Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 14

The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report.

Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

QB/WR Stack

The Chalk - Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill, Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams

The Pivot

Kyler Murray FD 8100 DK 7200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 21.88 DK - 22.63
DeAndre Hopkins FD 8200 DK 7600
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 16.25 DK - 19.94
Christian Kirk FD 5500 DK 4700
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 6.89 DK - 8.46

While I will likely have heavy exposure to the chalk stacks above as they are all in great spots, I love pivoting the Cardinals in bigger GPP's like the Milli Maker. Going off recency bias, you likely think I am crazy here but going off the beaten path can often create a very unique core that would allow you to solo take down a GPP.

Kyler has struggled to get the yardage and production we were accustomed to seeing early in the season but is coming off a stretch of three games in which he faced the Rams and Patriots which are tough pass defenses and an improved Seahawks pass defense. That stretch of below-average performances have helped lower his price on both sites and we have seen him hit 6x value on DK at these prices a few times already.

It helps he has one of the best wideouts in the game to throw to and despite Hopkins showing a ton of frustration, he still put up 19 points last week and like Murray, his price is down leading to big PTS/$ upside. If you want to go even lower owned with this stack, roll out Christian Kirk. He is more of a deep shot threat and doesn't see the target share to make you feel warm and fuzzy but is most likely 1-2% owned and with a high 13.0 aDOT, he only needs a couple catches to crush his value.

Looking at the matchup, the Giants have been better as of late during their four-game winning streak but they don't scare me away. Over those four games, they have allowed Alex Smith to throw for 300+ yards and Russell Wilson didn't hit his ceiling, he threw for 263 yards and ran for another 45. The other two games? They were against Brandon Allen and Carson Wentz so throw that out the window(LOL).

The best about this low-owned stack is that if you are multi-entering you don't need a ton of exposure to take advantage of the leverage.

Running Backs

The Chalk - Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, James Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Myles Gaskin

The Pivots

Dalvin Cook FD 10200 DK 9400
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 21.8 DK - 23.33
Alvin Kamara FD 7800 DK 7100
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 17.47 DK - 19.55

It is pretty cut and dry who the chalk running backs are this week and I really have nothing against any of them except maybe Ekeler who gets a very tough matchup.

Of the two projected low-owned running backs I listed this week, I prefer Kamara for a couple of reasons starting with the $2000+ discount on both sites. While the matchup on paper only looks slightly better, the Eagles have leaked a lot of fantasy points to the RB position lately. They are fresh off giving up 130 yards and a TD to Aaron Jones and have given up 100+ in two of their last four and five total touchdowns to backs. For Kamara, he looked much better last week rushing 15 times for 88 yards(5.9 per carry) and a touchdown. The usage has been down but the price has adjusted accordingly leaving a lot of room for PTS/$ upside and at low ownership.

There is a good chance we get Dalvin Cook at a sub 5% ownership level this week and it completely makes sense as the Bucs have literally shut down every running back they have faced. They have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and rank #1 in DVOA rush defense(via Football Outsiders). I won't have very much exposure here in GPP formats but enough to cover the field and take advantage of the huge upside Cook provides us. He has rushed for 100+ yards six times, topped 199 total yards three times, and leads the league averaging a whopping 142.2 yards per game, 17.5 more yards per game than Derrick Henry.

The odds Cook goes off here are very low in this matchup but if the Vikings are to have a chance in this game, he is the key to that success. In a 20-max build on DraftKings, I will likely have Cook in two lineups(10% exposure) where I fade Derrick Henry and in one of those I will stack Cook with Ryan Tannehill and the Titans pass game.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!