Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course - Concord, NC
Track - 2.28 Mile Road Course
The first elimination race in the 2019 Playoffs takes the Cup Series back to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. This will be the second race here at the hybrid track, or "Roval" as most of us have labeled it, but this year will be slightly different. First of all, the cars are running the new 2019 rules package focused on downforce and the track has also added a new chicane on the backstretch.
Martin Truex Jr. comes into this race with nothing to lose as he won the first two races of the Playoffs and will be looking for redemption after having this race in the bag last season until the final turn where Jimmie Johnson took him out allowing Ryan Blaney to steal the win. Joining Truex in the Round of 12 are Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch who have clinched via points. Looking at the bubble drivers, Aric Almirola(+3) and Wiliam Byron(+2) are walking a fine line sitting 11th and 12th with Alex Bowman(-2) and Clint Bowyer(-4) lurking very close behind. The two drivers in the biggest hole entering the Roval 400 are Kurt Busch who is 14 points back and Erik Jones who is a whopping 45 points back after his disqualification last week voiding the JGR 1-2-3-4 finish.
From a fantasy perspective, there are only 109 laps in the race which limits the dominator factor to an extent. Last season, Kyle Larson started 5th and took the lead early and ended up with the most laps led(47) but a late restart crash left him with a disappointing 25th place finish(story of his last couple seasons). Brad Keselowski also led 29 laps with Ryan Blaney(16 laps led) the only other driver to lead more than 10 laps. I think we see a similar trend this race and I am projecting three drivers to lead 20+ laps.
We kind of knew track position would be important last year and it showed as each of the Top 8 finishers started inside the Top 10. What we maybe didn't see coming were all the place differential points handed out as there were nine total drivers to tally double-digit PD in last years race. Obviously, qualifying is the key so stay tuned for that coming up later today.
No point looking at track history as there has been just one previous race on this hybrid track so instead, let's look at some road course history and despite all three of them(Sonoma & Watkins Glen the others) being different there are some similarities in driving styles.
Joe Gibbs Racing has been, by far, the most consistent team in 2019 on the road courses. Martin Truex Jr. led 39 laps en route to a win at Sonoma in June with Kyle Busch finishing 2nd, Denny Hamlin finishing 5th, Erik Jones finishing 8th, and technical alliance teammate Matt DiBenedetto also had a great day with a career-high(at the time) 4th place finish. Chase Elliott dominated Watkins Glen leading 80 laps but the Toyota's finished 2nd(Truex), 3rd(Hamlin), 4th(Jones), 6th(DiBenedetto), and 11th(Busch).
Ryan Blaney is the defending winner of this race and comes in with some road course momentum as he joins Truex and Hamlin as the only other driver with a Top 5 at both Sonoma(3rd) and Watkins Glen(5th). Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson join Blaney and the Toyota's(not Kyle Busch) as the only drivers with a Top 10 in each of the road course races this season.
It has been a dream start to the Playoffs for Martin Truex Jr. who picked up wins five and six on the season at Las Vegas and Richmond and now has a 21-point lead over Kevin Harvick and a 24-point lead over Kyle Busch heading into the first elimination race. Brad Keselowski joins Truex as the only other driver with Top 5 finishes in both races and Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Newman join them as the only other drivers with Top 10 finishes in each of the first two Playoff races. Joey Logano(105) and Kyle Busch(202) have just one Top 10 each but join Truex as the only other driver who have led 100 or more laps and Keselowski close behind with 89.
*These pricks come after qualifying but before the final two practices. For my final core plays and player pool, make sure to check the members-only copy of the cheatsheet accessible through the chatroom.*
Kyle Busch
The JGR cars were going to be popular before qualifying and even more so now with the place differential upside. I am looking at Busch as my top driver this week as he will be starting 17th offering big upside and will be looking for redemption after getting hung up in Keselowski's crash last year after running Top 3-5 all day. He is also tied for the lead among all active drivers with teammate Martin Truex Jr. with four career road course wins.
Kyle Larson
I love the price on Larson seeing as he checks almost every box starting with the fact they unloaded fast recording the second-fastest lap in opening practice and qualified 7th for the race. He started 5th here last year, ran there almost all day, led 47 laps then also had a ton of damage but limped to a 25th place finish. He finished Top 10 at both road courses already this season and he also comes in with momentum as one of just five drivers with a Top 10 in each of the first two playoff races. Fire up Larson in all formats this week.
Ryan Blaney
He may have lucked his way to a win here last year but he has backed it up with a strong showing at the road courses this season. He is one of just three drivers to finish Top 5 at both Watkins Glen and Sonoma and now has Top 5's in three straight and Top 10's in five of his last seven road course races. Like last year, he qualified 9th after posting the 10th fastest lap in opening practice and with his inconsistency but upside all season, he is one of my favorite GPP plays this week.
Clint Bowyer
Despite being one of the best road course racers in NASCAR(2nd best career average finish at 11.97), Bowyer is priced in the mid $8k range on both sites. He unloaded fast posting the 4th fastest lap in opening practice then followed it up with a 5th place qualifying run which is great news for the team who is just outside the cutline going into this elimination race. I will have a ton of exposure to the #14 car in all formats.
Matt DiBenedetto
Matty D had a strong run here last year with a 13th place finish after starting back in 28th. So far this season he has Top 10's at both road courses and now is starting back in 18th providing us with some place differential upside. The price has come up but for a good reason and he is a terrific play on both sites.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheatsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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