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Embiid is obviously the biggest shot-taker on this offense, so his absence is felt everywhere. Aside from the entire starting lineup getting a couple extra shots, Richaun Holmes and Amir Johnson will pick up extended minutes and are in play in all formats. Trevor Booker would the other guy to get minutes, but he's out too, so Johnson and Holmes will see 5 to 7 minutes extra on top of the bonus they are already getting with JoJo out. Against a Bulls interior that doesn't intimidate a fly, there are in play everywhere. ben Simons, J.J. Redick, and Robert Covington all see an uptick in usage and are viable plays, but not musts.
Sweet Lou has been the main scorer for this team with Blake Griffin out, so it'll be interesting to see how this goes. They will get Austin Rivers back and we know he likes to shoot, so it's interesting. Wesley Johnson is another guy who gets minutes and will have to be replaced by some very cheap guys. Sam Dekker and C.J. Williams will both see over 25 minutes, but it is against the Spurs. Nobody is a must against the Spurs, but there's some concrete value on this Clippers team. I will have some exposure in cash games, but doubt the upside with the match-up.
Steven Adams is obviously a huge piece of this team. So much so that he doesn't even have a backup. Dakari Johnson saw only 14 minutes last time Adams was out and you can't trust him anywhere. Patterson and Grant both saw under 25 minutes as well, so I'll be staying away. Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George will all see a few extra shots and are solidified into minutes as the Thunder will likely go small.
These guys are the only ones with much skill in the Utah frontcourt, so there's going to be some issues. For one, James Harden is going to have a big night. This Jazz team is an entirely worse defense with Gobert out and especially at the rim. Minutes-wise, it'll be Epke Udoh and Jonas Jerebko to get most of them. They are both in play against a fast-paced Rockets squad. We also have to look at the status of Clint Capela. If Capela is in, these guys are slightly worse plays. If he's out, they'll be facing big men with similar skill sets and will be virtual locks for cash game value. Udoh and Jerebko are 2 guys I have a lot of exposure to. You then get to Donovan Mitchell, who's going to take a ton of shots. He will be one of the higher-owned SG's on the slate and rightfully so.
Johnson isn't a guy we target a lot in DFS, but he plays a lot of minutes and touches the ball a lot. With Dion Waiters and Dragic both questionable, this is a game we would have liked Johnson. Instead, it'll be Kelly Olynyk to pick up most of his minutes. He's firmly in play and one of the top PF options on the slate. We'll get to the rest of the Heat squad with the Dragic and Waiters news.
Porzingis missed last game and it allowed Michael Beasley to play 37 minutes and 46 fantasy points. I got a lot of flack for saying he could put up 40 FP every game, but he absolutely can. He just can't do it and win at the same time. He's an inefficient shooter, but is not afraid to shoot 30 times and is going to get the leash if Porzingis is out. Kyle O'Quinn and Enes Kanter would also see an uptick in minutes and usage, but are far from musts.
Capela missed last game, so we at least have a good idea of what to expect. Nothing. Please don't play Nene. Ryan Anderson is a GPP flier at best. Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker will get 35+ minutes if Capela is out again and they can be played in cash games without much worry. In tournaments, you can do A LOT better. James Harden may also be asked to shoot a couple extra times and doesn't have anyone to worry about below the rim with Gobert out.
For a guy that seems to get hurt 2 or 4 times a month, he's been old reliable for a month now. The thigh injury is here and we can't be surprised if it sticks around with a questionable tag for a week and a half. As for tonight, the match-up with the Celtics isn't great. Turner can be ignored if he plays as he'll likely see just around 25 minutes. If he's out, Al Jefferson and Domantas Sabonis will get those minutes. That may put him around 25-30 minutes and in play in tournaments. The Celtics aren't a defense I like to target, but Victor Oladipo is a monster and is willing to shoot 25+ times without Turner. He's expensive, but could hit 7- if it stays close.
Let's say all 3 of these guys sit. Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington, and Josh Richardson would all see 34+ minutes and be in play in all formats. If just Waiters or Dragic misses, the other one is in play, along with Tyler Johnson. Johnson is already seeing close to 30 minutes in every game, so anyone sitting out will boost him way up. The Hawks are an average defense with no rim defense and only 1 good perimeter defender. Pay attention to this situation as a whole and make sure you jump on the guy who ends up benefiting most.
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