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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/16/2016
Nick Rodriguez

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/16/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and hitter stacks but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

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Pitching Targets

Note: We have already discussed Adam Conley in our main artcle. In this article we will discuss a few other options, mostly GPP options.

Kenta MaedaKenta Maeda FD 8800 DK 9700
Opponent - LAA (Shoemaker) Park - @LAD
FD - 33.92 DK - 17.85

This slate is not a pretty one when it comes to selecting pitchers, so I will rely on Vegas odds to select the top cash option. and they love -- Kenta Maeda. He is heading into this contest facing Matt Shoemaker and as a -190 favorite. I expect the Dodgers to get ahead early in this game, which will allow Maeda to pitch relaxed and with confidence.

Besides facing Matt Shoemaker, Maeda has a favorable matchup. He will be going up against the Angels, who have not hit right-handed pitchers well this season. They own a .305 wOBA (21st in MLB) and .127 ISO (29th in MLB). These guys sure struggle hitting for power, which is great for Maeda, but there is one flaw to this matchup. That is the fact that the Angels own a 16.0 K%. They are not going strikeout much, which hurts Maeda's upside, but I love his chances of picking up the win. He is a safe cash game play for me tonight.
Jordan ZimmermannJordan Zimmermann FD 10100 DK 10300
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @DET
FD - 32.97 DK - 17.16

Up next we have a guy who has been pitching out of his mind this season. He owns a 1.50 ERA to go along with a 5.7 BB% and that is -- Jordan Zimmermann. The problem with Zimmermann is not his ERA or walk %, but it's the fact that he's not fanning many hitters. He owns a 14.6 K%, which hurts his upside. He might not have that huge upside we look for when selecting a pitcher on our DFS lineups, but he sure does have an appealing matchup going up against the Twins.

The Twins 10-26 record suggests that they are not doing much offensively, and that is correct. They own a .305 wOBA (21st in MLB) (same as the Angels) and 91 wRC+ (19th in MLB), against right-handed pitching. These are similar stats to Maeda's matchup against the Angels, but Zimmmermann has an edge in one category. And that is the Twins 23.2 K% (8th in MLB). Zimmerman doesn't punch out a lot of guys, but he does have some potential tonight against this Twins offense.

It's a toss up between the two. Which do you prefer? A guy with no strikeout potential going up against a team that strikeouts a ton (Jordan Zimmerman) or a guy with K upside, but is facing a team that does not strikeout often (Kenta Maeda). The choice is yours... These are the (safest) plays of the night.

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Jon NieseJon Niese FD 7000 DK 5800
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @PIT
FD - 32.77 DK - 17.67

I'm going to start off by saying that I know that is not a picture of Jon Niese, [but] what if this is a sign? Does this mean that we get a different type of Niese on the mound tonight? The picture certainly suggests that. I think it's worth a shot, especially with no true ace on the mound tonight.

On a serious note -- I like Jon Niese from a matchup perspective. Their two best bats: Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are lefties, which gives the southpaw an advantage already. All in all, the Braves are awful against southpaws. They own a .232 wOBA (30th in MLB), 40 wRC+ (30th in MLB) and 25.9 K% (3rd in MLB).

Jon Niese is certainly not the most consistent pitcher on the slate, but he has a beautiful matchup and I will roll the dice on him in GPP's. He has some serious upside, as the Pirates know how to get on the board (potential to pick up the win) and the fact the Braves own a 25.9 K% (potential to rack up the K's). Like I mentioned before -- the picture indicates that we will see a different guy on the mound, so I will use that as my narrative on Mr.Niese. It's worth a shot!
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10 Visitor Comments

  1. Optimizer acting up? Can’t highlight by category (salary, team, points, etc), can’t choose number of results? Hope it’s not on my side. Weird.

    • We pushed through updates last night that seem to have caused issues in other places. We are working to resolve now.

  2. Hey dough, I just upgraded to DFS pro, any article on the best approach to Generate lineups ? Is stacking 2 teams better or simply all game ?.. for tournament play.

    Thanks
    Luis

  3. Is Conley a good option for a freeroll? Or should I go maeda? Thanks! A repose would be awesome

  4. Tough call for a free roll.. I would go Conley, he will be lower owned

  5. The Optimizer helped me at the beginning of the month and a good tool for roster construction,but decided to not use it recently and started to win money.Maybe it was talking me out of my gut plays.Just do not overthink your picks.Still think it is a great building tool

  6. Like Conley over Neise.Think the Angels will hit the Dodgers Pitcher tonight

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