Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) dribbles the ball during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Philadelphia 76ers, Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019, in Washington. The Wizards won 119-113. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Wednesdays tend to be one of the best days of the week for DFS. We have nine games for this slate and a ton to talk about. Once again, there are expected to be a ton of absences, and we're going to bank on that for some serious value. So, let's go ahead and get into it!
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 38.4 DK - 40.5
My first inclination was to go with Fred VanVleet here, but what's with Lowry's pricing? While he has dealt with a back issue for the last two games, he enters this matchup with no injury designation. That's fantastic news for a guy who averaged 18.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 2.7 steals over his previous three games before those two duds. That equates to a 48-point average, which seems like a strong possibility against a defense like this. The Wizards currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 30th in points allowed, and first in pace. That makes them the most fantasy-friendly opponent, considering that they surrender the most fantasy points to opposing PGs as well.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.92 DK - 45.19
Brogdon has been struggling a bit the last two weeks, but it's dropped his price way too far. We're still talking about a guy who's averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game for the season. That alone makes him hard to fade in the low $7,000s, but this matchup is simply stupendous. In fact, the Nets have allowed at least 120 points in seven-straight games, owning the worst defensive efficiency rating in that span. That means we have to love all of the Pacers, especially their primary ball-handler.
If Devonte' Graham remains out, Terry Rozier is a great play around $6K. Don't forget about the Trae Young-Luka Doncic matchup too.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 60.11 DK - 61.54
While this FanDuel price is definitely appropriate, this DraftKings price is downright silly. This guy has been playing at a five-figure level all season long, and it makes no sense why he's only $9,300 over there. What makes him so attractive is his usage, averaging 26 shots and 35 minutes a night over his last 14 games played. More importantly, he has the highest usage rate in the NBA in that span, averaging 50 DraftKings points per game. That might make his 60-point projection look a bit outlandish here but scoring at least 39 fantasy points in all but one game gives him a floor we can't overlook. It's not like Toronto's defense is the scary one we saw last season either, with the Raptors ranked 17th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.72
Bledsoe has been very inconsistent this season, but he's too good to be just $5,100 on FanDuel. We say that because he's scored at least 33 FanDuel points in eight of his 21 games this season. A lot of that damage has come recently, averaging 27 FD points per game across his last eight outings. That's really all you can hope for from a $5,100 player, especially a guy who's typically been a $7,000 player throughout most of his career. The matchup against Chicago is the icing on the cake, with the Bulls ranked 27th in total defense and third in pace.
With the late news that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out along with some other Thunder players, Hamidou Diallo (FD 6500 DK 6500) is a near-must play.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 31.89
Recent statistics will not make you want to use Porter, but this guy is just way too talented to be this cheap. We say that because he had a 35-point average over his first eight games of the season, which followed up a 27-point average in his bubble run last year. That would make us believe that this 22-year-old will eventually turn things around, and it's best to buy a stock at its lowest when it has potential like this. The matchup against Cleveland only adds to his intrigue, with the Cavs ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, now playing without Larry Nance Jr.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.56 DK - 31.4
Here we are again, with these two sites clearly not on the same page. It's FanDuel, where we really like Valentine, with the $5,300 DK price tag being more indicative of how well Valentine is playing right now. Over his last four fixtures, Valentine is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game, seeing his minutes increase in nearly every outing. In fact, he's playing 33 minutes a night over the last two games and should continue that with Otto Porter, Wendell Carter, and Lauri Markkanen all sidelined right now. New Orleans is certainly not a worrisome matchup either, ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Dorian Finney-Smith looks like a good bet for 35 minutes and could be a sneaky GPP play around $4K.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 49.79 DK - 53.04
If you don't already know, opponents are just obliterating the Nets right now. We already discussed that a bit in the Brogdon write-up, with Brooklyn owning the worst defensive rating since acquiring James Harden. That's bad news against anyone but Sabonis, especially. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 47 DraftKings points per game, dropping at least 39 DK points in 21 of his 24 games this year. The matchup and consistency make it hard to believe that his price has been descending, with a 50-spot looking like a near guarantee here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.77 DK - 31.47
FanDuel has mispriced a lot of guys on this slate, and Williams is definitely one of them. Much like Valentine, he's seeing a major boost in playing time with Porter, Markkanen, and Carter all out of the lineup. That has led to him playing at least 32 minutes in four-straight fixtures averaging 27 FD points per game in that span. That's obviously a ridiculous total from a $4,400 player, and it's hard to overlook the fact that this is a blossoming 19-year-old with loads of potential. We also can't ignore that New Orleans owns a 28th OPRK against opposing power forwards this season.
If you have the salary, Giannis Antetokounmpo is obviously a great pick.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 60.55 DK - 62.99
This one is pretty straightforward. Jokic is the best player in fantasy right now, and he's worth having in your lineup as long as you're willing to pay up. He's actually the only player in the NBA with an average north of 60 DraftKings points, scoring at least 43 DK points in all but one game this season. What's crazier is the fact that he's been even better recently, scoring at least 61 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That's terrifying news for a subpar Cleveland defense, especially with Jokic logging extra minutes against this massive team.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.72 DK - 37.87
Horford has quietly been excellent since returning from his absence, and it's hard to understand why these DFS sites are keeping him in the low $6,000s. Since his daughter's birth, Big Al has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in six-straight games, averaging 39.3 fantasy points per game in that span. He's been doing that damage in under 29 minutes a night, and it's scary to think how good he could be if he plays 35 minutes. He actually took 20 shots and played 34 minutes in this matchup on Monday, and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup, his usage should only increase.
Cody Zeller has been sneaky good recently and remains a good value on both sites.
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