Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/25/17

Posted by on Apr 25, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/25/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Danny Duffy FD 9700 DK 10400 Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @CHW FD - 31.31 DK - 20.61 Danny Duffy and the Royals head into U.S. Cellular Field as one of the biggest favorites on the board, albeit just -133. Duffy has been dominant for the better part of 3 years now and is definitely the real deal. The White Sox may have gone off last night, but there not good at all. They are easily one of the worst offenses in the league and end up relying on Abreu and Frazier power most nights. Duffy posted a .201 wOBA against lefties and a .325 against righties in 2016. The Royals coaches have actually said he wasn't done improving and still has more to show. The strikeouts have been there at over 10 and his upside is incredible. I don't mind him in cash games, either. While Clayton Kershaw is certainly the top option on the board, he is extremely expensive and there's aways merit towards targeting Coors Field. Duffy is safe enough for cash games and has plenty of upside in tournaments. His price is pretty fair in both spots and I expect him to be around 10-20% owned. Michael Wacha FD 7700 DK 6800 Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @STL FD - 32.67 DK - 21.43 We're at a point where the Blue Jays are just not working. Jose Bautista might just be bad and without Josh Donaldson in the lineup, the team is coming apart at the hinges. Michael Wacha may not be the same guy we thought he was after posting elite numbers in 2014, but he's a quality starter 3. He holds both sides of the plate under a .330 wOBA and does a good job of limiting big innings. The Blue Jays also move from Rogers Centre to Busch Stadium, one of the more spacious parks in the league. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have Wacha priced down. He's not a guy I'm willing to target in cash games with Kershaw on the slate, but I love him in tournaments. He will...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/25/17

Posted by on Apr 25, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/25/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   WASHINGTON NATIONALS There's no shortage of stacking options on this slate, as about half of tonight's games will be in nice hitters parks, but per usual, we're starting with the best of them all. We don't know an awful lot about Rockies starter German Marquez -- this will be his fourth career start and his first of the season -- but we know plenty about Coors Field. We also know enough about the Nationals' bats to not be too worried about a 22-year-old with little experience and modest pedigree. Washington's numbers against RHP are only slightly better than average this season, but the pure talent present in this lineup suggests they should be climbing the offensive leaderboards soon. As for Marquez, he started showing up in some Top 100 prospect lists for the first time prior to this season, and his minor league numbers are fine. But he projects as an average K guy with average-ish ground ball rates, so until he proves he can tamp down big-league offenses in his unfortunate home park, we'll be happy to stack against him. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS The only reservation here is Clayton Richard's extreme ground ball tendencies (63.6% over his last 130+ IP dating back to 2015). Obviously, that keeps the ball in the yard and limits the chances of extra base hits. So, definitely take that into consideration, but also don't forget to consider the fact that he has a career sub-6 K/9 and the Diamondbacks have some guys who crush lefties. They were a top-five offense in baseball last season in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. southpaws, and that was mostly without the services of A.J. Pollock and his career .361 wOBA and .217 ISO vs. lefties. Other noted lefty killers here include Paul Goldschmidt (career .429 wOBA, .257 ISO) and Yasmany Tomas (.394 wOBA, .260 ISO). It's also worth noting that the Padres bullpen looks pretty bad. With full understanding that we're dealing with a sample size of just over 60 IP, we can't overlook the fact that they have the sixth-worst xFIP in baseball with the third-highest fly-ball...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/25/17

Posted by on Apr 25, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/25/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitcher Clayton Kershaw FD 12700 DK 14300 Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF FD - 42.48 DK - 28.01 Holy cow, look at those prices. Gonna be an interesting night, folks. We've got a 14-game main slate that includes Coors Field, most of the better hitting parks in baseball, and Eric Thames, probably doing Thamesian things. Meanwhile, Kershaw will be eating up a mammoth chunk of your cap space and making it virtually impossible to get the hitters you really want. So be it. In cash games, he's just too good to pass up, especially in a terrible park for hitters against an average (or maybe worse) offense. The Giants lineup might just be trash. They entered Monday night ranked 25th in wRC+, and while the sample size is obviously too small to be reliable, this is really just a continuation of last year's ineptitude when they ranked 21st in wRC+ vs. lefties. If you a San Fran fan, these facts are troubling. If you're a cash gamer, they're just confirming what you already know: Kershaw is worth paying for. Kyle Hendricks FD 8500 DK 10200 Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT FD - 31.1 DK - 20.45 Hendicks is in a decent spot tonight -- the Pirates are scuffling and the park is great -- but to be honest, it feels a bit like a half measure. He's in play, for sure. The question is, where do you feel comfortable playing him? He doesn't have the goods to keep pace with Kershaw in cash, and he's a little too costly for his limited upside in tourneys on most slates. That said, +$4K in salary savings is pretty significant, so if you can't find the bats to allow you to fit CK in, I suppose Hendricks is a fine place to turn if you believe his true talent lies closer to what we saw the last two seasons than what we've seen so far in this one -- and we do. Look, we're not saying he's gonna crank out another season with an ERA around 2.00, but positive regression is on the way. His current HR:FB ration is about 2.5 times the league average, and he's excelled at limiting homers in the...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/24/17

