Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, Texas
Track - 1.5 Mile Intermediate
I hope everyone had a happy Easter and enjoyed the week off from fantasy NASCAR. This week the Monster Energy Cup Series returns with a trip to Texas Motor Speedway for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 this Sunday afternoon. This will mark the second season and third race with the new track configuration here at TMS as it was not only repaved before the Spring race last year but also seen four degrees of banking removed in turns one and two. The banking remains at 24 degrees in turns three and four which ultimately gives TMS some uniqueness among all mile and a half tracks. For this reason, I will be looking not just at the last two years and career track history but also how each driver did in the two races last season.
From a fantasy perspective, a trend I found interesting when analyzing the last three years(six races) here at Texas is that only twice has the race winner led the field in fantasy points and both times it was Jimmie Johnson. It is a small sample size but one other thing I noticed that I think can be contributed to the track re-config is that last year we saw three(Fall race) and four(Spring race) drivers start outside the Top 20 and finish inside the Top 10. There were no more than two drivers to do this in the previous four races before that and digging even deeper it only happened once in the last 14 races here dating back to 2010. There has also been at least two drivers to lead 50+ laps in five of the last six races and at least one driver to lead 100+ laps in each of those six races(two drivers have led 100+ once as well).
With all that in mind, let's jump in and take a look at some of the race trends and pre-qualifying targets.
Two names you are going to hear a lot of this week(at least form me) are Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. as they both show up in every trend I looked at. Harvick won the fall race here after starting third and finished fourth in the Spring after starting from the pole position. He led 115 laps with 74 fast laps for an average of 75.4 DK points per race on the new configuration. Truex finished runner-up in the fall race and eighth in the Spring race but led all drivers in average DK points per race last year leading 156 laps with 91 fast laps. Chase Elliott has made four starts here finishing Top 10 in all four and last year with his qualifying issues, picked up 24 and 26 place differential points giving him elite value in those two races. Young Ryan Blaney has continued to progress here at Texas throughout his career and picked up his first Top 10 last fall and despite a 12th place finish in the Spring race, led 148 laps and picked up 84.5 DraftKings points. Rounding out the Top 5 in fantasy scoring last year here at Texas is Joey Logano who started 36th and finished 7th in the fall(29 place differential points) and he also finished 3rd in the Spring race with 38 laps led.
It doesn't seem to matter what track we come to Jimmie Johnson always appears at the top when looking at career track history. No different here at Texas where he has won seven times with Top 10 finishes in 21 of his 29 races. Wow! He is also third in average DK points per race over the last three years(six races) as he has three wins in that timeframe. Leading the way in fantasy scoring over the last six races is Martin Truex Jr. who has Top 10 finishes in each of those races with 364 laps led. Kevin Harvick is right behind Truex in fantasy scoring with his win last fall and also has Top 10's in each of the last six races with 223 laps led. Brad Keselowski is still seeking his first career win here at Texas but he has been very consistent with finishes of 6th or better in four of his last six races with 339 laps led.
Whenever we are talking about mile and a half intermediate tracks, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are going to be the topic of conversation. Harvick won the first two of the year in Atlanta and Las Vegas while leading 395 laps and is miles ahead of the field when looking at fantasy scoring. Truex finished Top 5 in both those races and was absolutely dominant in 2017 with seven wins and an average of 95.5 DK points per race. Both should be at the top of your list this week. Teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have both been successful on the mile and a half tracks so far in 2018 as well as Keselowski finished runner-up in Atlanta and 6th in Las Vegas while Logano finished 6th in Atlanta and 7th in Las Vegas. Kyle Busch is the only other driver to average over 50 DK points per race on the two mile and a half tracks this season with finishes of 7th in Atlanta and 2nd in Las Vegas. He was also strong in the 12 intermediate races last year as well averaging 52.8 DK points per race.
The form rankings have tightened up a bunch over the last couple weeks since Kevin Harvick's three-race stretch of dominance. There are currently six regular drivers who are averaging over 50 DraftKings points per race and only three of them(Harvick, Truex, Bowyer) have a win in 2018. Harvick leads the way with his three wins and has been the #1 dominator as well with 433 laps led(24% of total laps). Kyle Busch leads the points standings and comes in after the break with five straight Top 10 finishes after his 25th at the Daytona 500. He has also led 233 third, third-most behind Harvick and Ryan Blaney. Last year's champion, Martin Truex Jr, is also having a great start to the season with five straight Top 5's including his first win of the season at Fontana. One of the biggest stories early in the season is Clint Bowyer who broke a 190 race winless streak at Martinsville after dominating the final portion of the race where he led 215 laps. It was his second Top 5 and third Top 10 in six races. Denny Hamlin has been incredibly consistent and currently sits with the third-best average finish(7.7) through six races and he has led laps in five of the six races with a season-high 111 at Martinsville two weeks ago.
Kevin Harvick($11,500) & Martin Truex Jr.($10,600)
I said you would be hearing a lot about these two this week and here we are. They are the most expensive options on DraftKings and you will have to build around one of the two of them in cash games and with a couple punt plays, you will be able to stack them in GPP formats as well. Harvick won the Fall race here and was 4th in the Spring and led a combined 115 laps on the new configuration. He has also won both mile and a half track races this season while leading 395 laps. Truex finished 2nd in the Fall race and 8th in the Spring race leading 156 laps and was completely dominant on the mile and half tracks last season with an average of 95.5 DK points per race.
Erik Jones($7,900)
Looking at the mid-range of salary, one name that stands out right now is Erik Jones in the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. He has a decent track record here in a Cup car as he finished 22nd in the Spring race last year during his rookie season and then picked up a 10th place finish in the Fall. He has also had tremendous success in an Xfinity car as he won both races here last year in that series and has three wins and three other Top 5 finishes in his last six races. He knows how to race in Texas!
Chris Buescher($5,900)
This pick is hoping that Buescher will be qualifying outside the Top 25 or even Top 30 this week. That is a likely scenario, however, as he has never qualified inside the Top 25 in five races here and has only qualified inside the Top 30 once(last Fall). He does have a nice track record considering the price as he has finishes of 21st, 21st, and 22nd in his last three races here at Texas.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation. Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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Xfinity series cheatsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pFrfBTkLvWzKXU-tQly9vbRaqOi-LL2QmuaCsFBGfLU/edit?usp=sharing