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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/21/2016
Brent Holloway

Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/21/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

We've got a true split slate ahead today with an intriguing mix of arms that run the spectrum from elite to the trash heap. It should make for a fun day of DFS.

First the not-so-fun:

Weather looms in Cleveland, threatening the Mariners/Indians game. The worst part is that the chances of rain are hovering in that no-man's land between 40 and 60 percent. Blah.

Rain is also threatening the Angels and White Sox, which is really too bad. If you've got a strong gut and don't the risk, that game could be a fun one to target in tournaments with Jered Weaver and Jordan Danks on the mound.

On the night slate, monitor the situation in the Cubs/Reds game, but other than that, we should be in the clear.

Personnel

DFSR 705x90

Tournament Stacks

Houston Astros
The only real hesitation here is the cost, but if you're plugging in a cheap arm in some of your tournament lineups, you should be able to fit in the top-of-the-order guys, and they've also got some cheap guys with pop at the bottom of the order on most nights (Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena, Preston Tucker). Aside from the ballpark, which is extremely conducive to offense, we think you can pick on A.J. Griffin here. He's back in the bigs for the first time since 2013, and it's been longer than that since he was good. He hasn't yet rediscovered the command that was once his strength, he isn't missing bats, and he's always been a fly-ball pitcher. There's a lot of ways to attack this matchup, and we think it'd be best to have at least some exposure to the Houston lineup.

Los Angeles Angels
Even typing that I just died a little inside. The Angels have been brutal offensively this year; even the most (read: only) bankable source of run production is scuffling, with Mike Trout off to a less-than-Trout-like start. So why are we recommending them? It's all about John Danks, who hasn't posted an xFIP below 4.50 since 2011. He's been especially horrid this year, and his ground ball rate has been on the decline for the last two years. There's a good chance the Angels will go lightly owned due to their struggles, but we think it's worth a flyer to build some stacks around Trout, Albert Pujols and Yunel Escobar.

Sneaky Pitcher

Rich HillRich Hill

With ample high-level arms to choose from on both slates, it's especially tough to break away from the established studs today, but Hill makes an interesting high-risk/high-reward play against the Yankees. He's got big strikeout upside and as a southpaw should be able to somewhat neutralize the effects of the short porch in right. Of course, this is still Rich Hill we're talking about: a 36-year-old journeyman with a spotty track record, so he's not a cash game recommendation by any means. But the Yankees have been a middle-of-the-road offense against lefties this year, so we think he's worth a gamble in tournaments, where he'll allow you to load up on bats.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw

This is an easy one. Even on day where strong arms are plentiful, the projection system has Kershaw outscoring every other pitcher on the schedule by about 20 percent. That's a massive advantage, especially on FanDuel, where a single pitcher can account for 25 percent of a winning lineup's point total. and the Dodgers are a massive -270 favorite to get the win. The Braves are dead last in the majors in wOBA and wRC+, and they're somehow even worse against lefties so far this season (.211 wOBA). As always, Kershaw will cost you, but he's worth it.

Mike TroutMike Trout

You might to have to choose between the two, and in that case, we endorse Kershaw. But for every lineup where you can fit him in (and our optimal lineups say it can be done), we're recommending Trout. As mentioned earlier, Danks is ripe for a mashing, and Trout is still one of the uber-elite talents in the league. His numbers will soon start to reflect it, and today's a good day to bet on the breakout.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

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27 Visitor Comments

  1. will the optimizer account for the new MLB scoring system for Fanduel starting next Wednesday? – thanks for all you guys do

  2. Kershaw given up 4 hits through six batters. Early lineup sunk as usual.

    • Lol, calling a lineup sunk two innings into first game of slate like this seems premature even for my usually pessimistic self.

  3. Missed the scoring update for MLB. What’s changing?

    • FD adding decimals to the RBIs and Runs (3.5 and 3.2 pts respectively) to hopefully eliminate some of the ties happening with new scoring system

  4. 5 hits through 7 batters. Maybe he will get the pitcher out.

  5. While they are changing their scoring system, they need to provide 3 points for batters reaching base by catcher interference. It makes no sense for walks and hit by pitch to get these but not interference.

    • Yep, great call optimizer on Cleveger.

  6. I’ll take the optimizer over Kevin Roth’s Code Red weather reports any day. Weather will be weather but this guy has a video bragging about his degree’s and how good he is. He needs to back off and be a little more humble.

  7. Trout hr . Where’s all the whiners now ?

    • Lol. Yeah Early lineups on point as long as Cueto can just be serviceable on DK. FD sitting at around 150+ right now.

  8. I was an idiot and tried to be smart and started price 4x. Good thing i join quarter and $1 contests right? Escobar was a disappointment

    • Thank God for Sano. I was on the verge of a 50/50 but now with his homer I should safely cash.

  9. and i pulled grandel when he wasn’t playing.. figures right? He’ll probably out do cervelli with his 1 at bat.

  10. Joy now cueto is shitting the bed.

  11. Kershaw ended up putting up good numbers. I was worried too.. I just kept telling myself, its the braves.. its the braves… and it got better.

    So, why not stack Orioles tonight? Angels stack isn’t so hot.

  12. Getting close to cut off time and the optimizer doesn’t work. What’s up with that ?

  13. Oh david price.. and now keuchel. hoping to break even today!

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