Philadelphia 76ers' Ben Simmons (25), from Australia, drives against Cleveland Cavaliers' Dwyane Wade (9) in the second half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
After a crazy 14-game slate on Monday and a bizarre one-gamer on Tuesday, we're back at it with 12 games here. What I love is that we have only one double-digit spread. That's a DFS player's dream after a ton of blowouts on Monday and it makes the picks so much easier to make. With that in mind, let's kick things off with one of the hottest players in the NBA!
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Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 51.07 DK - 51.82
Ever since Joel Embiid went down with injury, Simmons has been one of the best players in the NBA. In fact, the Aussie is averaging 21.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 2.1 steals across his last nine games played. The most important part about that is that he's averaging 40 minutes a game in that span while handling the ball on nearly every possession. That's led to a 53-point average on DraftKings while scoring at least 45 fantasy points in all but one of those games.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.08 DK - 29.75
All of the injuries in Denver have really opened up things for Morris. While his fantasy production hasn't been great, there are signs that it will turn around shortly. When starting at point guard last season, Morris averaged 31 fantasy points per game. That looked like the guy we saw on Monday against the T'Wolves, with Morris dropping 27 DK points across 36 minutes of action. If he plays 36 minutes, we love him against a Houston club who surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. As long as Gary Harris and Jamal Murray remain out, Morris continues to be a great value below $5,000.
Goran Dragic and Dejounte Murray are both in consideration facing two of the worst defenses in the NBA (Washington and New Orleans).
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.62 DK - 41.02
This FanDuel price is simply ridiculous. If you take out one dud where Mitchell played just 21 minutes in a blowout against the Hornets, he's scored at least 27 fantasy points in 17 of his last 18 games while averaging 39 FanDuel points in that span. That's over 6X value at this $6,200 price tag and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable. What makes it even more bizarre is this matchup, with Golden State ranked 21st in defensive efficiency. Blowout potential is the only worrisome factor here but he's proven he can be valuable in many of those games when looking at the recent form of the Jazz.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 30.18 DK - 30.43
Philly players are going to be a theme in this article because of Embiid's absence. That opens up about 15 shots and a 31 percent usage rate which has forced Richardson into a much bigger role. That's really evident when you see that Richardson is averaging 28.7 FD points over his last 17 games played while playing 35 minutes a night. Getting that sort of production from a player in the $6,000-range is big news, especially considering he's likely looking at 40 minutes of action against a stout backcourt consisting of Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet.
If Paul George remains out, Lou Williams is a great play. If Kawhi is out in the second half of a back-to-back set, Williams is one of the best plays out there.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.73 DK - 33.37
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.74 DK - 33.66
Using players against the Grizzlies is always a good idea, so, let's ride both of these undervalued Celtics. While both have been inconsistent recently, these guys have been way too good to fade at these prices. For the season, Brown is averaging 35 DK points per game while Hayward is providing 32.4 DK points per outing. That would make one believe that both are approaching $7,000 but they're discounted because of some volatile play recently. The reason we think they'll have one of their bigger games here is the matchup, with Memphis ranked 27th in total defense and third in total pace. More possessions equals more fantasy points!
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 38.17 DK - 39.03
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.83 DK - 23.73
This is the final piece to our Philly stack. While Harris is an obvious choice, Thybulle is the one who remains a great value. What it's done is forced Thybulle into the starting-five, averaging 25 FanDuel points across 31.3 minutes over his last four fixtures. Any player who's averaging 31 minutes is worth a shot in the $4,000-range, particularly a guy who has some of the best defensive numbers in the NBA. In those four games, Thybulle is collecting 2.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per outing, so, imagine how good he could be if he knocked down some shots and grabbed a handful of rebounds with those elite defensive statistics. As for Harris, he leads the Sixers with a 26 percent usage rate with Embiid off the floor. That's allowed him to score at least 27 fantasy points in nine-straight games while averaging 33.2 DK points per outing in that stretch.
LeBron James is obviously in consideration against a putrid Knicks team.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 39.13 DK - 40.41
This is yet another FanDuel price that's completely baffling. Despite playing dominant defenses like the Jazz and Heat over their last two games, Bagley scored at least 36 fantasy points in both of them. What we really love is that he played a career-high 38 minutes in his most recent outing which is no surprise with Richaun Holmes injured. As long as Holmes remains out, Bagley should play 35 minutes and regularly flirt with double-doubles. That appears to be the floor here, with Detroit owning a 28th OPRK against opposing PFs this season.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.1 DK - 26.01
Here we are again with another silly FanDuel price. What we're noticing is that FD is slow to react to expanded roles and that's certainly the case with Grant. It's the injury to Paul Millsap that's really opened up things for him, averaging 26.5 FD points per game over his last eight starts. That's gargantuan production from a $4,200 player and a matchup with the Rockets is a good way to keep an athlete like this rolling. Not only does Houston own a 23rd OPRK against power forwards, they also sit second in pace and 24th in points allowed.
Nemanja Bjelica remains just $5,400 on FanDuel which is way too cheap for a guy who's averaging close to 30 fantasy points per game.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 52.37 DK - 55.35
Towns is probably the best play on the board. Not only are we talking about a guy who's seeing a $1,000 discount, he also gets a fantastic matchup. Let's start with that opposition, facing a Bulls team that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers according to DraftKings. That's even worse when you consider that they've lost Daniel Gafford and Wendell Carter Jr to injury recently. The reason we have such a discount is because Towns just returned from injury himself, struggling in his first two games back. The most recent outing is really promising though, with Towns dropping 51.1 fantasy points across 35 minutes of action against a stingy Denver defense. Those 51 fantasy points are on par with what he did before his injury, averaging 50.1 DK points per game over his first 23 fixtures.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 46.33 DK - 47.13
Ayton was finally re-inserted into the starting lineup last week and his recent form makes me wonder he was ever shifted to the bench in the first place. Since recapturing that staring role, Ayton is averaging 25.7 points, 16 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game en route to a 52.2-point average on DraftKings. That's absurd and it's more indicative of a $10,000 player. We happen to love that against a team like the Pacers, with Indiana allowing the most fantasy points in the league according to FanDuel. Just keep riding Ayton until he gets above $9,000.
If Derrick Favors and Jahlil Okafor remain out, Jaxson Hayes is one of the best values out there against the Spurs.
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