Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/3/16
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.
San Francisco Giants vs. Jon Moscot (Reds)
Park - Great American Ballpark
The Giants have been swinging the bat very well lately with 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. I don't expect Jon Moscot to be the guy that slows them down. Moscot has sported a combined .332 wOBA over the course of his major league career. His peripherals suggest severe decline with a 5.20 xFIP, 18.5 HR/FB rate and a 1.89 HR/9 rate. What this means is that Moscot is going to start getting blown up very soon. While we don't have a huge major league sample size, his minor league numbers are far from impressive. In Moscot's last 3 years in the minors, he held respective xFIP's of 5.62, 7.28 and 4.36. I expect the Giants to get to Moscot early and often, let's get to the bats!
When looking at this Giants lineup, it is rather clear where the production is coming from. I am looking at the top 6 in this lineup for my Giants stack as they are the bats with all of the upside. Let's take a look at the wOBA against righties of each respective hitter in the top 6 of the lineup. Firstly, we have the lefties in Denard Span, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford that all sport a wOBA of .381 or higher. We then have the righties in Matt Duffy, Buster Posey and Hunter Pence who all sport a wOBA against righties over .338. If I were to pick only 4 for FanDuel, I would go with Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt and Denard Span. Vegas currently has the Giants team total at 4.71, the second highest on the day. Another huge bump for the Giants here is the ballpark. They are traveling from AT&t Park to Great American Ballpark, one of the best hitters ballparks in the league.
Miami Marlins vs. Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)
Park - Marlins Park
Here is my favorite under the radar stack of the day! Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers to start the year and there are no signs at all that he will improve. While Corbin was one of the biggest prospects in the Diamondbacks prospect, he is not going to reach his full potential until he figures out how to locate his fastball and changeup. Let's take a look at some peripherals and why I am in love with the Marlins stack today.
As shown above, Corbin has a lot of work to do. Against righties, he is giving up a hard contact rate of 40.9%, a pull $ of 45 and a HR/FB of 22%. What is is telling us is that Corbin is giving up a ton of deep flyballs to right handed hitters. While he has been better against lefties, he is still giving up a ton of hard contact and the hitters have been just missing as evidenced by the even spread on the pull/cent/oppo. The main reason Corbin is doing so poor is he is leaving his fastball either in the zone or in the dirt. Until he is able to locate the fast ball in the lower third of the zone, he is going to struggle. Let's take a look at some bats.
First of all, Stanton is going to smash the ball tonight. I will have Stanton in every cash game of mine and a good amount of my tournaments. When we get into the other bats, a few stick out immediately. Ozuna and Prado are the other 2 righties that draw my interest as they are both very good hitters with plenty of upside. The lefties on the other hand, are also great plays as Corbin has proven he is far from dominant against them. Yelich and Dietrich would be my favorite 2 as long as they are in the top 5 of the order. While the ballpark isn't ideal, Stanton will take care of that. The other guys just gotta find their way on base, which shouldn't be too tough against Corbin.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Martin Perez (Rangers)
Park - Rogers Centre
Martin Perez is another pitcher that is really going to struggle tonight against the Blue Jays. While the Blue Jays have severely disappointed against lefties to begin the year, I guarantee you they will turn it around completely and tonight is a great spot for that positive regression to begin. Martin Perez has exhibited decent surface stats as a major league pitcher. However, when you dig deeper you see the impending doom. Over the course of his career, Perez has held a 4.87 xFIP against righties with a 26% hard contact rate and 51% groundball rate. What this tells us is that while Perez gets a ton of groundballs, when he leaves it up it gets smashed. That is bad news against the Jays as they are a team that will capitalize on any mistake a southpaw makes. Let's take a look at which bats I am looking at here.
First and foremost, the big 4 are all great plays in Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki as the 4 of them are all +.360 wOBA hitters against lefties. For my 5th and final stack spot, I am leaning on using Kevin Pillar. Pillar gives you some speed and power and at the same time gives you a bat late in the lineup, which is something I tend to do in my stacks. If your core gets on base, they will be left on for the bottom of the lineup. Instead of hoping for them to hit around so your guys will get back up, grab 1 of those guys and hope he drives them in. Kevin Pillar is going to be that guy for me today as Perez is not good at holding runners and we have already talked about his other issues. The Blue Jays are in a great spot here and will be under owned due to the disappointments early in the season.
So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.