LAS VEGAS, NV - DECEMBER 01: Jimmie Johnson celebratory burnout in the middle of the Las Vegas Strip as part of NASCAR Champions Week Activities in Las Vegas, Nevada on December 1, 2016. Credit: mpi34/MediaPunch/IPX
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Welcome back to another exciting season of daily fantasy NASCAR. We are now just 30 days from the 60th running of the Daytona 500 so I wanted to put together a season preview series looking at each team and driver and their average fantasy production on each track type from 2017 and their outlook going into the 2018 season. If you are new to fantasy NASCAR, especially on DraftKings, be sure to check out my strategy article coming out soon covering some basic strategy for cash games and GPP formats.
While the Hendrick Motorsports organization sent three drivers to the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, it was a disappointing season overall. They combined for just four wins(Jimmie Johnson with three of them) and saw no drivers make the final four. It was a season-long farewell to Dale Earnhardt Jr. who is stepping away from driving and into the NBC booth. From a driving standpoint, it was a disappointing final season as he didn't reach Victory Lane and only recorded one Top 5 and eight Top 10 finishes. Despite picking up his 18th career win, Kasey Kahne was very inconsistent once again prompting HMS and Kahne to part ways going into the 2018 season. The core of the race team will have an entirely new look and feel in 2018 as Alex Bowman will step into the #88 car, Chase Elliott will switch over to the #9 car, and William Byron will jump up from the Xfinity series to drive the #24 car. Let's jump in and take a look at Chaes Elliott and Jimmie Johnson's performance on each track type in 2017 and all four drivers outlook's for 2018.
The 2017 season started out on a low note as the seven-time Cup Series champion got caught up in a crash at the Daytona 500 and only recorded one Top 10 finish(Phoenix-9th) in his first six races. He made up for the slow start after that with back to back wins at Texas and Bristol(shown in video above) and grabbed a third win at Dover in June. Unfortunately for the #48 team, it was their final win of the season as they could not shake the summer funk this time around. In fact, Jimmie only picked up three more Top 10 finishes in the regular season's final 13 races. The three wins did lock Jimmie into a playoff position and with two Top 10's in the first round and one in the second round, he joined teammate Chase Elliott in the Round of 8 but that was as far as he would go in hopes of repeating as champion. Let's take a closer look at how Jimmie performed on each track type from a fantasy perspective in 2017.
While he only recorded two Top 10 finishes in six races on short tracks in 2017, he did pick up his second career win at Bristol and was an excellent fantasy asset. With poor qualifying, he picked up positive place differential in every race(+52 total) and recorded the fourth-best DraftKings point average on short tracks.
No one has been as good as Jimmie Johnson on the three one-mile intermediate tracks as he boasts a ridiculous 9.9 career average finish in 93 races. He is also the only active driver with double-digit wins at one single track and that is Dover where he picked up his 11th career win there last June. He also finished 3rd at Dover in the playoffs and ended the season with four Top 10's in six races on the track type but the 39th place finish at Phoenix in the playoffs combined with a lack of overall laps led left him with the eighth-most average DK points per race.
Considering Jimmie has been, by far, the best driver in NASCAR over his career when it comes to intermediate tracks(31 wins, 11.0 average finish), it was a disappointing 2017 season. He did record his seventh win at Texas Motor Speedway but saw his average finish go from 10.2 in 2016 to 17.0 in 2017. From a fantasy perspective, the worst part was his fall from grace when it comes to dominator points as he led just 74 laps as compared to 409 in 2016. Intermediate tracks will most definitely get a ton of attention in the #48 shop leading up to the 2018 season.
It is no surprise that Johnson's best track when looking at average finish(7.1) is his home track, Auto Club Speedway. Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned at Fontana in 2017 as he came in 21st, his second-worst finish in 23 career races. He went on to grab a Top 10 at in the first Michigan race but came in 19th in the second Michigan race and ended up not leading one lap on a two-mile track last season which left him 14th overall in average DK points.
The plate tracks have been Jimmie's worst tracks over his career where he holds a 17.5 average finish and 2017 was no different as he had just one Top 10 and a 19.5 average finish overall. The only race he was serviceable from a fantasy perspective was the May Talladega race where he started 30th and finished 8th picking up a +22 place differential bonus and 59.8 DraftKings points.
He started the Sonoma race back in the 24th position and ended up finishing 13th which worked out for fantasy owners as he ended up with the fifth-most DK points but he didn't have the same luck at Watkins Glen. He qualified well starting 10th but couldn't get anything going during the race and finished 29th recording negative DraftKings points(-4) on the day.
To say the 2.5-mile tracks(Indianapolis, Pocono) were a disaster in 2017 would be an understatement as he finished no better than 27th and did not finish on the lead lap in any of the three races. Yikes.
2018 Outlook: Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knauss are the best driver/crew chief combination in the sport, arguably ever, and will undoubtedly rebound which is weird to say as they did win three races in 2017. I fully expect Jimmie and the #48 team to get back to their near dominate ways on the mile and a half tracks and win multiple races and I am predicting 4-6 wins overall. I also predict Jimmie gets back to the final four at Homestead and contend for his 8th championship.
In his second full season in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Chase Elliott had a very successful season with 12 Top 5's and 21 Top 10 finishes and came so close to grabbing his first career Cup win as well with five runner-up finishes. He also recorded the fifth-best average finish(12.0) on the season right behind some of the elite drivers in the sports. Elliott and the #24 team made it into the playoffs on points and all the way to the round of 8 and was once again on his way to a victory before Denny Hamlin got into his left rear putting him into the wall at Martinsville. Elliott has a bright future ahead of him and will now move into the famous #9 car that his father drove in the 80's and 90's. Let's look at Elliott's fantasy performance on each track type in 2017.