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/24/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   COLORADO ROCKIES Per usual, you're going to want exposure on both sides of Coors Field tonight. The Nationals come in with one of baseball's most potent offenses, and the solid-but-not-spectacular Tyler Anderson isn't enough to push us off. Still, the prospect of spot-starting Jacob Turner in Coors Field is maybe even more appealing. The former first-round pick has never lived up to his pedigree, and is only cracking the Washington rotation today due to rotation shuffling with Stephen Strasburg on paternity leave. We haven't seen much of Turner since 2014 (just 24 IP in the bigs since then), but the track record tells us he can't get major league hitters out. In 323 career innings, he's struck out just 5.85 per 9 and owns a 4.45 xFIP. Meanwhile, the Rockies own a .375 wOBA and .215 ISO at Coors since the beginning of 2016. Also worth noting: Turner's quasi-reverse splits. He's yielded a .371 wOBA vs. righties in his career, compared to .321 vs. lefties, but his xFIP (4.76) is actually higher against lefties due to the fact that his Ks and walks are virtually equal in the split. All that we take away from that is that everybody's in play for Colorado today. TEXAS RANGERS The Rangers offense hasn't been great this season, but there's still plenty of GPP goodness in this lineup, and Phil Hughes should accentuate it. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a long history of HR problems, and Globe Life Park is one of the better hitting environments in baseball. Hughes lives in the strike zone, but that's about the only nice thing we can say about him. Dating back to 2015, he's struck out less than 6 per 9, with a 34% hard contact rate and 1.7 HRs/9. He's also close to split-neutral, with a .353 wOBA allowed vs. righties over than span, and .348 vs. lefties. So, pretty much any Rangers bat you like is in play here, but the projection system is highest on Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli and Rougned Odor, each of whom come with plenty of upside. Fire...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/24/17

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/24/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Francisco Liriano FD 8400 DK 9700 Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA FD - 29.5 DK - 19.58 If, prior to the 2017 season, you had no knowledge of Major League Baseball and no way to access historical data, you'd already know pretty much everything you need to know about Francisco Liriano, just from his three starts this year. When he's good, he's nasty. When he's bad, he gives up five runs in 1/3 of an inning. Trying to pinpoint which version we'll get in any given start is often a fool's errand, and yet here I am. Read into that what you will. Outside of Mike Trout, there's not much to fear from the Angels lineup and the ball park suppresses offense, but Liriano's upside (9.5 K/9 since beginning of 2016) is muted a bit by the fact that they don't strikeout all that much. On the other hand, they're also not walking much in the early stages of 2017, and that's a key factor if you're playing Liriano and absorbing the risk that comes with his career 3.91 BB/9 rate. Hyun-Jin Ryu FD 7200 DK 10200 Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF FD - 27.91 DK - 18.33 I mean, I guess. This pitching slate is pretty brutal. Amir Garrett will undoubtedly be a more popular option, especially on DraftKings where here's super cheap and Ryu's price is tough to stomach. But since we wrote Garrett up with the cash game picks, we're going with Ryu and calling it a contrarian play. The park is obviously a primary motivator here, because no venue is more forgiving to pitchers struggling to keep fly balls in the yard. And homers have clearly been Ryu's undoing through three starts in 2017. A couple of notes about that: 1) two of his first three starts have come in Coors Field and against the Cubs, so home runs are gonna happen. But, 2) a 54.5% HR/FB ratio is just ludicrous. Those are home run derby numbers, and Ryu's career rate is less than 10%. So, regression is coming, and otherwise, Ryu...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/24/17

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/24/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitcher Chris Archer FD 9500 DK Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL FD - 33.55 DK - 22.23 We have an interesting 9-game slate on our hands without any real safe pitching option. On a slate that doesn't offer any guaranteed 7 innings, 7K guys, you have to look towards the strikeouts. While strikeouts are typically looked at for upside, there is also a floor there with a guy like Archer. Even when he struggles, he tends to strike out at least 7 guys and end up with a decent line. When his stuff is working well, he can't be hit. In 2016, Archer sported a .304 combined wOBA along with a 10.3 K/9 and a 12.2% swinging strike rate. The Baltimore Orioles are the perfect match for Archer. They do strikeout a lot and they hit a lot of homers. Guys like Chris Davis, Schoop, Castillo, and Trumbo all held 22%+ K rates in 2016, with Davis and Trumbo topping 30%. While I certainly don't expect a clean slate here, Archer should be able to rack up plenty of strikeouts and get the win. On a slate without any pitching, it's gonna be tough fading a guy who can outscore the field by 3x. Amir Garrett FD 7700 DK Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL FD - 28.02 DK - 18.62 Man, this guy is something. While he is just a rookie and every sample we have on him is small, he's been phenomenal. In 3 starts, he's struck out 21 batters and allowed just 4 runs. He struck out 12 Orioles in his last start and saw an insane SwStr%. He's also held a .088 wOBA against lefties and a .252 against righties. While neither are likely sustainable, I have a hard time staying away at this point. The Brewers are mostly right-handed, but do strikeout a lot and have less HR potential against southpaws. Even though the Brewers have been on fire lately, they still hold the league highest 27.5% k rate. Garrett is a bit too cheap on both sites and lets you pay up for a few extra Coors bats. Without the only real opportunity cost being Archer (a similar pitcher) who is more expensive, Garrett...

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