but I think Miller deserves some attention. He's got an .834 OPS against right handed pitching this season, which is fine for any shortstop. But one you can get for basically minimum prices? A golden opportunity of value. I like Miller in any format.

Erick Aybar - FD 2700 DK 3900
Don't mistake this ranking of Aybar for enthusiasm over his talent at this point in his career - this is just a price an opportunity play. He still bats in front of some serious major league hitters, and he can still put the ball in play. This means he's going to get ample baserunning and run scoring opportunities, which is really all he needs to be a serviceable option at the position - especially for cash games. Making the case that much sweeter is converted reliever Adam Warren. He's managed a non-terrible ERA with basically terrible peripherals - his 5.62 K/9 and 3 BB/9 are more indicative of his true talent level. Love Aybar's floor here.
 

Third base

Early Slate
Martin Prado - FD 3000 DK 4300
Right, I get it - it's Martin Prado. He's like the nerdy friend who always tags along that no one wants to sit next to on the roller-coaster. Buuuuut, there's something about Prado that you might not know. He's got an .800 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and an .082 OPS bump against lefties for his career. Now, he's far from a transcendent upside play - but in Coors field? Anything could happen. And have I mentioned Chris Rusin? I swear, the Rockies management gets some sick kick out of throwing under-qualified lefties in Coors just to see what will happen. Rusin's not a major league pitcher. This is just cruel.

Also considered: The cheap guys - Aramis Ramirez & Lonnie Chisenhall.

Late Slate
Kyle Seager - FD 3200 DK 4300
There's no reason to pull punches - Alex Colome has really struggled in his run at the major leagues. The 26 year old right hander has a 4.39 xFIP in his 71 innings in the majors, which makes him solid below the league average starter. And Seager, for his part, is about .120 OPS points better against right handed pitching over the course of his career. The 27 year old is on pace for another mid-20s home run season, and I think he could have a fine outing against Colome here.

Also considered: Justin Turner - he'd be the top rec, except for the fact that he's actually been a reverse platoon split guy over the course of his career. Still, I can picture playing him against Garcia here.

Outfield

Early Slate
Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5300 DK 5700
He'll be a universal play in the early slate I imagine, but you can probably collect a little dead money on the people who pass. At just 25 years old, Stanton has put up a 1k OPS against left handed pitching, and that number sits above 1.2K this season. And that's against all left handers, from Clayton Kershaw on down. In this game, he'll get the very bottom of the down in Chris Rusin. All due respect to Rusin, of course. He's accomplished a lot in his young life. But if he can pitch to Giancarlo Stanton in Coors field and escape with his skull in tact, he should consider it a blessing from above.

Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4200
Bruce's best possible permutation above platoon and home/road splits is against right handed pitchers at home - where he's posted an .878 OPS with great pop. Odrisamer Despaigne has only managed 4.56 K/9 this season, to go with just over 2 walks per 9. He'll also be away from his friendly home in Petco. Lots and lots of upside for Bruce here, and Despaigne's inability to strike people out mitigates his biggest weakness. I actually like him in all formats.

Josh Reddick - FD 3100 DK 4600
Redick has turned into more than just a handsome face and a Dave Kingman-esque approach. The A's lefty slugger has walked more than he's struck out this year, and tortured right handed pitching for a all 8 of his home runs and a 1.057 OPS this season. I pointed this out earlier, but Joe Kelly should be severely overmatched here.

Also considered: An infinite number of really cheap guys - too many to list here. Grab a free three day trial to our projection system if you'd like to have a gander.

Late Slate
Rajai Davis - FD 3000 DK 4600
Davis has an .870 OPS against left handed pitching this season, but that's just gravy. He's back at his supremely elite baserunning ways this season, and will be batting atop a bone-crunching Tigers' lineup against a guy who hasn't been an effective pitcher since before I became a father (about 5 years ago, since you asked). Rajai is a high floor guy with a great ceiling due to the steals and the potential counting stats as well - I love him in all formats.

J.D. Martinez - FD 3100 DK 4500
Yoenis Cespedes - FD 3300 DK 4200
See above, but Cespedes' and Martinez's main upside come from power. If I had to choose, though, I'd grab Davis.

Alex Guerrero - FD 3000 DK 3000
Guerrero's elite, light-tower power has translated just fine this season, thank you very much. And while he's been better against right handed pitching, my suspicion is that that all regulates back toward him being a healthy standard platoon guy by season's end. That could begin with some serious assault and battery on what's left of Jaime Garcia's stuff. I like Davis' floor better, but Guerrero is easily my upside play of the day at OF for this slate.

Cameron Maybin - FD 3000 DK 3300
The once top-ten overall prospect is sort of delivering on the promise he once had, if not quite. But we don't care about all that real baseball stuff - we're into daily fantasy. And Maybin's been doing just fine on that front. He's spraying hard hit balls all over, and is on pace for a 20/20 season. Not a whole lot more you could ask for. And what's really great here is the match-up. Locke is your standard run of of the mill below average lefty with a twist - when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Don't be surprised if Maybin gets into one, here.

Also considered: Kole Calhoun, and tons of cheap guys.

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