The one-mile intermediates were once again Elliott's best tracks from a fantasy perspective in 2017. He continued his near dominance at Dover with 5th and 2nd place finish and has now finished inside the Top 5 in four straight race to start his career. He has also been very successful at Phoenix Raceway(now ISM Raceway) and came away with a 12th and 2nd place finish in 2017 to give him three Top 10's in four career races. He struggled a bit at New Hampshire in 2016(34th, 13th) and made big improvements last year finished 11th in both races there. Overall, he led 278 laps(140 at Phoenix, 138 at Dover) and ended up with a +21 place differential for the fourth-best DraftKings average points per race on the season.
He may not have been as successful from a fantasy perspective on the two-mile intermediate tracks(lack of laps led) but make no mistake, they have been his best tracks early in his career. He picked up three more Top 10's in 2017 and now has finished all six races inside the Top 10 including three runner-up finishes at Michigan. He will be in Victory Lane here very soon.
The intermediate track success rate continues as we move on to the mile and a half tracks. He recorded nine Top 10 finishes in 12 races including five straight to close out the season on the mile and a half tracks and ended up with a 9.9 average finish which was a big jump from his rookie season where he finished with a 15.9 average finish. The one spot he took a step backward was qualifying as he averaged a 15.2 starting position(10.9 in 2016) but that only helped us in fantasy as he finished with a positive place differential in 10 of the 12 races for a total of +63(-60 in 2016).
The short track season started out great for Elliott as he finished 3rd at Bristol and 7th at Martinsville but finished with just one more Top 10(Richmond in September) in the final four short track races. The run in with Denny Hamlin didn't help at Martinsville in the playoffs as he led 123 laps and was on his way to a win. He really improved with his qualifying on the short tracks in 2017 averaging a 5.7 starting position which ended up hurting his fantasy output as he lost place differential points in all six races(-55 for the season).
Elliott was no better than average from a fantasy perspective on the road courses with an 8th and 13th place finish. The reason he ranks down the list can be contributed to the bonus points aspect as he lost place differential points overall and only led nine laps.
The #24 car had a failed engine at Indianapolis where Elliott finished 39th but was strong at Pocono in 2017 finishing Top 10 in both races for 60 and 38.5 DraftKings points.
Eliott picked up his second consecutive Coors Lite Pole at the Daytona 500 and led 39 laps but ended up finishing 14th at the end of the day. He didn't pick up a Top 10 in the four plate track races in 2017 and has yet to find much success on them with just one career Top 10 finish with a 21.0 average finish.
2018 Outlook: Elliott is growing into one of the sports superstars and despite not entering Victory Lane yet took a step forward in all categories including Top 5's(12), Top 10's(21), laps led(560), and average finish(11.9). He will not only dawn a new number in 2018 but also a new role as most of the veteran core of the Hendrick team is now gone with Dale Jr. retiring and Kasey Kahne moving on. My prediction is a very strong season from the #9 with Chase grabbing at least two wins and battling in the Round of 8 for a shot at Homestead. I already predicted Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase's teammate Jimmie Johnson making the final four and I think it comes down to Harvick and Elliott in the final elimination race of the season.
Alex Bowman will make his return to a full-time ride in NASCAR's highest series but this time in the iconic #88 as he replaces Dale Earnhardt Jr. who retired after the 2017 season. He spent 2014 with BK Racing and 2015 with Tommy Baldwin Racing where he combined for just two Top 20 finishes. He was unable to secure a ride in 2016 but did fill in for Earnhardt Jr. while he was recovering from a concussion. In 10 races, he recorded three Top 10's(Phoenix, Kansas, Chicago) including a career-best 6th place finish at Phoenix where he led 194 laps. Bowman also raced twice in the Xfinity series in 2017 picking up a win at Charlotte in October.
2018 Outlook: Bowman a huge opportunity in 2018 stepping into some of the series' best equipment and taking over for a sure-fire Hall of Famer. The good news is he has seven-time champion, Jimmie Johnson leading the team and Chase Elliott who stepped into a similar spot two years ago when he took over for Jeff Gordon in the #24. I don' think Bowman gets a win in 2018 and will have ups and downs but I do see 5-10 Top 10 finishes which would be a huge building block moving forward.
For the third straight season, the NASCAR Xfinity Series Champion will make the move into a full-time Cup ride. First, it was Chris Buescher in 2016 then Daniel Suarez in 2017, and now William Byron will make his way into the #24 for Hendrick Motorsports. He has made his way through the NASCAR ranks very fast winning four of the 14 races in the K&N Pro Series West in 2015 then he won a series-high seven races in the Camping World Truck Series for Kyle Busch Motorsports in 2016, and in his first year in a Xfinity car, he won four times(Iowa, Daytona, Indianapolis, Phoenix) and took home the championship after edging out JR Motorsports teammate Elliott Sadler in the closing laps.
2018 Outlook: It has been a pretty amazing story as Byron started out on the iRacing scene(online motorsports) in 2011 and now sits in a full-time ride in NASCAR's highest series. It will be a huge adjustment and learning curve for Byron in 2018 but if his fast rise is any sign of things to come, he will be just fine. I don't see the rookie picking up a win in his first season but five Top 10 finishes is not out of the question. Chances are he starts the season in the low $7K range on DraftKings and could be a nice value should he have some place differential value in those races.
Stay tuned as the Stewart-Haas Racing 2017 review and 2018 outlook article will be out within the next week. If you would like to start researching for the 2018 season, grab a copy of my race by race trends sheet below(click on the pic) showing drives salaries and DraftKings for every race last year as well as average points per track type. Cheers!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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