Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

02/07/2019
Doug Norrie

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday 2/8/19

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Point Guard

Collin SextonCollin Sexton FD - $5000 DK - $4500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.22 DK - 30.9
I mentioned Sexton as an interesting cash game consideration in Tuesday’s picks and it turned out he was one of the plays of the night. The reasoning behind Sexton was the Cavs were playing with limited personnel and they’d been fine running him major minutes. That, combined with a chucker-like usage rate had him as something of a high floor play at his price. He finished with his best game of the season, dropping 27 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Dude threw up 24 shots and we could see more of the same going forward. Cleveland shipped out Alec Burks, are without Cedi Osman again and are barely putting an NBA team on the court. They’ll likely continue giving their rookie PG the reins going forward and if that’s the case then he’s a major bargain.

Tyler JohnsonTyler Johnson FD - $4700 DK - $4300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.31 DK - 23.68
Jerryd BaylessJerryd Bayless FD - $5300 DK - $5600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.44 DK - 29.73
These are two of the question mark point guards going on Friday and both are reliant on injury news coming our way early. Tyler Johnson was traded to the Suns and will start at the point. The key here is having Devin Booker sit again. If Booker plays, then I’m less intrigued by Johnson. But if Johnson's running the point in this offense, there’s a good chance he plays a ton of minutes if Booker is out and could be a serious buy-low candidate in a totally new scheme. I’m excited to see how this one plays out.

Meanwhile, Bayless’s value is contingent on the statuses of Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose. The former was a later scratch on Thursday and has struggled to get back on the court consistently. Rose is also dealing with injury issues, leaving a bulk of the point guard duties to Bayless. He was struggling in the game against the Magic and then left early with a toe injury. Stay tuned to this situation. If he plays, I think he’s still very much a value. But if he’s out and the other guards are as well, then Isaiah Canaan could be a great punt play.

Shooting Guard

Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins FD - $6000 DK - $6000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.99 DK - 32.27
Much like the case with Bayless, for our system, the value in Wiggins is if Teague and Rose are both out. Wiggins can, for sure, disappear on you on any given night. But there’s usage to go around with the Timberwolves’ backcourt in shambles (assuming everyone sits on Friday). Dude put up 28 shots on Thursday against the Magic and finished with 23 points and nine rebounds. The usage is likely a little out of bounds, but he was more aggressive than usual in demanding the ball and taking it to the rim. It’s a good sign from a guy who looks way too passive more often than you’d like out of a max contract guy. And I don’t want to get sucked into one performance, but I’m encouraged about playing him here against a very weak Pelicans’ team.

Luke Kennard makes for an excellent DraftKings pick if he’s the Reggie Bullock replacement in the Pistons’ starting lineup. He’s coming at the minimum there.

And here's the thing, shooting guard on FanDuel is a moderate disaster after Wiggins and potentially the Pistons' situation. I'm going to roll through some of the other considerations with the positives and negatives of each.

David Nwaba would be interesting as a punt if his minutes' restriction was taken off. He's okay on a points-per-minute basis but with all of the injuries he's been very limited.

I'm very interested to see what happens with Bogdan Bogdanovic now with Shumpert out and Harrison Barnes in. If the minutes creep up over 33 OR he enters the starting lineup with Bjelica moving to the bench because Barnes plays the four then we are really cooking.

With Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker gone, I suppose there's some chance Zach Lavine can sustain these prices.

 

 

Small Forward

Justise WinslowJustise Winslow FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.96 DK - 31.6
With Tyler Johnson shipped off to the Suns, that should (theoretically) open up even more ball-handling duties for Winslow in the short term. The Heat are dreadfully thin on guards with Winslow and Josh Richardson now taking on a majority of the point guard work. Over his last five games, Winslow has averaged solid usage with 11 shots per game though he’s been bad from the field at only 35%. He’s shooting 43% on the season, so it stands to reason there’s some regression coming on his points. This is coming from three as well where he’s shooting 32% in the short term, but 38% for the season. I do think there’s going to be plenty of opportunity here for Winslow with the Heat guard situation looking so thin. I think you can consider Josh Richardson as a big minutes candidate on Friday against the faster-paced Kings.

Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes FD - $5500 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.82 DK - 28.06
Like I wrote in my trade deadline recap, I kind of want to be bullish on Barnes’s opportunity here coming to a new team. The Kings were sort of desperate for this kind of long wing and I think he’s a candidate to play a ton of minutes in their new rotation. They shipped off Shumpert and have shown no faith in wanting to play Bjelica reliable minutes. This could really mean a ton of run for Barnes who is versatile in his defensive obligations and shoots the ball well. And I do think we see something of a return in his rebounding.

 

Power Forward

Blake GriffinBlake Griffin FD - $9000 DK - $8900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 49.56 DK - 51.77
On Tuesday, we took Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond into cash games in very low ownership on both sites. Griffin turned in an excellent game with 29 points, eight rebound and six assists against a very weak defensive Knicks’ team (especially on the interior). He shot 10-17 from the field and 3-6 from beyond the arc. The three-point attempts were actually a little on the low side for him (by about 10%) and he rings in as a cash game play again on this slate. The price did tick up some game-over-game but I think going back to the well in stacking these Pistons’ big men makes sense again on Friday. With so many teams in flux after the trade deadline, Detroit is one of the teams that remains relatively the same. That kind of safety means something on this slate.

Larry Nance Jr.Larry Nance Jr. FD - $6500 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.88 DK - 33.26
Nance has double-doubled in three consecutive games with an average of 12 points and 12 rebounds. He’s still coming off the bench, but the minutes have been there in the short term considering the Cavs are just basically running a G-league team at this point. His opportunity should be there going forward (though the Kevin Love status does throw things into doubt a bit). Considering how thin power forward is on FanDuel, you probably need to consider Nance even off the bench. But keep an eye out for that Love news.

Tobias Harris in his first game as a Sixer in the middle tier? Could be worth it.

 

Center

Andre DrummondAndre Drummond FD - $10000 DK - $8600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 51.26 DK - 51.23
Drummond was part of that cash pairing from Detroit and he obliged with a solid performance against the Knicks as well. We went for 17 points, 16 rebounds and five blocks against DeAndre Jordan and company. They key for Drummond all season has been just seeing the right amount of minutes on any given night. His run can get buzzed off easily in games that get out of hand. There isn’t much risk of that against the Knicks. In just 33 minutes per game this season, Drummond is averaging 17 points, 15 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. He’s a candidate to play more than that in this game and is a fantastic DraftKings pick at just $8600.

Hassan WhitesideHassan Whiteside FD - $8000 DK - $6800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.56 DK - 39.45
These last two games from Whiteside are just the kinds of things that break your heart when you start believing in them. He’s played 30 and 31 minutes respectively and averaged 24 points and 12 rebounds, not to mention the 12 and 16 game he rolled out in 20 minutes three games ago. It’s just a minutes thing with Whiteside. If he gets the run, the guy can destroy these prices. This matchup against the Kings isn’t one that should play him off the court, but those are famous last words. On DraftKings, he’s almost worth the risk at sub-$7K.

If Paul Millsap is out again, Mason Plumlee would make for another value play consideration even with the price bump.

 

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