What an interesting weekend it's been thus far for the NCAA tournament. The way things have shaped up, we've basically got the ACC tournament on one side versus the best from the other conferences. I can honestly say I've never seen 4 teams from the same conference in the Elite Eight, so it's certainly been a tournament to remember. Today we've got you covered for the 4 game slate that covers the next two days to see who gets to punch their ticket to Houston and the Final Four. Let's get it going.
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Elgin Cook
FD - 8500 DK - 7800
I've been on this guy the whole tournament, and he's been very consistent throughout, hitting at or above 3.5x value each game of the tournament. Cook gets a nice matchup today against an Oklahoma team that has tremendous guard play, but below average play from their bigs. Cook is the type of versatile big that should be able to take advantage of his matchup with Spangler, and he should really be able to exploit his quickness and ability to play from the perimeter. It can be difficult to pick out guys from Oregon's crowded front-court rotation, but Cook has been the most consistent. He doesn't have quite the upside as Brooks does, but he's lower in price (especially on DraftKings) and has a safer floor in my opinion.
Buddy Hield
FD - 9700 DK - 10900
This is pretty much a straight pick for FanDuel, but I guess you can play Buddy on DraftKings if you think you can scrape together the dollars. That being said, I really think Buddy Hield is going to have a massive game tonight for a number of reasons. First, Oregon struggles to defend opposing guards, and they have been exposed numerous times this season. Secondly, Buddy Hield is arguably one of the best 3-point shooters in the country, and guess where Oregon ranks in defending the 3? 244th in the country. That is definitely going to spell trouble for the Ducks if Hield gets warm from the outside in this one. Lastly, the game has a high O/U, and both teams like to play with pace making this a good game to target for DFS. If he gets going from the outside, Hield is my pick for the guy who ends up with the highest raw score of the slate.
Malcolm Brogdon
FD - 8400 DK - 8300
This is what I wrote about Brogdon last night. He didn't have an amazing game (solid but not amazing), but I think he'll have a better game on this slate. It's kind of counter-intuitive, but I like the fact that Syracuse has a stifling defense because it means that Brogdon should see a much higher usage and scoring production since he's probably the only guy the Cavaliers have that can get his own shot against the Syracuse zone.
The aforementioned ACC player of the year, Malcolm Brogdon has been one of the best and most consistent players in the country. He's Virginia's unquestionable leader, and he's relied on heavily by the Cavaliers as evidenced by his 28.5% usage rate. Virginia doesn't have the most explosive offense in the country, but should be helped in this game by Iowa St.'s terrible scoring defense, which is ranked 248th in the country. It's hard to quantify, but great players always seem to play their best in big games, and Brogdon has proven time and time again that he can perform when the lights shine brightest. I really don't see anyone from the Cyclones being able to check Brogdon in this game, and he's my second favorite high-dollar guy tonight from a PPD standpoint.
Marcus Paige
FD - 6800 DK - 6900
The Tar Heels put on quite the clinic last night against Indiana, becoming the first team in quite some time to eclipse the 100 point mark in a Sweet Sixteen game. A lot of that had to do with the hot outside shooting of Marcus Paige, who went 6 for 9 from deep. I'm not necessarily expecting him to hit 6 triples again, but he's been showing signs over his past 10 games that his early season struggles might be a thing of the past. That being said, if he is going to get the 3-ball going, it would be against Notre Dame as they rank 302nd in the nation in opposing 3-point field goal %. I expect this game to be an up-and-down type of game with lots of scoring, and I think Paige very well could be the focal point of the Heels offense in this one. He's got a safe floor and high upside, so get Paige in all your lineups today.
Kris Jenkins
FD - 7900 DK - 7300
Man has Villanova impressed the heck out of me during the NCAA tourney. I honestly expected them to fold up against Miami, but instead they ran right through them, and look like a team that could go all the way if they get past Kansas today. A big reason for their success has been the play of Kris Jenkins, their athletic forward who has really increased his scoring and usage during their tournament run. Over his last 3 games, Jenkins is averaging 16/4/4, which are all higher than his season averages (and he only played 19 minutes in 1 of those games). I like the matchup with Kansas today because I'm guessing that Jenkins will be matched up with Perry Ellis, who simply is not quick enough to defend him on the perimeter. Now Kansas does defend the 3-pointer well, but that number is misleading because of their terrific guard defense (which Jenkins will not have to worry so much about). I think Jenkins is a safe pick to get some good value today, and has the potential for a huge day if he can get the 3-ball to fall early on.
Justin Jackson
FD - 6300 DK - 6600
This is what I wrote about Jackson last night, and boy did it pay off as he went for x5 value on both sites. I like him in this slate for many of the same reasons.
I told you I'm going heavy on the Tar Heels today, and Justin Jackson is another guy I think is vastly underpriced for the minutes and production that he puts up. Jackson didn't have a great ACC tournament which caused his price to drop down to where it currently stands, but make no mistake, Jackson is a guy who could easily be priced 1k-1.5k higher. He's Carolinas' swiss-army knife on offense, and is sometimes even relied on to initiate the offense (how many forwards have multiple games with 6+ assists?). Jackson creates matchup problems all over the court, and because his price has dropped so low you've got to give him a look in a game that should be the highest scoring of the evening.
Isaiah Cousins
FD - 6400 DK - 7600
Jordan Woodard
FD - 7100 DK - 7200
It's really difficult for me to decide between these two so I'm going to throw them both out here today. I like Woodard because he's been scorching hot throughout the NCAA tournament, averaging 18 ppg and shooting over 50% from the field. Also in Woodard's favor is that he's a 46% shooter from deep this season, and Oregon is way below average at defending the 3-point line. Now Cousins has really struggled during the tournament (which has brought his price way down on FanDuel), but he's still got all the potential you'd like to see. He's a 42% shooter from deep on the season, and he's still getting over 10 shots a game during the tournament. I don't think Cousins can continue to struggle this long, and since buying low is what we love to do here, he makes for an interesting play for sure. If I had to pick, I'd play Cousins on FanDuel and Woodard on DraftKings, mainly due to the differences in price.
Mike Tobey
FD - 4900 DK - 4300
Isaiah Wilkins
FD - 4800 DK - 4700
Another pair of guys that is difficult to differentiate is Mike Tobey and Isaiah Wilkins from Virginia. Both of these guys saw over 20 minutes and each had great games that paid off higher than x5 value on the evening, so it's hard to say which will get the minutes in the matchup with Syracuse. My gut tells me that Wilkins is the safer pick because he's been given more consistent minutes throughout the season, and I think that Tobey is a liability when it comes to defending Syracuse's quicker bigger men. Regardless of who gets the minutes tonight they both have a great matchup with a Syracuse team that ranks 218th in the country in rebounding margin. I'm going with Wilkins today, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tobey has a good game as well.
Casey Benson
FD - 5000 DK - 5500
Not the safest pick by any stretch of the imagination, but a guy who I think could turn out to have a pretty nice game today is Casey Benson out of Oregon. Now I know that none of his numbers are going to blow anyone away, but he does have some things going for him to where I can see him getting some decent value. I believe that Oklahoma is really going to key in on the front-court today, leaving Benson with some opportunities to get some shots he wouldn't normally get. He's also a guy who sees minutes in the high 20's, low 30's, which is great for a guy at this price point. He doesn't turn the ball over much, and since Oklahoma really likes to apply pressure, I think he'll get the majority of the ball-handling responsibilities in this one (which could lead to a good assist total). He's more of a tournament play to me, but I could see you rolling him out in some cash games if you can stomach the risk.
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