Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Charlotte Motor Speedway - Concord, NC
Track - 1.5 Mile Intermediate (24° of Banking)
One round down, three to go before the Monster Energy Cup Series Champion will be crowned. Four drivers(Newman, Dillon, Kahne, Kurt Busch) were eliminated as we enter the round of 12 that starts this week at a familiar track, Charlotte Motor Speedway. The second round is similar to the first as drivers and teams get three chances to pick up a win and advance on to round three. As I mentioned at the start of the playoffs, each driver who has gained a "Playoff Point" throughout the season and the first round will carry those over through this round and next. Before getting into the trends and pre-qualifying picks, let's take a look at the 12 drivers and their point totals going into the Bank of America 500 this Sunday.
The biggest takeaway from the standings above is the gap between first and 12th thanks to those Playoffs Points. Martin Truex Jr. has nearly a full race advantage over the bottom four drivers and while you would think that would allow him to somewhat sit back and play it safe, I see it the other way. I think it allows him, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson to be extra aggressive when fighting for a win as they can afford a DNF with such a big buffer in points.
Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.
Is anyone surprised to see Martin Truex Jr. top the list at any intermediate track? He comes back to Charlotte with a win and four Top 5 finishes in his last five races with a series-leading 756 laps led, more than 500 more than second in that category. He should most definitely be at the top of your list this week. His teammate, Erik Jones, has only raced here once but showed he can be very consistent as he started 7th in the Coca-Cola 600 and finished 7th. Kurt Busch returns to Charlotte as the only driver over the last five races to finish Top 10 in each and he also has one career win here. Speaking of career wins at Charlotte, it also comes as no surprise that Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with eight wins and despite not making the Top 5 above, his teammate Kasey Kahne has also been terrific here with four career wins and a 13.6 career average finish. Denny Hamlin also stands out here as he makes both lists despite no wins as he has finished Top 5 three times in his last three races and seven times in his career with a 12.8 average finish.
Over the last 32 races at intermediate tracks(since the start of 2015), Martin Truex Jr. has been dominant winning seven times, leading 2,024 laps and has a 7.9 average finish. Looking at just the 2017 season, he has been even better averaging 96.2 DraftKings points per race which is over 40 more than Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson who have also been terrific this season. Harvick also leads all drivers with 16 Top 5 finishes since the beginning of the 205 season with an 8.8 average finish. Closing out the Top 5 on the list are teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano who both have multiple wins but have somewhat struggled in 2017 with just over 30 DK points per race on intermediate tracks.
Martin Truex Jr. won the opening race of the Playoffs at Chicagoland with Kyle Busch following that up with back to back wins to close out the first round. They have been dominant over the last six races as well, both leading over 500 laps and averaging over 74 DraftKings points per race. If you aren't starting a lineup with one of the two of them you might need to rethink your process. Kyle Larson is another driver who should be on your radar each and every week as well as he has recorded four Top 5's and a 6.0 average finish over the last six races and has also added 385 laps led and an average of 69.8 DraftKings points per race. Jimmie Johnson is one driver who has had issues with qualifying lately(17.0 average start) but has made up for it with place differential with a 9.3 average finish over the last six races. He is overdue for a win or at least a bunch more Top 5 finishes. After all, Playoff time is his bread and butter.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)
I pretty much made the case for him above as he has a win and four Top 5's over his last five races here with a whopping 756 laps led. He also dominates the intermediates and is averaging just under 100 DK points per race on them this season. He will be in almost all of my lineups regardless of practice and qualifying.
Denny Hamlin ($9,200)
Denny has yet to win here at Charlotte in his career but has three Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last six races here. Outside of the 35th place finish last week has been red-hot down the stretch with six Top 5 finishes in his last eight races. He has also seen his salary drop down into the low $9K range for the first time since Watkins Glen making him a top play in all formats.
Ryan Newman ($7,100)
Being eliminated from the playoffs has helped his salary drop even more this week but that isn't the only thing that stands out. Of all the drivers priced under $8K only he and Erik Jones have averaged over 40 DraftKings points per race over the last six races and he returns to Charlotte with one Top 5 and four Top 10's in his last six races.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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